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WLT: Opened Lower…I Warned It Was Too Early To Chase Down Or To Be Aggressive Short…But the Close Did Surprise Me…

April 8, 2008 7:07 PM

It looks like WLT is an avoid here on both sides of the trade since it closed positive. You could short it under $72.98 somewhere and see if it clears. The market maker was ahead of the curve and opened the stock low….they knew the shorts were likely to pounce if they they opened it at $69-$70. So they opened it low enough to take the easy short money out of the game at the open. I would need to watch tomorrow’s action and see where it is to be sure here. But anything near $72 is an avoid long here, IMO. The risk/reward long there would be very poor - at best. it looks to me it would need to stay below $70 for an extended period to maybe spell a little trouble…. Like i said yesterday…it “looked” a little early to get aggressive short AND I didn’t think the market would sell off BIG…. It just doesn’t “feel” like it wants to here….

Anyhow…we will chalk today up as a smart market maker…He knew trouble was brewing, just as I said…. You could have made a $1 or $2 today is shorted at either $69 or $70 as it fell off those highs to about $68 later…better than nothing, bu not what i was looking for here…. I will look at it again tomorrow and see where we are… But the bias is still avoid long, and look to short it….but the chart still looks early to take it down here…

At least my call to be very careful long AAPL near $160 is working dollars instead of pennies….down another $3.00 plus today… to close at $152.84…. .Thats $7.00 to the good on my warning to avoid $160.00 area…

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