Today’s Call: Long The Market, Long Financials, Long XLF, Unlike Yesterday….Long If Gap “Fades”
April 16, 2008 8:59 AM
The market is likely to be bought today. It appears that any and all checkdowns, especiallyy early should be bought. Pick your favorite stock and be long if market checks down early today. Mid 1330’s should be bought on checkdowns on the futures here, but i don’t think we are going that low. I am long pre-open at 1345.50. I would rather be long lower here….but have to take what I see. Housing data was brutal again, but people are ignoring it. They think it’s a bottoming “process” in housing. There are 100% completely wrong…but who cares…for today.
The only way caution would be in order here today is if we had a late counter trend trade and threatened to close below the open….that would spell possible trouble for tomorrow…but I see nothing up top here to stop any rally… There could be an issue near 1352 from the previous gap down….and that is a reversal point…very careful there on the futures unless that clears late…I would rather not chase…. If the gap “FADES” today, the fill should be bought….IMO
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Futures are making a possible reversal pre-open at 1349. I would like to see this gap fade down, and then look to be long the fade here. i would be very surprised if we challenged much below 1335 here today. …
No Fade yet….I am staying long until something says otherwise…
BUT as I said…1352 is an issue….we have to clear that…ideally later to make a major push higher…
1351.50 high…I exited at 1350.75….I just do not like 1352 area here…would rather re-enter a bit cheaper here…However, this looks like a trend day higher all day …right now…I figured it would be cautious near 1352…was correct…
We would have to close out 10:30 below 1347.50 here to change my mind of trend day….
I re-entered long at 1349…I should have bought 1348.25…duh
Hmm….It looks like if we get under 1347 here, the gap could fade….more caution here…but as long as we do not close out 10:30 below 1347.50….we have definately NOT seen the highs…IMO
Ok, there was the 4.5 point spike higher once 1352 cleared….we still have not seen the highs IMO…stay LONG
More caution now….it made a new high of 1357.75….backed off big…if we close out 11:30 below 1353, this could be a new very important high here….watch for 1347 if that happens…if we clear that, then this gap will likely fill and FAR more caution would be in order…especially if 1347 clears late…
Todays high was the previous low before it gapped down…I thought there would be some problems in that area…near term as those longs would love to escape…. caution long here if trading futures near the high ….until it clears. IMO.
It looks like if we clear the high, we will run much higher here…
June futures volume is VERY low…I am getting a little skeptical…. But unless we get under 1346.75, this should trade higher all day….
Well, it was a trend day, as i mentioned early, and we finished at the high, as I figured was likely. I was looking at other stocks, and didn’t look back at the futures until after the close. Today was pretty much a classic trend day higher…These comments were for June futures…where far more caution is needed. My call to be LONG almost anything….including financials, 30 mins pre-open… was obviously correct…..
I will take a bow on my call to be long, long, long today way before the market even opened….:o)
What do you think of Regional Banks? I own some KRE at the moment