Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important
August 25, 2008 9:30 AM
The open is 1285. 1282.75 is “reasonably” important. In addition, the market may try and bounce if we make a reversal low. Existing Home Sales 30 mins in. This is likely to be a difficult day to trade. The high should be near 1290 based on trends opening in this range. Friday’s high is key. We would have to clear that high and HOLD it to advance.
Closing Recap: Yes, it was a difficult day to trade IF you did NOT follow my gap rules - like I didn’t. I was convinced the market would try and reverse near 1275 and was long and got smoked there. I then reversed course and went short. I then got head faked off the initial low and was long above it. The bottom line is this. There was ONE trade and ONE trade only today if you follow my gap rules. The gap was SOLD. Period. When a gap down is sold, do NOT try and pick a bottom - ever.
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I went long, but only scalped .75… 1282.75 held thus far ….
Im short 1282.75…. it may try reverse, still early to know…we will see… but 1285.50 is key to the upside as i see things
Going to get whipped on the short, apparently…im leaving it unless we clear 1285.50
The charts clearly say too early to chase down, sooooo was stupid to do so…this is likely to take time in this range …
Bingo…down she goes
Still early in the game to chase down… 1285.50 is benchmark, as I see things…
I covered at 1281.50…just because its early
Ugh….it went lower, of course… but i still think it may reverse…tooooooo early to chase it down there, IMO
We “may” have a tight range today, at least early on. We have a trendline in mind 1270’s or so, and a clear trend break under 1290. We may trade within that range today, at least early on.
If we hold this low and clear 1285.50 I believe the gap will fill and we will make a run at 1290 or so…
This is a battle between the high and low… we “may” reverse near 1280 even if we clear the low….
Hmmmm low cleared…..so short pops under 1285.50 is likely the trade, we HAVE to clear the high
Trying to reverse…shorts should cover if we clear the high… just not sure how high we will go if that happens…. 1290 would be my guess
actually 1292 would make a full gap fill
It may and try and hold this low….we HAVE to clear the high or do NOT be long in that range as i see things..
This is a VERY clear battle…high and low…as I see things..
shorting under the under would have worked, thus far…… bounced off 1284 several times.. but this has not been decided yet…as i see things..
Market is deciding…
I still think we are eventually going to 1277…we will see…
People are buying above the low… if that clears, we should see a 2 point pop down or so
bounced a tick above the low….
bounced exactly off it…come on get down there
cleared….
ok, there is the 2.5 pop down once the low cleared….
I dont believe we can reverse before 11:00
But there is the 1277 area as i aid we were going… low is 1277.50, thus far..
1277…
Friday gap has completely filled… how much lower im not sure
This should not be the low…but may reverse in that range, better trade is to continue to short strength if we do not make a new low…as I see things
I still believe we CANT make a low before 11:00
We should NOT clear the high UNLESS we go lower first
New low 1276.75… it may try and reverse in here, not certain of it
Skeptical of any real strength can come of this… I should have shorted 1284 and went and played golf…. as I said…duh, lol
We have to go lower but i still believe chasing down here is likely a mistake as I just dont know how low we will go…
Mid 1275’s is a direct hit on a key sma and we have a daily trend in this area i believe..
One of my volume lines is pointing up…some people apparently expect todays low to be in this range…
If they want to make a low that has power, they should make a new low after 11:30 and reverse as i see things..
hmmmm…. not sure…it is possible this is the low…I just dont know…but it would have far more power if we made a new low and reversed as i see things..
ok, new low, lets see if they are serious about stopping a meltdown…
hmmmmm still unsure…. it looks like this low may need to hold to avoid some measure of panic…but still not 100% certain of it
I went long 1276.50…. but possibly dumb… but “if” this is the low, then the “potential is pretty high to be long here..
hmmmm I get the Dumb and Dumber award for today
Thats why you HAVE to have stops…I had the stop at 1275.25…and then reversed and went short…
AND we did get the panic I was looking for if it cleared…spiked down 6 and counting…
1260.50 HAS to hold or we will likely see BIG panic
We better reverse soon…and should…just not sure…. If we clear 1260.50…two choices….immediately reverse and go positive…or total meltdown…thats how i see things..
We should reverse after 12:30 above 1260.50… if not….I believe we may see panic
I believe we may put in a firm low here…we better…
Figured it would try…low is 1266.25… there WILL be attempts in here to reverse it…I would guess they will be successful in defending 1260.50..
I “think” that is the low…but its too early to know
If short I would cover and consider going long here…just an “early” hunch
If we clear 1269 that SHOULD be the low
If this low doesnt hold, then I dont know where it will come, obviously……we have to get over 1269 and hold this low to possibly have todays low, as i see things…
cleared…hmmmmm going to have to wait for a firm reversal in here, obviously
man I thought I had that low called….will just have to wait this out and I still believe we should reverse (or better) in here somewhere..
We do have another important low at 1263.25…. so maybe above that…I would love for it to clear 1260.50 and see if we get panic…just dont think it will happen
grrrrrr…they better not make this the low, thats going to tick me off
If thats the low, then this is going to be difficult to trade other than short after a “false” rally”
That could be the low as one long term chart did make what “can” be a firm low… but makes me grrrrrrrrrrrrrr as I wanted a clear signal
Just going to have to wait this out…
Ok, look for a possible reversal in here above the low…
im long 1268 as i believe they will attempt to make a clear reversal above the low… we will see..
I scalped and out until i get confirmation..
Some charts disagree….so may get some choppy action here…. my personal view is we need to clear 1269.75 here
ok, saw a little pop …I believe that is the low, i went long again
We “could” reverse again …I wouldnt marry this thing…. was hoping for a run to 1275 or so…ideally
son of a bbbbbb…. should have scalped and ran, apparently…
well, was wrong….that dang thing shot up to 1272.25 and shot straight down…. not sure what to make of this now…ugh… the low has still held but it appeared that 1267.50 would hold here… no dice
This doesnt look good now…thats for sure…
If the low doesnt hold (and I personally hate lows like this) then 1263 is next target i believe..
ugh….what a pile of bs
Low held by a tick…
Low cleared, but I am guessing shorts will take profits before the close…so a sudden spike up here would not surprise me
yep, theres the closing spike…