Oil Inventories Fall, Oil Spikes, We Have To Finish Positive Today (see comments for intraday updates)

May 29, 2008 10:41 AM

Oil Inventories fell, oil spiked off the lows and the market spiked down temporarily. We never made a reversal off the high, so i went long at 1389.75 and got out at 4 points. The key sma was right on that and once the market stopped falling for a second right on it, i went long.

Watch out for a reversal off a new high here. If we get one and it takes us negative late in the day, we may get some pressure. If we are decedidely positive late, buying should pick up, and vice versa. Unless oil goes crazy, I had posted that I do not believe we will reverse today. Tomorrow is more likely.

I added a screenshot of where I went long and exited. Obviously I should have left the initial trade long, but I was just taking a quick bounce and then see where we were going from there. I exited too early the second long also, but I am very leary in that range….

This is a 5 min chart. I pay “some” attention to it, but not as much as others.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures

Comments

16 Responses to “Oil Inventories Fall, Oil Spikes, We Have To Finish Positive Today (see comments for intraday updates)”

Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 10:44 am

Unless Oil really spikes, its going to take a reversal to take us down today. The recent low was right on top of 2 key SMA’s i watch…tjhat will give bulls more confidence until those lines are cleared. That may happen late…but not likely anytime soon.
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 10:48 am

I went long again at 1395.25 and doubled down at 1395. We would have to close out 11:00 below 1394.50 to put in a possible top here…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 10:52 am

Watch out near 1399.50-1400. That area may be an issue there.
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 10:54 am

1398.50 high thus far…i do not like being long up here. I exited. It is far too close to possible trouble and it looks extended to me
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 10:57 am

Ok, it backed off 1399…You can see caution up there…as i said…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:00 am

Ignore the hype on oil, it should not clear the highs today. It would have to finish strong today and then maybe make a run at it tomorrow or in the future. It has done exactly what i have said…Once 130.50 cleared, it made a big spike lower….and has traded down for the most part since…
Scott on May 29th, 2008 11:00 am

The math does not add up on the oil inventory numbers. All reports say we are using significantly less oil and imports have stayed steady. So how can we all of a sudden be short 9 million barrels?
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:01 am

There is no reversal off the high, but 1399.50 - 1400 is a big issue here, IMO. If we clear the high here, be VERY careful…a reversal may happen
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:13 am

In theory, if we get a foreceful reversal here, it would be after a new high made after 11:30.
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:15 am

1399.25 high…be careful here…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:17 am

It is sitting here…not moving…they are deciding….traders know this area may be a problem…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:21 am

If we clear and hold 1400…I believe shorts will cover big and we will go to at least 1408…possibly higher….but people going long at 1399.50 here are crazy…NEVER be the Lone Ranger…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:22 am

Here we go….it had better hold here….it backed off 1399.50 and this may cause problems…We HAVE to clear it now or the market may go negative…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:24 am

Down 2.5…thus far exactly off where i warned… 1399.50….
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 29th, 2008 11:37 am

I am done for the day on the futures…but be very very careful here…we have a reversal off the high. If this is the high of the day, then i believe we may finish negative…we HAVE to push through 1400 here or this is trouble…
Tom@StockBlade.com on May 30th, 2008 12:47 am

Scott, the oil numbers are bogus…just like our inflation numbers have been. I was the FIRST person or site to say our numbers were 100% and completely false, not just off….and now other people are follwing suit. Bill gross with Pimco said this week that our inflation numbers are wrong…. uhhh duhhh… i said the same exact thing 3 months ago and you get 100 million a year …why?

Anyhow, the oil numbers are bs. There are strong rumors, probably fact, thnat OPEC nations are “parking” oil tankers in the ocean prior to inventory numbers to “skew” the numbers and make it appear that inventory is tight to keep up price.

Is this likely? hell yeah. They may be terrorists, but they aren’t stupid.