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MSN Money’s Jubak: Our Review Of His Current Picks

May 4, 2008 2:05 PM

confusedgraph.jpgI think Jim Jubak is a rather reasonable guy with some sound advice and worth reading. This may sound odd from me, as i normally blast virtually all of the talking heads as complete nonsense and feed off market chasers who eventually get stuck holding the last card in a house of cards.

But , my opinion of Jubak is someone who is measured and reasonable. Therefore, let’s look at his picks.

CHK: He added CHK on 04/22/08 at $53.68.  I said long CHK on March 26th just above $44.00, so StockBlade is way ahead of the game on this call. I also said CAUTION CHK on after the close 04/28 and it fell. I had just posted on CHK that sideways appears likely here.

USB: US Bancorp deserves some caution here as it needs to clear Friday’s high to be long up here, same as many stocks. If it slides down on no news, the range that is likely to be bought is probably just above $33.00. There are two numbers that I consider SB must hold numbers to be long, $30.19 and $31.16.

CGC: Well, Jubak is getting torched a bit on his call to buy Kinross Gold Corp.on 04/04/08 at $23.36, down 18.66% in less than a month. If you want to be long any gold plays or this stock, the trade on CGC is long right here with a hard stop below $18.00. While this appears to be a far better value than AEM, all of these gold stocks are at least mini bubbles and are trades and NOT investments, IMO.

FCX: Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold was added on 02/26/08 at $100.32 and he is up 8.8%. Ok, not great considering the volatility in these stocks. There are 2 SB numbers to be long FCX, $82.60 and $93.00. I am not a fan of it up here as there will probably be shorts under the high.

EXC: Exelon was added on 01/15/08 at $$84.61 and he is up 1.71%. Just above a money market return, so not great. The reason that the stock is trading sideways here as it has to clear the high to be long up here. It is likely to try and hold $81.61 on any checkdowns. The chart is mixed here, at best.

ITRI: Itron was added on 12/21/07 at $93.36 and is up 4.48% since. Considering the apparent risk in this stock, that is not good. It is in somewhat of a downtrend, trying to hold the $90 area. I do not know enough about the company to have much of an opinion.

ENB: Enbridge Networks was added on 12/18/07 at $38.32 for a gain of 6.97%. Not bad as the risk seems reasonable. However, it has reversed off the high area 3 times, so it is shaky here, at best. The SB number to be long ENB is $37.92.

PCL: Plum creek Timber was added on 11/16/07 at $43.22 and is down 3.63%. I am not a fan of this space because of the housing crisis. Home building is in a multi-year downward spiral i believe, and there is simply no reason to be long this from a macro look. The charts say it has to clear $44.71 up here to be long and even then $47 area is a likely short. It has to hold $37.65 to be long. Therefore, the stock has traded between those two numbers for over 2 months.  

RYN: Rayonier was added on 11/09/07 at $46.02 and is down 6.56%. This is a similar space as PCL as it related to real estate. I don’t like it, and do not want any part of it. With that said, there are two numbers to be long the stock, $35.36 and $38.86. But I am NOT a fan of anything related to the U.S consumer and definitely not housing.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Jubak 

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