Morning Call: Unclear, Risk Is High
November 14, 2008 12:06 PM
Odd opening as it attempted to hold the early gap down, basically filled the gap, and down it goes. No idea where the low may come in today, but I personally have zero interest in being long this, as i mentioned last night. The risk is just too high, as i see things. This may take days to sort out because of the huge nonsensical move, IMO, of yesterday. The move dramatically increased the risk and I just have no interest taking the risk. But that’s me, I avoid as much risk as possible. If it goes straight up, then it does. But I won’t be on the ship.
My guess is that any attempt at reversing the selling will come in days ahead, but not likely today. But what do I know, up 900 off the low on near depression news. Uh ok.
My guess is if they are going to contain the selling today, it may come above the short term moving averages which are currently near 868 or so. I still have no interest in it, even if it does hold that as dropping all the way back to the low seen in the next few days is not impossible. In fact, it may even be likely as the move yesterday was short covering that completely got out of hand near the close, IMO. But again, I just do not know and the risk is very high, as i see things.
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Its trying to reverse here, above the moving averages… all i can say to that is best of luck…lol
The moving averages are about 870 and climbing…. thats likely wy there are buyers in here…. I dont care if this thing goes up 1000, im not buying anything
I believe in this low, like not at all
Ill bet 2 nickels right now that this is not the low….possible… the Dow made a doji….not that believable… here is what is causing this, IMO… the hourly sma line is a direct hit on this low… some people will buy near that line unless it clears…. best of luck with that
If we can close out 12 EST below 8600, then that should break the spirits of those that bought this hourly sma line, most likely
someone wake me at 870, this low is nonsense, IMO
The 8400-8450 range on the dow will likely try and hold… this low is simply not believable as i see things
yawn, new lows… couldnt have guessed that… the 15 min sma line is about 8450… that “may” try and bounce there…. if we get under those sma lines today…. there is still nothing to stop this all the way to yesterdays low, IMO
875 and change is the low thus far…. yawn… I may stop watching this today as i really do not care what happens…. im not buying anything and wish those on the Titanic best of luck, lol
The sma lines are causing this support in here… as i said they are getting just over 870 and climbing… I am extremely skeptical personally
Yawn, should push to a new low….
this will be very entertaining if we can get some closes under the sma lines… and watch these knuckleahds that bought at the close yesterday squeel like pigs
new lows… yawn… I couldnt have guessed that in a billion years… ha ha
sma line is about 8470 or so…. big whip I know, lol it may and try and hold above that - for now…
Low is 873 and change… if this is going to reverse selling today… it would likely need to come in this range….. I am not buying anytihng no matter what happens, lol, but thats me
ok 872 and change.. IF its going to revedrse, it likely needs to come in here somewhere
If we can get come closes below these sma lines, as mentioned…. these longs are going to squeeeallll , lol
what did i say earlier? “I believe this is the low, like not at all” lol… that was about 100 points ago
hmmm its close to hitting the sma lines… and appears to be very little interest in reversing it, thus far… the low was a direct hit on the sma on the dow
Hmmm… very very low appetite to try and reverse…. thus far…. I see zero indication of a low here… People long this without a firm low are crazy, in my humble opinion
These lows are clearly sma bounces… I am growing more skeptical by the minute… some traders will buy those lines however… but the rejection of them appeared very weak to me
New lows… ok… I believe this better reverse right here… if it cannot… the sma lines will eventually work against them, as i mentioned in my “squeeling pigs” analogy, lol
8472 low, thus far… there better be buyers in here…it is a direct hit on the line
its trying…. humor me and lets get some closes under them…. since i have no interest in buying this, I can at least get some good entertainment out of it
trying to reverse right where i said… whether it can or not is the question
up to 8505… looks like we need a close above 8500 at 12:30 here to “maybe” see at least a temporary low
8517… this was exceptionally predicatable, thus far… another reason I am getting skeptical, lol…. toooooo predictable
If you wanted to be long this nonsense, that was probably the spot 8472…. not me though….sma lines are the only thing holding this house of cards…
yep, reversing right off the lines… yawn…
low was 869.88… what did i say longgg ago? “someone wake me at 870″… lol
This “probably” has to be the days low…. the reason is that if we get closes under this…for time… then the sma lines that were just used for this low… will turn against them… but what do i know, lol… this just feels a little too predicatable to me…. I mean i called the reversal spot before the market even opened… seems wayyyyyyyyy to predictable…. we will see…
If this low is going to hold, probably needs to strongly bounce off 872 here and head higher….
the issue here I believe… besides that i think yesterdays rally was complete nonsense… but lets forget about reality … lol… the hourly sma is above at about 880… the shorter term lines caused this bounce… the two lines are colliding… and will cause a difference of opinion I believe… but i am not a huge fan of the hourly sma lines…
yep, huge bounce off 872 to 879… hmmm… boy this has been awfully predictable… thats all i have to say about it
881
this just seems way too easy… I said we should reverse around 870… it did… said it should strongly reject 872… it did…. I mean come on, lol
If we can close out 1:00 EST above 880, a challenge to the high would not shock me
all I have to say is that this low better hold into the close…. its probably pretty clear cut here
hmmm 881
closing out 1:00 above 880 is somewhat important I believe… to freak out the hourly traders, a close below 877 would get them nervous
man this has been predictable…. predictable makes me nervous, lol
884… I see no sign of a firm high here… 870 was the reversal spot as I said longggg ago….. who knows from here…. more horrible data….getting worse by the second… people just dont care, lol… this seems very very orchestrated thus far…. I would like to see a pop higher and reverse to give them a firm number to justify selling it down into the close….we will see
Yawn… if they wanted to sell this down hard, they should have spiked it higher and reversed it…. this appears more of a trend break, thus far……. if we clear the low, it might reverse again around 865… but i wouldnt count on it
876 back to the sma line that started this mini rally
Difficult call … we dont have a firm high today as I see things… if we get one, they may shred this thing… but i dont see one… so who knows
875… direct hit on the sma line line…. hmmm…. they arent going to make this easy it appears… a spike to a new recent high and rejection would likely cause panic… this is trend break, so i have no idea
hmmm no firm high, trend break caused the pop down here… but now getting under the sma line that caused this pop…. they arent making this clear cut…
If this low clears, and cannot reverse…and we stay down for time… it would get concerning …. there is one thing holding this train weck I believe… and it is these sma lines…
trying to hold the low… not surprising as we never clearly rejected a high… ideally they need to make a firm high where traders know the line in the sand…
bounce back to 875… it would not be “justified” in taking out this low with no rejection of a high… but thats how I always view things… but anything is alwayssssss possible, lol
Trend breaks CAN win sometimes however…. and big picture can also win… any low made today is not likely the low in coming days… sooooo I am skeptical of anything today, to say the least
back to about 877… good… do as it should… I like it when the market makes sense… well other than buying on depression like news, lol
878…
879…
too sell this down, most likely, as I said… we need a firm rejection of a high…. we do not have one that I can see…
880… hmmm this has been wayyyy too predictable……. watch out for any spike above 885 after 1:30… if it reverses, they will have the number to sell it down into the close… if if if
ok… make or break time…. 883… and spike to 885 area has to hold I believe… we will see…
okkkk… there is 885… if they actually want to sell this… they are going to reverse it somewhere…..watch this crazy nonsense close positive…. hey whats news matter?? lol
887
come on reverse this nonsense….
If they want to sell this down, I think they will close out 1:45 below 882…. if if if if
If they cannot reverse it here… there really is nothing to stop this to 900 other than common sense, lol
wooo hooo 882… get down there…. I think I wrote todays script… lol… we will see
the next 8 mins “may” dictate the close… not sure
grrr back to 884
I guess if they cannot reverse this… we may go to the highs… im not sure….if they really want to reverse this, I think it needs to come right now….
the chart is strong, thats the problem here for shorts…. no firm high…. hourly chart says long… shorter term charts are long… UNLESS we put in a firm high
not going to reverse it… 887… hmmmm… the shorts may have had their chance…. and couldnt do it
well, if they truly wanted to shred it, they should have reversed it right there I believe… and couldnt… I have no idea how high we will go…. what a bunch of craziness… retail sales beyond brutal… short covering rally on brutal news…. what comedy
I still see no indication of a high… this is another trend break…. ugh… you would think common sense would come into play - eventually… but I wouldnt count on it… lol
yep… moreee buying on the sma… direct bounce…
looks to me that any “new” high is not likely to come until after 2:00 EST…. they had their chance to reverse this nonsense and couldnt do it
yep all the way to 8650…. seems unlikely a high will come before 2, we would need a strong rejection of a new high… doesnt seem likely before 2
if they want to sell this…. we would likely need to close out 2 below 882… ideally well below it… I just dont see it happening here
nope…889 and climbing
again, in theory, the “high” would have to come after 2 in my humble opinion
ok… soike this to a new high and reverse this nonsense
spikes all the way to about 895…. they are being smart… and waiting to make new highs until the last possible moment… they do not want to give the shorts any number to shred it… still no sign of a high… amazing
once again… pulling back to open the next bar well below the high to reduce the risk of a reversal, lol… what a game… nobody wants to be caught long if we reverse off a new high… so they are being very cautious on new highs
Onceeee again… same song, different dance… if they are going to sell this into the close… we should spike above 895 or so and reverse… lets see
ok, there is 895… they “may” have messed up this time… they made the “new” high very early… they are getting a little more brave…. we will see…
896 and climbing… we would have close out 2:30 below 890 to give the shorts a chance…I believe
898… this thing may just keep going… I have no idea…. nothing surprises me in the market…
900….
I would be shocked if they can reverse this here… possible… but we are wayyy above 890… if they could, then watch out below, lol
902… not sure what can stop this… probably the day high… maybe
same pattern .. spiked … backed off… to open the bar far below the high….
stillll no sign of a firm high…. I guess no amount of bad news can shake this craziness
the recent high was just under 905… amazing
that “might” be it” for the day… I have no idea…. no firm high… its possible that the open high is an issue on the futures charts… but doesnt seem likely… possible
Also, the recent high is a direct hit on an hourly sma…. you would think common sense would come into play here at some point with horrible news getting worse…… but like i said… dont count on it, lol
new high after new high…. hmmmm
geez, why dont i just trade the stupid chart… I predicted the likely low before all this nonsense even happend, lol, whatever
they refuse to make any new highs with much risk…. the one chance the shorts had… besides taking this below 870 early… was back when … and I said they had their chance and failed… ffrom here… who knows… I cannot imagine they are going to close today positive… but if you can guess this craziness you are better than me
if we clear yesterdays high… they better keep it going… if it reverses… shorts will come in…. thats all I know at this point…
new high after new high…. looks like iffffffffff they are going to reverse selling… high has to come after 3 now…. didnt I meantion that news just doesnt matter? lol, people just dont care… as dumb as that is, it just is what it is
914…
if we dont get a firm high, there really is nothing to stop this… as I mentioned longggg ago
ok, we cleared yesterdays high… one of two things is going to happen… and good luck guessing… shorts will either cover and straight up… or reverse it… I dont know which… the close is somewhat importantt now… so expect high volatility into the close…
If we can close out 3:15 below 910… my guess is they are going to sell it down into the close… we will see…this thing is going to get volatile i believe…
very strong rejection thus far… a little early…
the longs may have finally messed up… im not sure yet….
3:15 close is important on the close i believe… this thing is going break one way or another
hmmm back to 911 offf 906
this could be the last chance for the shorts… im not sure…. I think this is going to get very volatile the last 45 mins here…
the next 5 mins will likely dictate the close… or seems likely
3 mins to lift off, lol
back to 912… amazing
the shorts are trying to make this a high… I just dont know if they can…. this close is going to move I believe…
ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh it made a dji….. if this clears we may go straight up… I just dont know
my “guess” is if this high clears we may go straight up… I think shorts will flip out…. but the close is all that matters now… and you know how those days get…
the sp literally made a Doji - indecision….traders are probably not sure what to do now
looks like we need to get below 906 to maybe get the ball rolling down… but just like the market… im not sure
ok, 905…. 890 is the sma…
902….
this wasnt a CLEAR rejection…. made a doji… a strong rejection and i think the shorts would shred this here… but it was merely “undecided”
if we clear this high into the close, my guess is the shorts will completely freak out
900…
897
894…
892
891…. this area may need to hold… its a direct hit on the sma that started this move… looks like the hourly trend is about 885 however…
889… there better buyers here…
if we go much below 885 clearing the low into the close is not impossible… unlikely maybe…. but not impossible
bounce right off the line… predictable… 894…
decent bounce off the line…. that was very likely… whether it can hold… im not sure
890 back to the line….
hmmm refuses to give up the line… back to 893
a 3:45 close under 890 and we may see some panic… but the hourly trend is somewhere around 885 I think… need to look
nope… trend was above 890
887….
come on, lets see some outright panic, lol
the hourly sma is about 880… that may contain the close selling.. not sure
these closes are very difficult to impossible to predict as I have long said… huge moves come in the last hour… and sometimes in the last 5 mins… thats why you have to be very very careful
there is a lot of support at 885…. trusting support into the close is a bit risky
bounce all the way back to 893 off 885
hmmm I guess 885 support is going to contain the close selling… a bit surprised a little….
well, anyhow… another day of “who cares about news when we have charts”… lol…. have fun
why people are long when we arent going to close positive is mind boggling… but thats me
ha… 885 nonsense support didnt last… the only thing that may stop the selling is the low… or the clock… lol
880…
boy if we had a littleeee more time…. they would shred this thing into oblivion if the low cleared here
878….
what did i say earlier? “looks like we need to get below 906 to get the ball rolling down” …. uhhh ya think? lol
871….
ha…. low held by the skin of its teeth… we needed another 5 mins to have a meltdown at the close… lol….