Morning Call: Uncertainty
November 13, 2008 12:19 PM
I have not seen a firm low this morning as of yet. We are currently at 849 on the SP. Today might be tricky as it may try and hold the SP low without warning. Personally I am very skeptical the SP low can hold as i have long mentioned. We will see.
There are likely to be buyers above the SP low just to see if it holds here. So today is going to be difficult. We could break either way. If the SP low clears, then we either are going to reverse and go positive or close at the low of the day.
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*** all comments made are my opinions only, im not a professional as i have said a billion times and like cramer says do your own homeowrk lol ****
Ok, this low looks like it needs to hold…. it reversed and we may see strength here… Keep in mind it is a close day…I am still very skeptical the sp low can hold, long term… but it is what it is
again, if you think the sp low will hold and want to be long this thing… we have reversals off the lows here…. I am just extremely pessimistic as once again this seems a little fake….we will see…
If this low does not hold, we may test the SP low… I am not sure… today is tricky
the sma lines are above and causing an issue i believe…. this low is either going to hold or it isnt…if its going to be taken out, my guess is it wont last beyond 12:00… the sma lines are going to force the market to decide i believe
850…. the market has to decide here, either hold and shoot up or we may see a hard spike down
My personal “guess” is we may rally today…. make what appears to be a firm low… and then if todays low clears tomorrow, we will likely go straight down… but im guessing, lol
the low is holding…. in “theory” it should hold here… The high was not rejected …technically… it was an sma line rejection…. I would rather be above the sma lines to be sure here… as the market appears very cautious thus far
The hourly close might be important here….to get everyopne on board…we would need to close out 12 above 855 it appears
If this low clears before 12, we should spike much lower is my guess
849 and change… its trying to hold it
hmmmm this looks more like support than a rejection… the lows for the first 3 hours are roughly the same…
the low is still holding… there is only one trade here and thats long or avoid it…. this still smells like fake bs above the sp low… but people believe in the sp low… personally im leaving it alone…. its too early in the day and the sma lines are going to force the issue here, one way or another
848 and change….. I have no idea how low we will go if this clears… the sp low was 839… so it may keep trying to hold it on any new lows… I just dont know
the risk reward trade is long… if it clears it clears…. the market is very very cautious right now…obviously
refuses to move…
it wont move….but this is looking very shaky…. today is going to be difficult to call i believe with the sp low below…. nobody wants to be short down here probably unless it clears… so you are seeing extreme caution thus far
low is holding by a thread…
if it clears before 12:15, we should see a decent spike lower… not sure… lunchtime and the sp low below…. as I have said 100 times, lol
Ok, I see why we may be stuck here… the 10/28 low was 845.27… that is probably more important than the actual SP low i believe
low cleared.. 845.11…. how low we will go…I dont know….clearing the 10/28 should raise some eyebrows i believe
If we clear 839 we may see some panic… not sure… but that would be my guess…
843…. once 847 cleared I said we should spike lower…. how low… I dont know
well, once 847.28 cleared it shot down all the way to 840 and change…
Again, one of two things are likely to happen if we clear 839….it is either going straight down in complete panic or its going to reverse and close positive on the day…. those are the only two possibilities as i see things….My guess would be straight down
Well this obviously HAS to be the low of the day… 840… if you want to be long this train wreck… i dont… risk one point to possibly gain many….if 839 clears, i would personally run for cover..
There has to be buyers here….people believe in the SP low…
Its making a doji… indecision… the market is clearly debating whether to take out 839 or not…
come on, lets take this nonsensical low… I am tired of hearing about it anyhow
I do not like this… there wasnt a clear rejection of 840…. i smell trouble… it still may hold however….im very skeptical
841…. I promise you…every trader on the floor is looking around….thinking… take it out… yes or no… ha
839.93….
839.80 was the SP low apparently… we just saw 839.87… thats about as close as possible
837… here we go… I knew i smelled trouble
my guess is there will be complete panic now… we will see
I have no idea what will stop the selling now….possibly nothing…. need to look at the Dow chart…. this may get very very very ugly
830 and counting…
ok…. there is one and only one thing that “may” stop the selling… there might be buyers around 8000 on the Dow…. but i would be VERY careful…. if we cannot close positive today… any low today should be nonsense
8047 and 930 have been the lows… i see almost zero chance those are todays lows…IMO
ok, Dow low has been 7965…. the dow low of 7773 HASSSS to hold today… so buyers there does not surprise me….if we clear 7773 TODAY which I find very unlikely, you may has well say down 1000 or more, IMO
this is what always amazes me about the market… once 839 cleared…why were there buyers at 838????? I mean are you kidding me
this is a pretty strong rejection of the lows of 7965 and 818… today is going to be VERY difficult with extreme risk….we HAVE to close positive, IMO
Just as I said, the lows were strongly rejected….it shot up all the way to 837…. we are going to see extreme volaitility today
I think we may have seen the low of the day… im not sure… my only issue is can it finish positive… it is possible… if we cannot go positive…then we should close at he low… the risk/reward today is extreme
We did see the initial complete panic selling once 839 cleared as i said would very likely happen… Now that that is over with….we will see what happens…I do NOT think the Dow low will clear….the sp low was nonsense and have said so 100 times
835 and still climbing
838… positive is not impossible… im still skeptical however… but who knows
841… still climbing
I believe 847 area is going to be the test… unless we are going straight up off this low, it should reverse in there is my guess
If this was not a close day, i would say we would almost certainly have seen todays low…. just clearing the sp low and reversing today would seem unlikely… but it is possible
My gut says they are going to close this thing positive….it makes no logical sense however…. we will see..
845 and climbing
848
849… i see no sign of a high…. ugh… we may go straight up… im not sure… there is still 2 plus hours left…
I could be dead wrong… this is a very risky day… but we should exceed 850 I believe… whether it can hold and go positive… I dont know
still climbing… I see no sign of a high…. they have every intention of closing this positive my gut says…. we will see
ok… here we go…. if they are going reverse it… it should come on a spike above 850 and reverse…. if that happens, we may revisit the low….
854… positive… I smelled it… ugh
ok, we went positive… right now is likely the key test…. your guess is as good as mine….. today will be very volatile the rest of the day… there is still 2 hours left ANYTHING can happen here
It is going as i said…. spike higher… attemopt to reverse…its too early to know
It is WAY too early in the day…. we have 2 hours left…. if this move had come in the last hour, I would say we would go straight up….too much time left…
Here is my “guess” as to what is going to happen… they are going to reverse off this recent high… revisit the low area… hold… and then clear this high in the last 30 minutes of trading… thats what my crystal ball says.. ha ha
But if we close out 2:00 EST above 850, we may go straight up and wont be that simple… ughhh I just hate this as its toooo early in the day
unbelieavable… back to 855…. I should have been long above the Dow low as i have said for, well forever
862 still climbing…. grrrrr I wanted a check back down near the low to be long… uhhh me and everyone else
I see no indication of a high here… if we sell down, i believe they will reverse it and close this positive… I have seen this game a time or three
ok… perfect….it sold down and closed out 2:00 at 848 and change… we may revisit the lows now… if we do… then the low has to hold….if it does…. and then we clear this high at the close… I think this crazy thing will do as i said earlier… straight up at the close… but again… the risk reward today is EXTREME to say the least…
we have to get below about 845 to possibly spike down…. hasnt happened…. I think everyone wants to be long this on weakness above the low….
847… it looks like we need to get below about 845 to see more weakness
grrr……851…. well, if it goes straight up, then it does…. im not long unless we get back down…. so I wish them luck with this
The far less risky trade, IMO… is to wait until tomorrow…. if we close positive today… which I believe they will try to do… then if we open down tomorrow, above this low… then the trade is long above this low… the problem is…. they may not make it that simple and we may go straight up tomorrow
854… sorry dogs…
well, I missed it… i saw the dang rejection of the low and didnt have the courage to pull the trigger… ughhhhh…. I said this “looks like a pretty strong rejection of this low”…. uhhh ya think
well, we couldnt get below 845 which had to happen to test the low area…. this ticks me off… I saw the freaking reversal at the low….. SOB, LOL
Looks like I am going to have to wait until tomorrow…. see if we close positive… sell down tomorrow and be long…. im not chasing this today… and wish them all best of luck
865…amazing…. well, i missed it, simple as that….what did i say earlier? My gut says we are going positive… uhhh duh, lol I wanted it to sell down near the low and then make a mad rush to positive into the close…. yeah well, me and everyone else.
I have no idea where this will stop now… this is a very strong reversal and straight up is not impossible… these reversal close days tend to close at the high of the day
I will just wait this out….and see if I can get lucky in the next few days… anyhow, good luck today, we are going to see extreme volaitility into the close here
over a 500 point swing in the Dow…. as i said, the risk/reward today was extreme… we were either going straight down, or reverse and go positive…that was the ONLY two possibilities, IMO
there is no sign of a high… and there really is nothing to stop this… the short covering may really get out of hand here… grrr whyyy couldnt they have just sold it down, let me get long, and then make the push in the last hour……because me an every single person alive wanted to be long above the low, thats why, lol
881 and still climbing… once again I get the chicken of the year award… i sawthe very strong rejection of the low, and said so… did I take it? uhh no… chicken
We just saw the SP low that will try and hold in coming days, weeks, etc…. If we get bad news tomorrow…. I am personally ignoring anything short of depression news and will be long on weakness above this… if I get that lucky….
I forgot to mention that we just saw the SP low IF we close positive…. I believe they will do that as they know if we close negative… more trouble is very likely
Here is the craziness of the stock market….jobs come in brutal, much worse than expected, Intel warns that things are getting very ugly…. all news is either very bad to horrible… and we reverse off a low and go up 600 points off the low…. does it make any sense? Nope… does it matter? Nope. It is what it is
If we clear this high intl the close… the shorts are going to completely freak out …. watch, lol… I am just going to have to wait this out and look to be long above this…. im not chasing it
Here we go, testing the high… these close days tend to close at or near the high of the day….
There really is nothing to stop this move today…I have no idea where it will close…. but at the high is probably very likely
cleared… straight up probably as shorts will freak… well anyhow, another day of frustration… if i would just trade the stupid chart, lol… ugh
see, once 8548 clear all the way to 8624…. I think we will likely see the high made in the last 5 mins of trading… thats normally what happens on days like today
the only thing thats going to stop this move higher today is probably the clock… just the way it works, 8660 and still climbing… does any of this make any sense? nope… its simply how these close days work…. I said yesterday that the risk and possible reward is extreme on close days…. you are either right and it skyrockets or you are wrong and it closes near the days low…. its just the way they work
see… 8710… I still believe the high will not be seen until the last 5 mins of trading… the vast majority of these days work that way
8726… what a crazy game this is
can you believe this craziness???? 800 points off the low? unbelievable…
ok, 10 mins to go. traders will probably take profits soon on this nonsense now, this is such a stupid game, lol, but it is what it is… who knows, we may close at the exact high, it would not shock me
new high after new high after new high…. this is 100% because its a close day…. thats why i mention it… this crazy stuff doesnt happen on any otherday but close days… it just is what it is
close day close day close day…..900 points off the low…. im flabbergasted