Morning Call: Still Uncertainty
November 17, 2008 12:45 PM
I do not like the lows put in, thus far. This appears to be far more of “buying on a big number” again. However that nonsense can last until they are clearly wrong and give it up. I am very skeptical. The lows have continued to bounce off 850, with the low being 848.98. I believe in this silliness like not at all. This appears to be timing. It did however “free up” the chart early on by what it looks like taking out the early high. So this doesn’t appear to be a trend day down. Just no idea here other than I do not like these big number bounces on any level. But that’s me. However, we did see this same thing at 900 that lasted for a couple of days, so it is possible, who knows.
As mentioned, this appears to be sma timing related. The way they were, it was probably likely that we would not go straight down early on. Too early. Technically this is not a close day. However, most of the true direction will probably come in the last hour if I had to guess. If we can close positive it will give the longs some hope here. The problem right now appears to be no firm low - but no firm high either. Therefore, there is uncertainty as to how high - or how low. That is another reason i think we are seeing very slow action.
Keep in mind, there will be believers in this SP low of 818. The only question is - can they hold it, and if they can, how low will go first.
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59 Responses to “Morning Call: Still Uncertainty”
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I personally see no sign of a firm low of any kind. The only problem is - no firm high either… this is clearly unclear, lol
If they are going to reverse this back down, a spike to 875 or so after 12:00 and reverse would probably spell a revisit to the lows.
That is what I meant when i said the chart was “freed up” early on… I would have to have my futures charts to know for sure… but they took out the early high, so there is nothing to stop the upside here, other than Friday’s high…. soooo not sure where we are going… all I know is I always dislike big number buying, it just seems fake
opps, except the sma lines…why i mentioned the 875 area…. either way - no firm high, no firm low…
see, new high…no high…no low… no idea here at all
I am still very skeptical… but when those early highs are taken out, it leaves the door open for poistive
If they are going to reverse this, it may come here….it is above both sma lines….we may need a firm high to reverse this
my issue with this still very clear… no firm low…. nothing bugs me more than big number bounces, lol
looks like they need to hold this move higher or the shorts may come in…too early to know
Ok, that should fix the timestamp, iI guess i had to manually adjust for daylisght savings… anyhow… now this comment will be out of order… it apparently puts the comments in time order, no big
this timestamp will be out of order because I fixed the dayllight savings… anyhow…. no idea here… no firm low….850 bounces… the problem it appears is that I am not confident it did not make a rejection of a high… I look at BigCharts…. it shows SPY did make a rejection, sp500 did not… im skeptical this is correct…. this same thing happened on Friday…. it showed it made a doji… I am pretty sure… looked that night… and it made a firm high…. like the data changed later… unless I just saw it wrong, possible
yep… reversed there….
hmmm wait a min…. it never made what I see as a firm high… ugh…. my eyes must be deceiving me, lol… we will probably reverse above the low now, probably… the sma’s are getting flat however… I still expext a reversal attempt above the low - is my guess
no firm high, no firm low… good luck, lol
The timestamp on your blog is off
this high appears to be a trend break, not a rejection… I dont consider it a rejection…. but we have no firm low either…. this is some serious bs today
ohhh you mean the time is not correct… hmmm it is… it never adjusted for daylight savings… will need to look, thanks
test
there, the comments should be in order…anyhow… not much to say anyhow, lol…. these big number support bounces wear me out…. “hey let’s guess at a low, 850 sound good? ok.”.. lol…. it just is marginally believable, at best… I just never believe it when I see it… but thats me….
all of the action today has come off trend breaks, sma lines and buying on a big number…. all of which I mostly consider a waste of time…. I still believe the close is “somewhat” important… if we had a firm low I think they would close it positive most likely….its trying to reverse right here…. this could easily go either way today
this thing is all over the freaking place
hmmmm… I would rather have seen it go all the way to 860 and reverse… but it is what it is… they may use this to test the high
all over? this is a tame day, lol
my hunch is they are going to try and close this positive… no reason, its a feeling i get
its a little early, but it appears that if they are going to close this positive, this recent low needs to hold here… most likely…. but still 1.5 hours to go and we are under the sma lines… it looks like we may stagnant here… not sure… I do believe if we clear the high in the last 30 mins shorts probably will cover…
i think they are going to use this recent low to test the high… or it certainly appears that way
yep… its starting to move…. they have every intention of using this low to try and take out the high…. we will see..
its probably make or break time here… its under both sma lines…clearly crossed short… this still can go either way
If this low clears, especially before 3:00… we should revisit the low of the day… I do believe
It looks like… that we need to close out 3:00 above 872 or so… if we can that will give the hourly traders hope to take this up in the last hour….my concern here is simple…. the low of the day was not rejected, IMO….concerning…
this recent high was a direct hit on the sma line…. this recent low appears my like a support thing… I dont know…. I would MUCH rather see a strong rejection near the low, and we dont have it
if this low clears before 3, I think we will revisit the low in short order
looks like we are going down
well anyhow, these support bounces wear me out…. just not what I like to see…. who knows…this would be a littttle more clear if we had rejected the low instead of big number buying… ughhhh waste of time
recent low is trying to hold…skeptical… looks like the hourly chart will want a new recent low to maybe make a reversal….. good luck guessing on this in the last hour… volatility will likely pick up
the next 3 mins may tell the strory into the close, or seems likely
my personal guess is this… notthat it is helpful in any way…lol… i think we may see todays high or low made in the last 15 mins…. it certainly smells that way
yep, definately looks like lower
2 :00 failed… my personal view is we need a strong rejection near the low… if they want to make another mad rush to positive into the close
the sma lines are getting weaker the longer we stay down here… a close at the low is certainly possible….
its still holding that recent low… just clear the thing, test the low, reverse and close positive, lol geez
that recent low has held by the skin of its teeth… who knows… either the sma traders will win this battle or they wont….
europe all closed with 1.5 to 2% losses, not sure if that will indicate a weak close here or not… could be an indication
reversal attempt just above…by pennies… above that recent low… it looks like the lines in the sand on the close has been drawn… I am not the biggest fan of that low in the world, as mentioned, but it is what it is… sma lines are pushing it down… that recent low trying to hold…. its definately a battle
I still think making todays high or low in the last 15 mins seems likely… we will see… europe with losses and no rejection of todays low concerns me
lol, it keeps bouncing back and forth between the sma line and the recent low, the market seems very undecided which way to take this at the close… thats a lot of help, like zero, lol
hmmmm 3:15 close was probably important….since they are running out of time today… this recent low of about 862 probably needs to hold
well, make or break time i believe… sma or this low… one of them has to win or lose here
well, what a whipping…. all i can say is they better hold this 862 into the close or i think the longs will take a beating
trying to hold the recent low… again… i think it is in trouble
this thing has traded between 862 and 875 for 3 hours… something has to give
ughh held againn… geez…. im tired of watching this silliness… have fun
sorry, couldnt turn it off… ha ha… 870 direct hit on the sma …. I stillll think 862 likely has to hold because time is running out
863 and change… here we go…. if it clears before 3:45, my guess is straight down… we will see
cleared it finallly on like the zillionth attempt… I do not believe we can reverse here before 3:45… we would have to get back above 868 I think
859
858
not sure why there are buyers here… reversal doesnt seem possible…. but what do i know, lol
Was up looking at the asian markets before bed…I think all markets will trade the same here - flat to weak until GM news is settles one way or another.
Anyhow, I sure did say that I believed that 862 had to hold into the close… like several times…. and if it cleared straight down at the close would be my guess…. cleared and down she goes.