Morning Call: Open Sold, Dow 7773
November 20, 2008 10:17 AM
We are getting very close to the Dow low as it is currently 7784. It appears that the low will be taken out. This appears to be a gap trend day down. If we did not have the Dow low below, I would say definately. If the Dow low is taken out, we would have to close positive in order to maybe try and stop the selling, but I find it very unlikely.
If we clear the low, people long better be very, very careful. There is nothing to stop this except maybe the 2002 low of 768 on the SP. That “may hold”. I have long asked the simple question “why are we above the 2002 lows?”. The economy is in far worse shape so I simply see no logical explanation why we are this high. So I remain very skeptical of any strength.
11:57 Update: Dow low has held - thus far - by less than one point. I have no idea what will happen now. This seems a bit fake to me, but we will see. We also have the 2002 SP low of 768 that is probably important. The true direction is likely to come into the close today.
I was watching Cramer last night, which I rarely do, and man was he negative on tech. Would have been a bit better if he was negative months ago obviously, but he tries to call things as he sees them I believe. So have to give him credit for that. He has a lot of critics, but I honestly think he actually tries to help people. Whether he does, I am not sure.
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It is still very very early in the day…. the low looks like it will clear…. 7775 thus far… with no intraday low as of yet… so the dow low should clear, as i see things…. but you can see the very tentative trading near that low….
If it clears, the odds are very high this will get ugly…. since it is early is “possible” we could reverse…. I just think taking out the SP low yesterday and then the Dow low today… would shake the longs in a big way here..
ha… held by ONE point… thus far..
The risk/reward at 7774 was obviously long… thats whats going on… risk ONE point and maybe get a ho,merun… I am still very skeptical… we will see..
100 point pop above the Dow low… I mean come on…what a game, lol
I simply beliieve this, like not at all… they want to take out the Dow low, I do believe… possible it could hold as anything is always possible…. but holding it by one point??? lol
well, one thing is pretty clear, it is very likely this HAS to be the days low…lol… this just seems very fake
They are doing their best to hold the Dow low… obviously….
up to 7908… lol amazing…ONE point is that important….told you, the market is not logical on any level, lol
Well, they are playing the game… all I can say is people aboard the Titanic need to grab an extra life jacket… you may need it soon
it is “possible” the dow low could hold today, obviously… this just seems very fake to me…. we will see…
180 point gain off the low because ONE point held on the Dow… ha
now positive… amazing
That takes the trend day down off the table…. open high cleared…. this is some serious bs….. but it is what it is
The SP low has been 776…. so the 2002 lows are not much further down as well…. this could break either way today, obviously…. but this low only holding by a point is a bit concerning….
actually, the dow went positive… the sp did not… i am still very skeptical of this silliness… we will see
watch them hold this dow low and rally this thing, lol…. who knows…. this just seems a bit calculated to me
not sure why i even post anyhow, I dont have many readers after I stopped watching the market for a month, lol… which I may do again….this bad news day after day is getting very old…trying to pick bottoms and hoping for a short covering rally is difficult, to say the least…
amazing… 803
If it rallies, then it does…. I probably missed the short covering rally again… we will see
If I wasnt so skeptical of holding the dow low by one point, the chart actually looks pretty strong now
This may take the rest of the day to sort out… this is obviously a close day… so anything is possible…. the true direction will likely be seen in the last hour
no sign of a high….as of yet
if this were a normal day, i would say 8057 is not the high…. this holding by one point just seems a littleeee calculated… lol
If you notice… once $85 cleared on aapl, $5 spike down…..not good
can you believe GE hit a low of $12.58 today? amazing…
If you think these lows can hold, PFE might be something to look at… over 8% yield and $14.31 is the key number to hold…. any dramatic change in healthcare may change their future outlook though, not sure… I would rather have the market put in lows I can count on to be long….but who knows
Well, i said if this was a normal day, then 8057 should not be the high…. 8146 high, thus far…. maybe straight up today, who knows…. holding the dow low by less than a point seems a bit odd to me, but thats me
this high on the sp has to be cleared….looks like if we get under about 806, then we may revisit 790
If we clear 817, then 830 seems likely here as shorts should flip out
new high….. we shoulddddd go much higher now… we will see…
I cannot imagine the shorts not covering this here….
Breaking news !!!!Bailout deal reached!!!!!
There really is nothing to stop this move higher other than an sma at about 830 and common sense, lol
ohhhhhhh no wonder…. havent been watching it
well, that saved the market i suspect
Hmmm, I thought we would get a bigger bumpr from that news
of course cnbc is taliing about some other nonsense, lol… geez
well, I havent seen the details … I have no idea…. either way… this news may turn sentiment a bit… it was pretty clear we were most likely going to sell off into the close today i believe
2:30 EST they are going to hold a press conference to give the details of the deal
well, that was a short lived rally
ok, that is why it fell back down, waiting for the details
The dow high was a direct hit on an sma line… I dont think thats a big issue here…. the low should hold, probably….but if they like the news may dictate this…. but this CLEARLY HAD to happen or the market was toast
hmmm no, the skeptic in me says they are taking it down to load up for a late rally… LOL
I may buy some PFE….
If they put nothing into this to help stimulate the consumer buying GM, F or Chrysler then its a pure waste. If there is tax credits for buying a GM etc… then consumers may buy more which will help the bottom line
im long some PFE… im going to leave that for some time…
I am sure I made a bad choice, lol… now I am hearing that the deal may not be done, im not sure
anyhow, whatever…. i didnt buy much…. there was some talk on cnbc that said the deal may not be done… I am not sure… man, if they dont do a deal, this is clearly not good
I should have just waited to find out for sure… I preach patience yet I have none, lol
If they come out before the close and say no deal, this thing is probably going straight down
I dont think you can trade this today as the chart probably doesnt matter… this is either a deal or it isnt…. no deal and my first, second and third guess is straight down
market is already selling down, what a moron i am, geez…. there is a lot of speculation that a deal may not be done…. this is going to get very ugly if that news was false, I do believe
If we get a pop - if the deal is done…. I am selling out, lol….. less than a point above the dow low is just not believable to me… I thought that early on, and need to stick with it…. but this could be big news to stop a serious meltdown… or not
I should have waited to learn more about the possible deal… it isnt really a deal apparently, more of an attempt at a compromise…. the proposal is trying to use the already allocated $25 billion to make green cars…and use that for current cash flow… but apparently even if a deal is reached eventually… which is far from clear… they are saying after Tday… not good
I should have sold out with a couple of pennies loss if thats the case…. a close rout seems likely to me, but what do i know
yep, turned on cpan to listen to them…. I am very skeptical…. cnbc was sounding initially like a deal was done… uhhh hardly…. thats why i never have that thing on… waste of time
if we get one more move higher, im getting out…. I have no interest in investing and guessing…. ugh ugh ugh…
I highly doubt I will get another chance at positive, they arent going to let those people escape most likely, lol
yeah, they let out tidbits of info…. the market popped on the sound bite…. now reality is setting in
all the way back to 790 already…. I dont think i can get out of this even close to breakeven
my first second and third guess is this is going to get ugly near the close… we will see
oil is getting demolished…amazing…. its down to $48.78… one good thing about the market, cheaper gas… hey have to find a silver lining if possible, there just isnt many to be found
little over an hour to go….this should get very interesting
dow low may hold.. no idea…. if we close negative though… doesnt seem like it will hold in coming days….. but what do i know, I have been on the wrong side 3 times a row, lol…. trying to pick a temporary bottom in this is challenging
well, lows have cleared…. yawn…. if we didnt have the 2002 low below, the only thing that would stop the selling here is the clock….
I guess if 768 clears we will just see complete panic, lol, this market is just getting olddd rapidly, tired of even watching it
2002 dow low was 7177…. sooo no help there…. its all about 768 here, most likely
they dont want any part of 768 it appears, lol
yikes… 769.80… getting closeee
768.67 is 2002 low… todays low 768.76….
nevermind… 767…. my guess is the only thing to stop the selling is 4:00 EST… I sold out at 885 or so… I just smelled a closing selloff… as i said my first second and third guess was a rout at the close… soooo I sold… another stupid move trying to catch a falling knife
yep 761 and counting…. hmmm 20 mins left….
I would be shocked if we dont close at the low… who knows…. there may be buyers at a certain level… what level that would be I have no idea
anyhow, I think i am done watching the markets for a while… just tired of it and really have no interest in reading about bad news 24/7….it just isn’t that fun, lol
If we are going to 6000 as all the talking heads keep talking about, why not do it today and get this over with, lol, I mean what is the point