Morning Call: Open Sold
November 21, 2008 10:15 AM
I said yesterday that I am going to take a break from watching the markets on a daily basis and still am. But couldn’t help myself this morning to watch the comedy of a higher open. Why even one person was long near today’s open high is beyond my possible comprehension. At any rate, it is possible we have already seen today’s high. In fact it is probably likely. New lows and a gap higher at the open the next day and people are long? Ha.
12:18 EST Update I forget to mention that “unless” we clear 747. We cleared that later. Today is now far different. We have a low of 741 and a high of 773. If one of those clears in the last hour… all hell is going to break loose, most likely.
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down to 755 already… wake me at negative
They may not want to take this negative as it will force the market to decide if we clear 747
sp made a bit of an odd open, not as clear… the open was sold, that high cleared and immediately reversed… the dow open was clearly sold….
still, new lows in the market and people long at 773 near the open??? are you kidding me? lol I mean they should just mail me their money rather than give it to the floor traders…they have plenty already
watch them clear 747 today and reverse it, and get some bs short covering close rally…. LOL… just watch
755… wake me at 750
753… is that the low… uhhh nooo in my humble opinion… everything is just that, obviously, lol
actually it made 753 after 9:30 i believe… soooo possible that is the low… possible…. lol…
they want no part of 747…. it will force the issue…. if they want to keep this calm …. they need to leave that alone… it is Friday… they may want some sleep this weekend, lol
pop higher on some nonsensical news about citi…. the odd thing is…. I looked at citi overseas and it was down in germany before our open and yet higher here… uhh ok… long? hardly… long that silliness and you better believe in santa claus as he is likely your only hope, lol
at any rate, unless we clear 747… we “may” have a relatively calm day…. as the intraday chart will dictate the action… 747 clears it’s a whole different ballgame
this is a battle between the dow low and high here…. we likely will stay between those numbers unless one clears
the odds that 747 is the ultimate low is slim and none…IMO… so whatever happens today is a total and complete waste of time
looks like if we clear 761 we may challenge 770… maybe… todays high is an issue… obviously
difficult call in here…. the high and low… battle…. the problem is… long on a gap open that is sold is generally far less than wise
if we clear 753 before 11:00 EST…. watch the longs squeel like pigs
753 and change… they need to hold the lows i dooo believe… I hope they dont clear 747 here… let’s just leave this a nice calm day, lol… and it’s almost Thanksgiving…. that reminds me, i guess i need to get a turkey
ut ohhh spagehtti ohhhs… 753 cleared…. reminds me of a Queens song… Under Pressure
dow low is holding it here…. hasn’t cleared - yet…
I think they want to keep this calm and avoid yesterdays lows… they have Friday dinner plans and want a nice relaxing weekend, lol
told you…. 753 cleared before 11…. would not be so good… lol… 750 and counting
cleared 753 before 11 EST and down to 748 already… boy couldn’t have guessed that in a million years
746 and change…. let’s see… 753 clears before 11….and it falls… ya think?
how are those longs feeling at 773 at the open? Not so good… lol
sorry, it’s Friday… i am in a jovial holiday mood…. and have zerooooo interest in trading this…. so it is comedy central… the only trade was the avoid this open like the plague… obviously
Here is the problem with a calm Friday now… SP low has cleared…. this forces the issue to some extent
743… what song did i say would be playing if we cleared 753 before 11? I believeee it was Under Pressure…. not a great song, IMO….ok, not great
up 20 at the open, down 8…. thats shocking, like not at all
dooo do doo dooo doo do do… 741….
Let me take a wild guess…. it will “try” and reverse here
this low is about on the hourly channel or close…. looked to be around 740 or so… couldn’t tell…. channel traders drive me crazy… complete waste of time…. but it is important IF IF it reverses there
ok, that needs to be a near term low…. if 750 clears… then we should move higher here
747… let me think for about 1 millisecond here…. uhh long above 741
this is pretty clear cut here…. 741 needs to hold… simple as that
745… if this low is going to hold… that should be it
we need to hold 741 and clear 750… simple
745 to 749…. boy couldn’t have guessed that… but we have not cleared 750 yet
there we go…. let me guess here… 760?
I think i am an idiot savant on the markets… or perhaps just an idiot…. debatable, lol
hmmm boy… i said 745 should be it…. long above 741…and now 754…. I just took a “wild guess” lol
755… we should not reverse before 11:30
do you understand that TIME is important in the markets??? It is a matter of numbers, but also time… this is why all the day trading books are complete nonsense…. numbers and time… if x happens before z… its important… thats why it is difficult to say “long xyz above X… it depends…on time
756… yawn… i could never have predicted this in a billion years…
this appears to be pretty cut and dry…. this is probably a near term low… and we have a day high… soooooo we will likely trade between these numbers…. until near the close… probably…. if these two numbers hold… 741 and 773… into the close…. and one clears late…. then all hell is going to break loose into the close
756 is not the near term high… sorry shorts, just the way it is
758… man I love it when the market does “what I tell it to do”… lol
the near term high should not come before 11:45
ok, thuis recent high of 758 is on the hourly channel….. if we exceed this before 12…. the shorts will flip
I said long ago… 745 should be it…. exceed 750 we should see 760… only 758… thus far… my bad… i didnt look at the hourly channel
either way, the near term high should NOT come before 11:45
760…. just another lucky guess… should have traded today…. this is a bit too easy
The only anchor today is Banks, They are sucking wind
4 mins left….. any near term high made before 11:45 is not it…. sorry resistance traders and shorts… sucks for you
762
hey Scott we may have seen todays low…. i should have been long in real money at 745… duh
we may go straight up into the close… or straight down… if either 741 or 773 clears into the close, as mentioned… this appears to be pretty clear cut here
my personal guess is 741 and 773 is the range… until the last hour….
if 773 clears in the last 30 mins…. i will guess straight up… or vice versa… opps… i am sorry, the markets trade on news and “fundamentals” and PE’s…… uhhh like not at all
I was chatting with a woman last night that was studying day trading… I told her to throw the books in the trash, lol…. would they have notified you that “741 has to hold here” uhh no… would they tell you that all the action will come in the last hour? uhhh no…. would they tell you that if we cleared 768 into the close yesterday we were going straight down? uhh no… i do understand how the traders think…. however, predicting the outcome at the close is far more difficult
Here is the problem with today…. it is possible we may go straight up into the close… BUT is it likely that we would permanently reverse a day after clearing the 2002 lows? VERY unlikely
I also “happened’ to mention in a post that we likely have seen the November high…..and that the Nov high should not clear about 1040 or so….. hmmm that “appears” to be the correct call, lol
if we were not at new lows…. and if the open wasnt sold…. I would say long above the low here…. I just do not like this open
buyers at 750… yawn… support traders crack me up
it looks like to have a close rally… we have to clear 765 first…. but todays high is also an issue
hmmm any spike above 763 or so has to stick here
going just as i thought… 741 and 773 is the range into the close… most likely
ok, 761… any spike above 763 HAS to hold
759… they want no part of it… lol… traders are concerned they may buy into a reversal…
762… decision time boys and girls
ok, we cleared 763 we HAVE to keep going higher now or it’s trouble
the sma line is near todays high… I am skeptical it can clear near term
we better stay above 760 here or the shorts may come in
the market has forced the issue here… we either have to reverse or challenge the high
If we do not go below 759 here… it appears we are going to challenge the high
767…. looks like higher
the high is a big big issue…. people long much higher here are risking it
768
looks like no chance of a reversal before 12:45…. we are going to challenge the high it appears…
BUT the point to be long was 745 as i said… long near 770? where it may reverse? uhhh good luck lol
the hourly chart looks awfully strong here…. if this low holds… and the high is cleared late…. as mentioned…. my first guess is straight up at the close
any move above 770 has to take out the high here or we are going to reverse
down to 763… they want no part of it
looks like about 760 needs to hold here for the hourly trenders
not a fan of trends as i have longgg mentioned
why were people long near 770 when 773 had to clear???? lol risk and reward was obviously far less than good… amazing
the risk/reward there was obviously long at 745 above 741… the outcome of this is clearly still uncertain…. my hunch is they will try and close this with a small gain and leave happy… we will see
the move above 741 looks pretty strong…. 768 is probably key here….
the moving averages may force the issue before the day is done…. I think the high or the low will clear before this is over…. or seems likely
the moving avg that i watch… everyone looks at different times…. is about 762 here…. the market has to decide this issue before the day is done, i do believe… it cannot sit here the rest of the day
757… if we go much higher…. we may test the high… not sure
there is a clear difference of opinion in here…. we have the moving averages putting a lid on this… we have an hourly channel break to the upside… and we have the low that held… this has to move in here, i do believe
any move above 760 HAS to hold i believe… if we get there…. sma’s are going to force the markets hand, as mentioned…. this has to be decided. and pretty soon
if we clear the low… I normally would say we are going straight down… but itis a bit early …. 1.5 hours to go…. so not sure yet
ut oh… 744
743….
it bounced just above the low…. still time left…. not sure what will happen if 741 clears…. but guessing is probably not a great idea, lol
back to 754… they are determined to hold the low… for now at least
well, last hour… seat belt time, most likely
759… any higher and we will be above the sma’s….
well, anyhow, who cares, lol…. we may see a short covering close rally… or maybe not… I really dont give a hoot
we are above the sma’s now…. those shorts will likely begin to panic here
yep 768…
hmmm 771
774…. we may go straight up now, not sure…
it still could reverse here… I have no idea… short coveriing into the close can be VERY unpredictable… obviously
these close days tend to make their highs in the last 5 mins… we will see…
this short covering may really get out of hand here
this 785 area is right on the daily trend down… maybe why its stalled here… not sure
mevermind… 789… lol …. I have no idea how high this may go now…. shorts have to cover I would think
common sense may come into play here at some point… but i wouldnt count on it… lol