Morning Call: Manufucturing Worse Level Since 1982
November 3, 2008 11:19 AM
The ISM manufacturing just came out and was a whopping 38.9. Merely the worst reading since 1982. The market however is likely to gave a long bias early on today and weakness will try and bounce, at least for now. The sma’s are going to try and hold this market here and we have the election. I would guess the election coming up will be like a fed day, shorts will likely wait this out. But I am just guessing. Once the election is over we will see the true direction here.
With that said, Fridays high is an issue on an intraday chart.
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Keeps trying to bounce as I mentioned was likely early on… If we get pressure, it normally would come late… however, two problems with that today…. the hourly sma line is coming as i have been mentioning… that line is just under Friday’s low… and we have the elction coming up…so I think today will be brutal to try and trade this
To seel this down hard, i believe it would likely coming in days ahead once these lines flatten out ND we get under them… normally when the market wants to sell down a bit and these lines are here like this… it will repeatedly try and bounce without firm numbers to trade them…. I do not like sma action, at all because of this and view them as very temporary
we have a reversal off todays low…this is a battle between Fridays high and todays low right now…decent pop off the low
Also, if we clear Fridays high, it better keep going…would make it another close day… if that happens and we reverse, we may see a lot of pressure late
As much as i think this move likely wont have much legs, the trade is probably long above the low still…. I still think 1044 is a BIG issue on the SP, so most of the upside is likely gone here and traders at some point, will want to take this back down where they can make some money
Today is going to be slowwww I believe with the elction and the sma’s…boring…. I still think they would like to sell this thing down, but cant because of sma lines and election….sooooo it may sit here for a long time, not sure- but the trend is clearly rolling over here and we are under one short term sma
Low held and popped back over sma…thats why i do not like commenting on sma’s much as we would need to have cleared the low AND stayed under it for time to maybe get more pressure
Going as planned…bounce, bounce, bounce early on…. it is getting a little more dicey here…. 9200 is obviously a key area here on any weakness…. not sure if we are going to get volatility today or not with the election
If we clear todays low, I do not think we will clear 9200 here, any test of that should be rejected i believe if selling is going to be contained… if we do clear 9200 we have to reverse quickly or it will get attention
sma’s are flattening out in this 9300 area… this entire move the last few days has been sma related…. this can lead to some big pressure…. if the not for the election i think they would shred this thing here if we cleared and held 9200…
todays high, which is not important… 9410…we have to clear 9453 to be long and even then it would get very volatile into the close… and people are long 9410 early in the day? are you kidding me, lol
I still think they wont take this down hard today…election, but not sure, and I think it is too early in the chart to take this thing down hard it appears…. 9200 is a key number… if we take it out and cannot reverse, there is nothing to stop the fall here to at least a test of 8800
if we do not take out the low here and bounce, it should reject 9350 here i believe
nevermind, new low, this is going to get interesting… I said at the open that “we should bounce early and if we are going to see pressure, it should come late”…. its still too early in the chart to clear 9200 I believe
If we cannot close out 2:30 above 9280, ideally higher I think we will eventually test 9200 before this is over
make that 9290
Long above 9264 IMO…we should test 9350 here, in a hurry
long long long long, IMO
refuses to move… there is only one trade here i believe and thats long or leave it alone…. we are in between sma lines i watch, so its possible the action could be muted here… not sure
not sure what the hold up is as we should go to at least 9330 here i believe
bouncing around 9300 psychological nonse… 9330 should be seen here… if we spike there and reverse…. then that would be an issue possibly…refuses to move….right now…hmmmm 9310 was as high as we got off the low… in between sma lines…. this may set up a sharp break at the close… not sure yet
If they want to reverse this, they will spike it above 9310 here and reverse it hard
9315, thus far…. If we close out 3:00 EST above 9300, i think we may test the high
There was a free 40 plus points, not much, but market is slim…. we have to close out 3:00 above 9300 here or this low will be put into question, in a hurry… it only went to 9325 thus far… I said 9330… my bad, lol
7 more mins… we BETTER close this out above 9300 IMO…. traders can take this down at the close here, if it doesnt… if they want to do so
like i said IF they want to sell this down, they would spike it near 9330 and reverse it….we better get back up there
9284 ut oh spaghetti ohss….I smell 9200 test here
There should be shorts under 9325 I believe….
new low…. 9260… we still have 9200 here to hold… so not sure if we will a rout at the close or not
we would have to clear 9200 into the close i believe to get this going…so that might be it for the day
anyhow this is some slow bs action before the election, I need coffee just watching it… low of 9255…. I wish this election get over with so we can get this going again… have a good day
last comment, this will be a battle between 9255 and 9325 into the close here…. like i said early today, 9200 is really the key here anyhow…. if we clear 9325 my first, second and third guess is we will test 9400 into the close
cleared it… lets see if i am right and we go to 9400
hmmm we are going higher than 9350 most likely… only 15 mins of this nonsense left
9345 and climbing… I still say 9400 into the close
9325 should hold if we are going to make one final push higher…which I think we will…sorry, I am splitting pennies today
9366 and climbing
9410 is a big problem from just after the open, so we may stall again… anyhow…. just as I thought, a slow, boring “fed like” day because of the election, ughhhh
only went to like 9370 once 9325 cleared… 45 points… thats a big move today, lol. why even bother opening the thing if its going to be like this, just say “flat” and everyone go home