Morning Call: Futures Way Up, Election Day Nonsense
November 4, 2008 10:01 AM
Not sure what to make of this open other than it is election day and I mentioned before that I believed that it would be like “fed day” and the shorts would likely remain on the sidelines until we see the reaction after the election. Futures are way up this morning on basically nothing else. Make sure this open higher is bought here as other than the election it makes no sense. The news has been very ugly and getting worse. But the markets generally do not let facts get in the way.
Five minutes before the bell, the SP is set to open at about 986, up 17, and the Dow up 154 at 9486.
As I have long mentioned the markets have little, if anything, to do with economic reality. It is supply and demand, nothing more. My favorite line is, is AAPL worth $180 or is it worth $85? We have both prices on the board within 3 months. Like I have said a million times, it doesn’t matter. Reality has nothing to do with anything because reality is determined in the market, not the other way around. Normally I would smell some serious bs here and think they would use this open to sell into - but the election. We will see.
We have to clear 9924 on the Dow and 1044 on the SP, both of which should not be challenged today. Therefore, this may be a one and done day. This will be a close day and we would normally see volatility into the close, one way or another. Whether this will play out on election day, I am not sure as it may be another very low volume day as yesterday was.. If we did clear both of those today, which seems exceptionally unlikely, then we would almost certainly close at the high of the day.
The only thing I see that would move the markets here, if not the election bs, is that I said Friday that the moving averages that I watch were on a collision course and the markets would have to break one way or another when they did. The hourly sma is just under yesterday’s low and the daily just above Friday’s high. Therefore, i expected the market to break one way or another here - as it has no choice but to decide.
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Ha, they are selling this bs open already, what a pile of nonsense… I am not sure here…yet…
This is why I need to know the exact open, to be certain,….I turned my head and didnt see it, ugh. I think we opened about 9475
I am almost certain the open was sold…. nothing like having fake charts so the public cannot know whats going on…ha…what comedy
If not for this nonsense election day, traders would be short, right here, under the highs… if today will act like a normal day, i am not sure
SP high cleared, the Dow high has not… what bs trading this is going to be today
Dow high cleared…. Well, good luck as i have no idea what the low will be here if we reverse…. I have to get my futures charts back so i can REALLY see whats going on
As much as i hate this short covering crap that is 100% not supported, the trade was long or avoid once 9520 cleared… what complete crap this is, but whatever, it is what is is. for today anyhow
Shorts were going to cover once 988 and 9520 cleared… how high we will go, or how low, is the issue… I have no idea
we have no high….the problem is I hateeee this crap… we have no low either
If the open was bought, this would be simple as pie and we would almost certainly close at the high of the day…. anyhow, i will stop complaining about this nonsense today, lol
sp hit 1000, still no firm high
traders will likely just stay long unless we reverse late… the close is really all that matters, and it seems unlikely they are going to short this today
1002, no high yet
we are still going higher
There are only two ways to trade this today i believe… one, was to be long once 988 and 9520 cleared as mentioned… if not already long, then traders will reverse a low once the trend breaks - if we do not get a firm high to sell…
the odds we have seen the high is slim and none as i see things
If we do not clear the high here, and sell down on a trend breaks, we should reverse any selling at a logical point… traders will likely want to trade this down a bit, make a firm low, so they can make some money
The only way we may have seen the high is is if we close out 12:00 EST below 9580… then it is possible…not the type of high i like, at all, but we have zero lows either…this is 100% short covering pop, nothing more….. again, if this was a “normal” day, i would fully expect this nonsense to end and we would likely see a negative close…. but I would think that wouldnt happen today… but would be rather funny
Hmmm, this sideways action suggests a late push higher once the sma’s catch up, would be my guess… I just didnt like the way this opened and sold down early… “normally” that spells trouble late in the day… but the Dax and FTSE closed up over 4.5%, so doesnt look like we will see selling pressure today
This recent high of 1005 is an issue, near term… should pop down here…how low we will go before reversing, not sure, as we have never put in a decent low, including the open….. im telling you, if this ws a normal day…..and we made a firm high to sell, the shorts would tear this thing to shreds and we would likely test going negative before it was all over
Its trying to reverse here… i do not think we will test the open low here, it is far to early in the chart… it is just very difficult to know where the “new” low will be
will be a battle between this recent low and 1005…. if this open was bought, i would say we would close at the high of the day… and still possible….
If someone wanted to be long this short covering bs, this recent low of 993.62 needs to hold otherwise we will test the high 980’s
993.62 has to hold here or i smell 988 or lower
If we had not made somewhat of a reversal off 1005, the trade would be easy here, long long long…. but we did…. I still think the odds favor this low holding with the sma’s soon coming to the rescue
3 points higher off 995, send me the 42 cents in the mail, lol
I think we will test 1005 here… whether it clears, not sure
we should make at least one more push higher I believe, but if you can trade short covering nonsense, let me know…. this house of cards is getting bigger and bigger, by the day
Hereis what i mean by a HUGE house of cards….once we do get pressure…what low needs to hold? There isn’t one. Traders will be guessing on lows based on “support” and SMA lines…. BUT what if we get under key moving averages? Uhhhh the bubble pops and down she goes… thats the problem with these unsupported moves
this low is holding by the skin of its teeth
I want to see this gap fill and go negative and stop this short covering BS trading…sorry but its anooying to the nth degree as it makes me look like a fool… ha.
ha… it cleared… no huge issue - yet…. we will likely bounce somewhere around 989…well, it better…ughhh I wishhhh this was a normal day… my first 2nd and 3rd guess would be we would see negative before the day was done
traders have a firm number to short….if they really wanted to plunge this nonsense, they could….and likely would….but i think traders are saying….”fed day” no shorts…. and feel safe
ha ha 989……
once 993.63 cleared WHY are people long, duh, the markets amaze me - often
bounced off 989 as i figured, short covering bs tends to bounce off sma’s
one huge problem, this is an sma bounce. nothing more…. it isnt supported by anything else…. come on shred this nonsense
it bounced directly off about 989… i couldnt have guessed that…wait, i did… these short covering moves are such nonsense - support, sma’s, bla bla
AGAIN if this was a NORMAL day, i strongly think we would go negative…..or at least flat…. i am saying this so you understand that when the “opens are sold” then we pop higher, there is NOTHING to stop the fall, and the gaps tend to completely fill late in the day - meaning the close gets sold hard
986…do as you should and sell this down…
we need to reverse here…. and get above 993 or so…. again, as mentioned, WHYYYY are people long once 993.63 cleared, lol amazing
If we close out 3:15 below 990, we may go negative
come on get down there and end this fake nonsense
look like we need to get under about 982 near the close to get the panic going
ok, 987 has to hold here….we should bounce off 990 and go higher unless they intend on ripping this apart
long long long above 987 if this doesnt hold into the close, then kiss this rally bye
long
this HAS to hold here, IMO
dont get me wrong, i want 987 to clear as i despise these rallys that are total nonsense…. it is a brutal waste of time….
it refuses o move, traders know this rally is complete bs and are itching to plunge it…. but cant… ha
this low has sma support 990-991….. that is why it has to hold into the close
995, as i said, we should bounce 990 or so….it did
997… yawn
999
1000
1001… i do recall saying long long long a while back? lol
watch these knuckleheads rally into the close so they can unload this nonsense soon
1002
1003
as much as this is pathetic, we likely will close at the high of the day
1006… did i mention long at 990-991? lol….
1007
long at 991 is only 140 points on the Dow, but better than a kick in the ass…. I still think people buying here above 1000 - unless a trade - are complete idiots. This move higher since the low is 100% not supported by fact or chart
we did hit the high of the day in the last 15 mins, which is typical for gap days… however, this gap isn’t supported… it was election day bs with shorts waiting….and waiting….but they WILL take this down…once given the chance
New high in the last minute…. as i have said…close days tend to close at or near the high of the day….. I just wasnt on board with this move as we all know what this is about…. enjoy your election party or crying