Morning Call: Futures Up
October 28, 2008 9:38 AM
The market is set for a rebound as asian markets have put in at least a trading low. The Nikkei rebounded last night after spiking to a 26 year low to close up over 6%. And people think our markets have been bad - 26 year low. This move is not surprising as we are just above the lows and traders have a firm number to be long and the Fed meets. The only question is can this last after the Fed - that I am not certain of.
Today is likely to be a very difficult day to trade. We have Friday’s high on the SP that needs to clear to be long this big move higher and nothing to the downside to stop any move lower late - again. This is likely short covering and buying ahead of the Fed cut. I do not like moves like this as they can create parabolic moves to the downside one they turn south again.
10:00 EST Update: Consumer Confidence comes in at 38 - the worst level since the number was reported beginning in 1967. I am shocked at that, like not at all. Lucky the Fed is cutting tomorrow or the shorts would rip this thing apart. I am not certain of the “true” open, but I think the true open has cleared. That tells me we may check down further. The only thing saving this today is the Fed or we would test going negative, for sure.
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The sma that caused an issue yesterday is about 882 on the SP…we will see … if this is short covering and i believe it is…it will likely disregard all lines and climb
If we can clear Fridays high in the SP in the first hour, my guess is we will make a run at 8700 on the Dow… not sure how to trade this but to throw all caution to the wind….which in this market is a little scary
My personal view is to see if we can get a check down and a firm low to be long…. but I am not sure that will happen today…. impossible to know today with the Fed meeting coming
Down 100 off the high already… the market skeptic that i am says they will take this down first if they want to take this higher…so they can buy….what good is a big move higher if the big players aren’t making money? lol
This is impossible to trade right now… the earliest we are likely to see a firm low - or attempt at one would be after 10:30 EST as I see things… traders will not have a a firm number until then
I believe the open has cleared…if this was a “normal” day - no Fed - we would most likely test 8200 or go negative…. no idea if that will happen today… we have no firm low, that i know
If they want to take this higher, they will spike this below 8341 and then make a sharp Uturn higher…
OK 8332 low…. lets see if they can reverse it
No sign of a reversal as of yet….again IF this was a normal day we WOULD probably go negative or close to it
Down all the way to 8310 already….
8282…ha. I know how traders “think”, lol
If we want a firm low, we need to go below 8250….IMO
8240 and no sign of a reversal….i wont be happy until we go negative and the market does as it “should”