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Morning Call: Futures Down, Economic Data Out at 10:00 EST

October 31, 2008 9:19 AM

pouringcoffee.jpgThe futures are down a bit this morning. Thirty minutes before the bell the Dow is down 112. I mentioned that key sma support is coming and that a big gap down could be bought. However the size of the gap is not enough for that to come into play and intraday charts should dictate today. The key I believe is still taking out Wednesday’s low to maybe get some selling pressure here. If we break below that low we would need a reversal to keep contained the selling i believe. As I have mentioned before, there are zero reversals down below and why I have mnetioned this move is a complete house of cards waiting to tumble.

Intraday charts should dictate but I believe being long today is going to be difficult if we clear Wednesday’s low. We have Chicago PMI and MI Sentiment out at 10:00 EST. I would be shocked if the sentiment index isn’t far below expectations. PMI will likely be worse as well. PMI will likely move the market as I think everyone already assumes the sentiment will be bad.

Update: The futures have improved a bit. Keep in mind, even if we clear Wednesday’s high, we could still reverse. If we clear it then today will be a “close” day, and it may get very volatile into the close again. If we clear Wednesday’s low, it is not a close day, but I expect pressure if that happens. We will see. In addition, it is the last day of the month. I do not pay much attention to the monthly charts, but if we close here, the trend is clearly down for November and the trendline is about 1050 on the SP. To break out of that line, we would need a huge rally today.

Open Update: We only opened down a couple of points, so the open is not meaningful. If we cannot break down soon, the sma lines are coming. Normally this sideways action with sma support on it’s way leads to another push higher. I just do not like long this train wreck as we have nothing to stop any downside other than sma support.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Pre-Open 

Comments

9 Responses to “Morning Call: Futures Down, Economic Data Out at 10:00 EST”

  1. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 9:43 am

    938 is key number to test Wednesdays low… that has to be taken out… a break and hold under that should get more weakness i believe

  2. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 9:47 am

    This 945 area are the sma’s that I watch, it may try and hold above this until the data… we need a sharp break down below 938 and hold there to take this down i think

  3. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 9:51 am

    Just as i thought… it won’t move… sma’s suggest we may see a sharp move here and soon…odds favor a sharp break down i believe…but the data should dictate this break… it bounced off 945 area about 4 points… we have to take out 938 on the Sp and 9018 on the Dow to have any downside pressure… there will be traders long above both unless they clear… if they clear i think it will trigger stops and we should spike lower

  4. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 10:03 am

    Hmmm Mi sentiment was ok, how i have no idea….who did they poll are freaking kidding me? PMI was brutal… the market has moved higher on the data… we are in a wedge pattern today, this is likely to break possibly big here, one way or another

  5. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 10:06 am

    It isnt moving… we will see a break one way or another today I believe… but we have to take out the numbers I said to have any weakness

  6. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 10:11 am

    If we clear 9234 here, we will likely spike higher i believe… but we still have Wednesdays high to deal with…traders are undecided right now it seems

  7. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 10:12 am

    we should spike higher…as in right now BUT Wednesdays high… hmmm…. but 9014 and 983 ARE the numbers now… those HAVE to hold on any move down

  8. Tom@StockBlade.com on October 31st, 2008 10:15 am

    9266 is important…it is yesterdays high… there are too many variables today, lol thats why it wont move, most likely…

  9. Scott on November 3rd, 2008 12:32 pm

    Where do you see MOO , XLE, XLB trading short term?

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