Morning Call: FNM Misses Big, Futures Only Down 3
August 8, 2008 9:22 AM
FNM missed big as I said to expect. Expected loss $.69 cents, they lost a mre $2.54. I still do not understand why analysts are paid as they either know zero or have no interest in trying to give the public a relal indication, not sure which. Anyhow, oil is down over $2.00, which will help.
I still expect an attempt to reverse the market early on. If the market cannot reverse early, then more trouble is likely late.
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We opened above yesterdays low, I personally do not like it
Ok, that didn’t last long….down to 1262 already.. 1257.50 is key i believe…
Trying to reverse already…1262.25 early low…
Going exactly as planned, thus far…spike to 1266.50 already
As long as we stay above 1264, the trade is long
1269…
come on down….checkdowns should be bought as I see things…
This open low is likely to hold, if it doesnt, big trouble is likely….
That check down to 1266 was likely a gift
We need to get over 1269 and hold 1262.25 to confirm we have likely seen todays low…
All the charts indictate a negative bias…I believe they are all wrong…
Just as I thought 1270 already…
1275 area it is likely to check down…
1271…
1272.50
This move looks powerful…
Come on down….
I still believe any checkdowns are a gift unless we clear todays high first and reverse..
any weakness near 1269 here the shorts will be donating their money, as i see it
1274…
More caution in this area - for now…we may reverse in here….temporarily
Easy money has been made…it will take some time in here to know.. as long as we stay above 1271.50 everything is ok here, IMO
man, this thing is going crazy… 1275…I just wouldnt chase it in here, as not certain…
1276.50….I believe we are going wayyyy up today, eventually..
Man i wish it was always this easy……why on earth were people taking the short side of that? lol I mean it doesnt get any easier than that
If we clear yesterdays high, I believe we are going to break 1300 - today
Well, we are near yesterdays high on the futures…I still believe unless we reverse here, this is going to be a huge move to the upside today
Todays low is likely to be a multi day, maybe multi week low…this is the most powerful long i have seen…I missed the 1275…I thought it would check down there and then move higher…it blew right through the line that was causing issues yesterday…
The reason this move was so powerful and WHY I have been very critical of the SP lows, was that we had zero buy points on ANY charts. All of the charts reversed off todays low at the same time, other than the very short term - remember my motto? Clarity and agreement - we had major agreement early
1286…
I still believe this move is going to be HUGE
We may pause in this 1286 range as the gap from yesterday filled…some of those people may want out….
I got news for the shorts…If we clear Wedesdays high….I have no idea how high we will go, but the move is going to be BIG
The big charts still show a negative bias…weird…I dont see it…we have had trouble in this range before…
Todays high is right on the trend line down on the cash market on the SP…we cleared yesterdays high on the futures, but not the cash market, apparently
Todays high was also EXACTLY on the gap fill
I am not sure in here….as mentioned, today’s high is right on the trendline…
weird action…has traded sideways now for 1.5 hours….market is clearly undecided whether to really push this up…could be timing also…the longer we stay up here, the increased chance of another push…but I am not certain yet..
My “guess” is if we clear the high before 12:30 the market may go nuts to the upside…
here we go….its trying…
Bounced exactly off the high…careful…we need this to clear…closer to 12:30 the better..
Cleared…we need to stay above 1285….before 12:30…
Unless we make a reversal, there is NOTHING to stop the move, as i see things..
I still believe we will clear 1300 before days end..possibly far higher
1285.50 is key here before 12:30, as i see things…we need to close above it
If we spike higher here and fail to take out the recent highs, we may reverse, if we dont, then I have no idea how high we will go…
We have to clear 1291.75 on the futures…if we clear that, then I expect the market to explode to the upside…we will see..
Well, once again not certain here…we HAVE to clear the recent highs to be long here, no sign of a high for today…it is the recent highs that are causing this to stall here i believe..
Here we go…if we clear 1291.75 BEFORE 1:30, it should go nuts…
We have to close out 1:30 above 1287.50 I believe, or we may see some trouble here..
cleared it, but we ran out of time for a low risk big pop…
opps…we didnt, it was 1291.75, which is todays high…my bad
The shorts should flip out if we go higher here..
Here we go, if we cannt immediately reverse we are going over 1300 i believe…as i said longgggggggggggggggggg ago…
We need to stay above 1291 here
If we clear 1293.50 in the next 3 mins, it should go nuts
ermind, it did when I was trying to type…ha
Careful, we need to close 2: above 1291 or this may be trouble here..
The only way i would see any possible problems is if we closed out 2:30 below 1291….other than that I do not see any problems
We should get rolling again after 2:15 one way or another…it has traded sideways until it hits a key sma then takes off….we will hit it again after 2:15
Well, once again, if we clear the high BEFORE 2:30, I think we will go straight up
Here we go…
1294.25….
1295 is high, we clear that soon, should spike far higher..
We would have to close out 2:30 below 1292.75..to cause problems now…
Yawn, lets just get over 1300 qand get it over with
I still believe we will close at or near the high of the day….
Hmmm, if we close out 2:45 below 1295…it may cause some shorts to pile on here
ok, it did…its at a breaking point now…1294.25 is likely key…we would have to clear that to get longs nervous…
That may be the high, be very careful here unless it clears…
No idea here…big picture I would think we would close at the high of the day….but caution here…we have to clear this high