Morning Call: Election Over, News Should Dictate Again, Today Is Intraday Chart Day

November 5, 2008 12:23 PM

I believe the election trade is over and done. I mentioned that I believed that both Monday and Tuesday were likely to be very similar to “fed days” where the shorts stay on the sidelines and the trade becomes one sided to the long side. This is essentially what happened. Now we will see the true resolve of the market.

The chart appears likely to contain any selling early on today. If we are going to get pressure, it would likely have to come later and that will depend on how long we stay down and how low we go. This is because these moves have been strictly sma driven and there is no clear number to be long this, as I see things. The intraday charts should dictate today’s action. Unless we clear yesterday’s high, it is not a close day. And we would have to go below 950 and reverse to make it a close day to the upside. Therefore, this is an intraday chart day.

Tomorrow is likely to be the key for direction, not today. We have nonfarm payrolls tomorrow as well as unemployment. Both are very likely to be ugly. If they want to take this higher, they need to spike it below 950 tomorrow and reverse it. If that happens then the market would likely have a new tradeable low to make another push higher. Keep in mind I said “if”.

11:25 Update: The Dow and SP charts are not in sync here. The Dow has not put in a low or high, but the SP has done both. It rejected just over 1000 a bit ago, and caused this selling. 985 should contain the selling on this leg down I believe. Look for it to reverse above it. If it doesn’t hold, then it is possible we may see another spike down, but it is too early in the chart to really put the heat on here.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Pre-Open

Comments

10 Responses to “Morning Call: Election Over, News Should Dictate Again, Today Is Intraday Chart Day”

Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:30 pm

If we are going to retest 1000, it should spike down after 11:30 above 985 and reverse
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:31 pm

Ok, there is 988…there should be longs in here above the low
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:34 pm

stuck here at 988…. its deciding, if it clears, we may see 982 or lower…. this still appears too early to take this down
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:36 pm

again, if we are going to retest the high, we should reverse right here…look for it to get back over 990 here and then we should revisit high 990’s… this could be a tight range here, not sure yet… the longer we stay down here, the weaker the chart will become over time
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:42 pm

Refuses to move…hmmm…. if they truly wanted to take this higher, they would have reversed this will some power above 990 I believe….
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:44 pm

If this low clears, then some longs will bail… it is going to depend on the reaction after - if it clears to know whether the market is in big trouble
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:45 pm

trend break we should bounce here above the low I believe
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:46 pm

wrong, low cleared…. hmmmm… this is key here we have to reverse now… if we cannot, this may get ugly here - eventually…. I still think it is far far too early in the chart to plunge this thing…we will see
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 12:58 pm

We have not seen the lows, IMO, all strength should be sold into unless we clear the low first… this is timing ONLY…9413 is not the low
Tom@StockBlade.com on November 5th, 2008 1:01 pm

we have a bit of a trend break and it is far too early to sell this down… strength should be sold into under 995 as i see things… if we get that high…. if we do not take these lows out and reverse, this sets up a possible break lower late