Market Update: Trend Day Down Thus Far
November 6, 2008 2:10 PM
We are obviously having severe weakness, but I still see no signs of a low. In addition, many of these type of days close at or near the low of the day. We would have to close positive today for any signal to be given that this is a decent low, which seems very unlikely. It appears that a decent low will likely be made on Monday at the earliest. There is a lot of seperation from the moving averages here, so it is possible that we could see bounces, but without a firm low, they will likely be sold into.
Again, as I repeatedly warned there is nothing to stop any fall above the lows and this drop and yesterday’s is not surprising. Trying to pick a low to be long days like this is generally a suckers bet - unless there is chance at positive into the close. If the market even sniffs that an hour before the close, we will see extreme volatility late.
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We would have to spike lower and reverse and then close out 2:00 EST above 8800 to maybe put in a bottom, IMO
8724 should not be the low here…
It is trying to reverse off a new low here… not certain yet
This could be a bounce off a big number, 8700, not sure yet… 8800 should be an indication soon
It has given 2 false attempts of a low already today…so have to be careful…. these days can get ugly
This is the 3rd attempt to stop the selling…. I am skeptical of anything long on days like this… I have been proven wrong more often than not…
It is deciding whether to take this low out…we may see a decent spike lower if it clears here
Dow low cleared, sp is hanging by a thread
cleared…
That is why you have to be 100% certain to be long days like today….
As mentioned, we should see a decent move down here I believe
We have not seen the low, IMO
This move down has been very orderly and running in a trend day down channel… if we can break much lower here, we should see some volatility
We have a bit of a trend break from the channel here… I dont like these moves if we see strength here…. but we may run somewhat higher because of this - maybe… but will likely reverse again
yep, ugh, I despise trend traders, lol
This is basically a trend break off a double bottom…. I dislike these moves…. I am not sure how high we will go before reversing this nonsense…. a lot of people pick out big numbers to buy… 900 on the SP was likely it
To say that i am skeptical we have seen the low is an understatement
Looks like if we are going to get more weakness it will likely come in the last hour, not before because of this trend break… this is the first break of the day….skeptical this is it
Trendbreak has caused this strength…still very skeptical… if they want to sell this hard into the close, they will pop it above this recent high and reverse it….I do not like trading these trends on any level, but thats me
Caution here, I think if they pop this higher it should reverse
Ugh it appears we are going to be in an uptrend into the close…. my guess is this is going to get very volatile in the last 30 minutes…. I just dislike this low… but maybe the trend will hold, I am not sure
looks like it has to stay well above 8700 here into the close or we should spike to a new low and close at the low I believe
2 minutes… this better stay up
ok, the trendline appears to be about 8750, if we get much below that here I think they are going to shred it
That trend is broken it appears to me and we have no firm low…. I smell big trouble brewing into the close
8696….and counting
ugh these knucklheads keep buying this area…. give this stupidity up
Not sure why this low is important, It appears to me to be nothing…. it held again…thus far..
hmmm sitting here…. they are debating if this should be shredded… im not sure… but my guess is yes
Hmmm I fail to see why they are defending this low… it is just a dang trendbreak from before, it is meaningless…. unless I am missing something
refuses to move….
Investors buy put options when they buy stock so it supports the stock price, when we come back down the market see those new put’s.imo
wont move at all…. they are clearly debating which direction to take this in the next 30 minutes… I see no low of any kind that I like
finally… new lows… 900 may be an issue here on the SP MAYBE… but again these days tend to close at the low…
the sp low has held, thus far… barely… I missed that, was looking at the Dow…. this is going to get VERY interesting in the last 30 mins, i expect volatility
There could be buyers here at this low for some reason… 900 I guess… it refuses to take out the low on the SP… hmmm
They may just give up and cover shorts here, I have no idea… but I still believe a day like today will close at or near the low…we will see
the SP low cleared and still refuses to go down… there are buyers here apparently….
there we go… 902… this seems to me to be nothing more than people buying on a big number as i said before… I think they are wronggg
bounce directly off 900…
If we close 3:45 above 907, then this low has to hold into the close or it may melt down
ok, this low HAS to hold into the close or there should be panic….
905 and change, it better hold here
shorts should cover here I think we will run to about 920… I just do not like moves like this as it is meaningless for the most part….but I think shorts have to cover here… I think…days like today tend to close at the low though
not much of a move, backed off 910… these days tend to close at the low….this low better hold here or longs will get out and we should spike down
sitting right on 903… debating… the move was very small off the low, probably because time is running out and we have zero chance of going positive..
901… it bettterrr hold or the only thing to stop the selling will be the clock
new low but refuses to go down againnnn this 900 stuff is pure nonsense and annoying… give this silliness up
thats why you have to be careful long on days like today….they tend to close AT the low of the day, regardless if we get what appears to be a firm low
2 more minutes, refuses to go below 900… people picked out a big number to buy at apparently… and it cant punch through it
Anyhow, I was wrong that we would move up to 920 or so near the close, we only got to about 910… thats why I said being long close days …..unless we have time to go positive…. is generally a suckers bet…. what appears to be a firm low gets taken out
anyhow, tomorrow should be interesting…