Market Update: Doesn’t Look Good, 818 and 826
November 19, 2008 12:26 PM
It just tried to reverse and failed at 830. It is possible it could reverse above 826, yesterday’s low. If 826 clears then traders will likely get very nervous whether 818 can hold today. Like I mentioned last night, yesterday just did not “feel” convincing, and it made no intraday low.
The rest of the day may get very interesting, and possibly very volatile. If we clear 818 the market is probably in big trouble today. It just seems unlikely they are going to plunge this until GM is resolved, but it certainly is possible.
The way I view the market is if we clear 826, then yesterday did not matter - it is taken off the board. What that means is we once again need to close the day positive for it to have any meaning, IMO. So 826 is important here, as I see things.
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828 and change…. I am not sure what will happen if 826 clears…. but this has the potential for a big down day because of where it opened…
827… it better hold, IMO
My guess is if 826 clears we will test 818… whether it can hold or not, i don’t know
826 has held… thus far… by pennies
IMO Obama and the Dems in general would welcome the plunge prior to taking office because they can get it out of the way with so to speak and can take credit for future market gains. No doubt this is a consideration of theirs.
If you want to be long this thing, the big picture is 818, IMO. I believe if it clears, we will likely ttst the Dow low, probably today
But again… we do not have a firm low on the day…. it is possible we could see 826 hold today with no firm low, im not sure of anything right now… this doesnt look too good…. but there is likely only one trade here, and thats long above 826 and 818… and see if they hold - or not
ok, todays low is right on an hourly trend break and more importantly, a fraction above yesterdays low
yep, up to 834… a 1:00 EST close above 838 would be important here for the hourly traders
I dont like todays low, but it is what it is… either 826 was going to hold - or it wasn’t
I also notice basically zero action from the G20 to stop the fall of the market either
I’m not seeing a move to 838 for the hourly
I think if Obama was in office, the market would be faring far better possibly, because of HOPE of something being done… the market is just as much about hope for the future as it is reality…personally, my hunch is Obama is going to act more to the center than most people believe…but who knows, I think nobody knows for sure… he is a bright guy… and people will have hope for the future… whether that turns out to be true or not is another question….. to fix the economy is going to take time, no matter who is running the show… I am confident that he would not let GM fail…. if they let GM fail, I think it will be a big big mistake by Bush… failing in two years is far different than failing now…. the economy might be in better shape… failing now would turn this very very ugly as i see things
I agree, I would try to provide a bridge loan to keep them afloat
I know, i am sounding like an Obama fan lately, lol… I am just tired of of everyone asleep at the switch and it is time to get someone in there that can figure this out… whether i will agree with policies he chooses, I have no idea, but one thing is probably clear, he will know whats going on at least….. so I think he has the potential to be a very good president… possibly… I mean at least he has a brain, lol…
anyhow, who cares…. I really dont give one flip about politics anymore… I just want the economy fixed so we can get the market to work in our favor…. everyone gets all worked up about a big pile of nothing… and even being a republican, i am glad they lost, they deserved it…. if you screw things up, you should lose… thats the way a democracy - or anything - should work
anyhow, back to this silly market, lol… 826 was the number, as i said…. and it held… at least for now
even though it did not finish above 838, we do have a trend break here… I am just a bit skeptical of how high we can go off this very shaky low above 826… if we close weak today, even if 826 holds, with this shaky low, I dont think it will hold tomorrow, most likely
If we close out 1:15 below 833, this could be trouble
what a knucklehead i am, the trade was long above 826.. duhhhh lol…. would have been nice to have made a decent low however
842 or so may be the near term test… any spike to that area and reverse would likely spell trouble… we only have one firm high, and thats todays high
the hourly trend break is about 830 or so… that suggests that area should try and hold on any weakness before 2:00
hmmm 829
I am still very skeptical of todays low… just dont know here
828…. decision time boys and girls
827.50… its deciding…
ok, new low… it needs to reverse right here i believe… if not….it could be trouble
I would guess it will attempt to reverse right here….827.11 is the low…. it needs to reverse hard here i do believe… any new low here will take out yesterdays low… which is somewhat important
ha… it wont move…the market is debating what to do here
826.98… hm I think yesterdays low was 826.89 or something like that
ok, yesterdays low on the Dow may hold any selling here… if that clears, then 818 is likely in trouble
ok, yesterdays low on the SP has cleared… I just dont know whats going to happen because of 818 below…
pop down to 824 once yesterdays low cleared…. this is now a CLOSE day
yesterdays Dow low is probably important here
once again, here is the big picture, IMO… well everything is ONLY my opinion, lol… the trade is still long above 818… I think it is as simple as that… either 818 is going to hold - or it isnt… simple… if it clears today, then we should test the Dow low
ok, it reveresed… this probably needs to be the low of the day….
the heck with it, im long SSO…
good luck
this is a very risky trade… we have to close positive… im either going to win big here - or get torched… we will see
what is your SSO #?
832 go baby
SSO is ProShares Ultra for the SP… it is leveraged 2 times… so its move will be double the SP… in both directions - obviously
835 get your butt up there
I bought SSO at 23.19… I didnt get the low, my bad, lol
835 2:00 close would be good… comme onnnn get up there
ughgggg 833… not good… I still might be ok, not sure… would have been nice to get everyone on board though
I might be in trouble…. we have to close positive today…. long time yet
come on, just get up there and give me a break for once, lol
ugh 829… SOB
if this low clears… I am probably in biggg trouble, lol
826… im probably toast
im not existing unless 818 clears… simple as that… if it does I am personally hitting the sell market button as fast as i can hit it, lol
maybe you should have played PSQ instead, lol
as i said, this is a high risk or low risk, depending on how you look at it….. on one hand, we need to close positive… on the other hand we have 818 below…. the problem is if we close weak… and 818 holds…. the risk is extreme as we may clear it tomorrow at the open…. not sure what I will do if that happens…
lol, nope…. 818 is either going to clear, or it isnt
I think i need Obama in office like NOW to help me out on this trade… ha ha ha
where is my Bible… I need to go get it… I need some divine intervention on this, lol
I definately do not like what is going on, thus far…. we will see
If we close above 818 but close… im exiting… stupid maybe… but we may gap down tomorrow if that happens… im not going to guess here
it appears that I am in deep do odo most likely… lol
yep… new low… ughhh
any low should not come until after 2:30 now… this clearly does not look good
hmmm if we can close out 2:30 above 833… we may go straight up
if if if…lol
well, thats not going to happen… I had some hope… lol
833 does not look good
I dont give a hoot if we have a firm low or not… im not selling unless 818 clears… its as simple as that, lol… if we get a close short covering rally… ill take it
we should make a new low, IMO
that didnt take long… 822… here we go…
if 818 clears, we may implode… I wont be guessing if it happens… that I know
not much interest in reversing this, thus far
if we can close out 2:45 above 830, I think we may go straight up… if if if if
get up there…
831… wooo hooo come on…. give me a close rally….
ok, this likely has to be it…. either 818 is toast or we are going to rally…. probably as simple as that… we need to clear 832 here to maybe get the shorts to cover
come on… go go go go
this move off the low looks decent…..the close is all that matters though… this may get very very volatile
836… straight up here is not impossible
840 before 3:00 est and the shorts are going to freak i believe
hmmm backing off… come on….get up thereee
above 835 3:00 close…. appears to be important
if we are above 835 near 3, I thinkkkk a close rally will get some steam… well, i hope, lol
almost had another day of “tune in and watch Tom lose his money”… still may…lol
ughhh backing off again… the next 5 mins may tell the story into the close… or seems likely
ughhh 831… not good grrr
a 3:00 close below 828… and the low may be in trouble, in a hurry….
2 mins… come on… cut me some slack here, lol
834… 1 min… isnt this fun? ha
ok, good close… about 834… thats ok… 840 appears to be the key here
back to 828…. this low better hold into the close… thats all i know, lol
if we can clear 840 before 3:15… straight up would be my guess….. close day….. a huge move is not impossible
its getting pretty choppy
time is important here… traders know we likely need to close positive
the recent high of about 837-838 is an sma line….thats why if we can clear 840 here the shorts will get nervous into the close…. I need short covering here to spike it
I smell a huge move coming, just can’t say up or down but looks like this will end violent today
why on earth people sell at 821 when 818 HAS to clear to sell is beyond my possible comprehension…. but I look at the market different than most maybe
ohhhh it may move… lol closeeee day…. if they smell positive is possible… shorts will cover
it keeps backing off the sma line… we may have needed a 3:15 close above 840 to really rally… appears unlikely
hmmm time is getting short…. time is an issue here
if we are going to close in here… I am selling at the close…. im not guessing what tomorrow will bring, period… right wrong or otherwise
this sucks…. they couldnt get above 840… not good
it looks like we may close at the low now… time is running out
yeppp new low… not good
if we clear 818 I think we are going to close at the low, obviously…. I knew the risk today, as mentioned… win big or lose… one or the other…
820… this may get very ugly
if we get a bounce here, im selling… that I know… we cant close positive or very unlikely
again, it is posssible…. 818 will hold and we may shoot up tomorrow… but I am not going to guess on that…. complete panic is not impossible… I took another chance at a close day homerun… once again… no dice
sp low has cleared, albeit by a few pennies… I dont care if it is ONE cent… I exited
I lost 59 cents on SSO… took another swing…..such is life… man, twice in a row I picked the wrong day for a close rally… lol… dang it… I knew we had to clear 840 to have any chance at positive into the close… didnt happen… such is life…
I cannot imagine we wont close at the low…. maybe the Dow will hold it…. I would think no?
whyyyy are people long here? I guess i just dont understand, lol i mean the line was pretty clear… either 818 was going to hold or it wasnt… simple… but thats how i view things….
the only thing thats stopping a complete meltdown is the Dow low… but thats still over 200 points down
people long once 818 cleared are crazyyyyy, lol I mean come on… but what do I know… I am just some amateur, rather obviously… lol
once it cleared 818 it fell fast for sure
of course…. there is 10 mins to go… we cant close positive… whats the point of being long here? I dont get it… they are all guessing here on what may happen tomorrow… good luck with that, lol
the DOW also hit a new low right?
no, the Dow low is 7773, thats probably why there are some buyers here…. its the only reason…. but I mean we are still a good distance above that here… this is buying the Dow 8000, nothing more, IMO…. good luck is all I have to say
IMO once 818 cleared, the only thing likely to stop the selling is the clock…. the market works in mysterious ways, lol
clearing 800 before the close is not impossible… what in the world are people thinking long once 818 cleared… i guess if you are investing or something, I dont know…. not me…. noooo interest in guessing what will happen tomorrow… i actually exited before 818 cleared… i saw that we were not going to close positive… so we hit 819 and I said peace out
anyhow, lost again….well, I knew it was a risky trade going in …. thats why I did a small share size… at least i had an exit plan and not watch it drop another 150 points … have a good day
ohhh lastly, SSO closed near the low of the day…. exiting saved me about a dollar…. and maybe a LOT more, lol I need to listen to my own advice…. i said early that if 826 clears… then 818 would likely be tested…and we HAD to close positive… I thought about exiting with a profit… but we still had 45 mins to go and positive was still possible…. ohhh well