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Market Recap: Finally Call Proved Correct

July 31, 2008 9:24 PM

piggybank2.jpgI mentioned pre-open that we were going to open down and if we were going to see serious pressure, it should come late as the futures suggested it should try and hold and or bounce early in the day. Right on target. The gap was bought and more than filled, and then sold off towards the close. I like the markets when they do as i think they “should”….I am unhappy with the markets when they do not do as they “should”…ha.

Tomorrow should be important as we have Non-farm Payrolls pre-open and ISM at 10:00 EST. It looks like 11,086 is important on the Dow for a low. There are no important lows on the SP.

I just hope the lows clear so the Monday Morning QB’s like Cramer can eat some crow. Him “calling” the bottom after the fact is pure comedy. You cannot possibly call a top or bottom. it isn’t possible and anyone that says so is a complete liar or idiot. All you can do is look at what is going on and say hmmm…. this “may be the bottom” or the top and go from there.

If you want to use his “I called the bottom bs” then i called the top of the market on the EXACT day, and that is a fact. I emailed at least 20 people i knew THE night the SP made the high and said TROUBLE. I also called the exact high on AAPL last year. Here is the problem. Did I know for sure that we had seen the exact high on the SP? No. Did i know for certain that we had seen the exact high on AAPL? No. I knew that both were a short below the highs, but that is all I or anyone knew. It just happened to work out that both calls were the all time highs. I cannot take credit of that nature for that. I did warn very strongly of the SP high however, I will admit, as I emailed my friends and said “this appears ominous for both short and long term”.

But for him or anyone to make the claim that they called the high or bottom is complete fiction. For example, i saw the high of the SP and thought big trouble was possible and emailed everyone I knew. Did I know for sure? No. Using this same nonsensical logic, then i apparently called the low on FNMA and can take credit for a 100% move in a week. I saw that the gap low was bought and knew traders would be long above that low of $6.83, I believe. Could that low have cleared? Yes. Did it? No. So, using his logic, I called the low within - exactly. It is complete nonsense.  

Did Cramer “know” we had seen a bottom? No chance. He is playing Monday Morning Quarterback. In fact, I am still not convinced, on any level, we have seen the ultimate low. It depends on where the economy goes, long term. 

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Pre-Open 

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