Market Open: 1263.25 and 1266 Early, First 5 Mins Was Bought
August 21, 2008 9:37 AM
I believe we have to reverse early, most likely in the first 30 minutes. If we cannot, then we are likely in trouble. Once again watch the gap. If the gap is sold, unlike yesterday, then we will have a firm high for the day to be sold against. Yesterday the open was bought and then sold down to make a low. Those types of actions are far more difficult and creates choppy trade. The first test will be 1260.50. If open here and take that out, the market HAS to reverse and take out the open high, as I view things, or we may finally get the big down day I have been looking for.
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I went long at 1265.75. We would need to get under 1263.25 quickly to cause problems here…as i see things..
In theory “my theory”…. we should go higher before taking out 1263.25…thats how I always view the market until proven otherwise..
New high…. (already had it typed)…was just waiting for it to happen…ha
High thus far 1270.50…that is a direct hit on an sma… again in MY theory that is NOT todays high
Nevermind 1271…
1273 high, thus far, gap has filled…we HAVElear yesterdays high…if we do, I believe we are going straight up, regardless of the nonsense talk on tv
We need to get back over 1269 in the next 3 mins…. or this is going to be a big battle between the high and low…
If we clear the high, i believe we are going UPPPP
We still have to clear yesterdays high…so it is possible there will be some caution up here…. but I think they are likely wrong selling there…we will see..
I see no sign of a high….we have to clear yesterdays high…I get that…but for today we have a firm high and no firm low…as I see things…
This drop was caused by short term charts and yesterdays high…which is very important…but I still believe they are wrong…the low SHOULD hold
In theory we should reverse in this area 1266 or so
What is your take on the base metals rally in the past two days? Base metals indexes may or may not “influence” the markets, bu the are undoubtedly a good indicator. This climb seems unstoppable, and the dollar is losing serious ground against other currencies today(2% hit against the euro already ). In light of this why should the market go up?
hmmmm chart says low should hold here…but oil is skyrocketing…up $6
shot up off 1265.50 to 1269…. …why people short down there is beyond me..one of us is a knucklehead for sure…lol
hmmmm maybe I am the knucklehead here…lol….the sma’s are cusing the problem here and oil is going crazy
My chart shows the “open” at 1271 and currently @ 1266. I think any momentary upward bumps today are going to be minor (or miner) caused by rallies in the oil and base metals producers with the overall market impetus following the dollar…. I think your right about “one of us being a knucklehead” for sure.
Ok, I was right…all the way back to 1273… be careful in this area now…
Too much risk in this range, IMO…if we clear and hold yesterdays high, we should move higherbut being long at 1274 is silly IMO
Ugh, still no firm reversal of a high…will have to wait this out… no trade in this area as i see things
No trade in this area as i see things still…. I would like to see it clear 1274 and make a firm reversal…ideally..
If we do not move higher first, 1265.50 is likely to hold again….
what a wste of time…either make a firm high and sell it down or dont
Its lunch so things are slow…there is no trade in this range unless scalping as i see things… with that said…we have 2 good lows in for today and zero points short - other than yesterdays high……..soooo I wouldnt short weakness, IMO
Yawn… all the charts appear on the same page here to retest the high…but thats how i see it..
New high…(already had it typed….as of 1:11….ha just been waiting for it to happen
Todays high 1275.50…yesterdays high 1276.75… there should be a bit of caution up here
If we clear yesterdays high…use a bit of caution near 1280
If we clear 1276.75 before 1:30, we should shoot up like a cannon…until 1:30
They just do not like to make things simple…
They are selling on double top nonsense, which I believe in like not at all…but again, yesterdays high is key, IMO
I would guess we will not clear 1271-1272 here to the downside… but traders may be getting a bit concrned they cant push it through yesterdays high…
new high 1276….be careful of a reversal here…we can break either way
If we close out the next 3 mins below 1273.50…they may try and sell this down from here…
1273.50…get down there..
ugh, what a game, they closed it at 1273.75
I am still very skeptical that is the high, but it is possible…. but it is just a failed attempt at yesterdays high…not a rejection of a high today…althought they tried in a big way
what a waste of time… 1265 area should be a floor. but doubt we will go that low
short term players trying to sell it down again…once again, I believe they are wrong….
man this is boring… clear it and lets go or dontttt…waste of time
1276.50 high…ha… chickens…lol
It hit 1276.75 on the nose… we have to push through it now or selling may come in
im short 1275.25 if it clears then it does…
If it doesnt clear, this could lead to some pressure….good risk/reward trade as i see things..
its going to clear I believe…I flattened
cleared…as i thought…we still “may reverse up here near 1280-1281, not sure…but in theory..its long until proven so, as I see things
If we are going to reverse and sell into the close, we need a new high and reverse around 1381…IMO
1281…ha
Backed off 1281 on the nose…if we clear 1281 BEFORE 3:00 we should spike and challenge 1284
im short at 1279.75 with a hard stop above 1281….its deciding.. but it needs to get below 1278.50 or I will be limited out..
actually, make that 1278.50…
there we go…in there we should get a little pressure here i believe…
1278…sell this pig down…
amazing, spiked up, took it out then went lower, what bs
Hi Jay,
I did not notice that you had commented as the first comment has to be approved a I get TONS of spam on here.
Anyhow, I agree, there was no logical reason, on any level, for the market to go up today. But the bottom line was this. If we did not clear 1260.50 to the downside we WERE going up. Period. Does that make sense? Not at all. But that is how the market works.
Also Jay, the market open was the futures. The cash open is a bunch of nonsense. We can open with a gap down of 10 and they will still show the open far higher, in general. Why that game is played, not sure, but it is what it is.