If Not For The Coming Release Of Iphone 3G, AAPL would be a short right here.
April 30, 2008 9:05 PM
If not for the Iphone coming release and the possible applehead euphoria, Apple would be a short at $175 with a hard stop above $180. Be very cautious long here, at the very least. If it does sell down here, and you want to be long, the $152 area probably won’t easily be exceeded, and $149.25 is likely to hold.
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Is AAPL a short here at $180? Or should we look for a short closer to $184 on any market strength next week? Would your target still be $152?
Hi Michael,
AAPL has tried to reverse twice lately and failed and immediately took out the reversal high. I believe it will reverse in here somewhere.I personally think the risk/reward for AAPL at these levels does not warrant to be long the stock. The ONLY way Apple can hold these levels is if they have another blockbuster product. If they do not, it is going to take a big haircut, IMO.
People are likely banking on the new 3G Iphone to push the stock higher. My issue with that theory is that the IPhone is NOT a competitor to RIMM’s Blackberry, period, end of discussion. It is a kids and casual user phone, not a business phone. People that think they are going to take massive share from RIMM on the business side are dead wrong.
I am normally not a huge “fundamental” guy as the market can (an usually is) wrong for long periods of time. But the stock is simply not worth $180 unless they have a new big product. it is really that simple. While I think that Jobs is probably at least twice as smart as Gates, and that can never be discounted, it isn’t easy to roll out blockbuster’s every year.
From a trading standpoint, the risk is FAR to great to be long the stock here. Let others take the risk and look elsewhere, IMO.
One more note…wihout news…and if AAPL slides, then yes, big checkdowns should be bought…as long as we do not clear today’s high FIRST and reverse.
Last note and a bit of free trading advice on AAPL. AAPL tends to follow the 1 hour 30 period SMA. Watch for reactions off that.
I do not personally trade AAPL, but I have watched it a long time because i have a friend that bought 2,000 shares (against my STRONG advice) in December at these levels….so i watch it for him. I told him to short the stock last December below $200 and he bought 2000 shares instead…I couldn’t believe it…
Opps, One more comment….NO…the $180 reversal was never confirmed and was taken out…i would not short the stock here until it rejects a new high. But I would not be long up here either, IMO.