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Fed Day

March 18, 2008 11:12 AM

The fed will be cutting rates today. Most expect a .75 cut. Not surprisingly, the futures are up this morning. At 6 CST they are at 1295.

It is generally best to avoid Fed days and see where everything shakes out.

The feeling I get is people are going to buy the market “because the market held after Bear news”. As my other posts stated, this would be the first real bottom of a bear market that I have ever seen without a true reversal in the SP. Is it possible? Anything is always possible. Is it likely based on history . No way.

I understand that Dow did finish positive and that is what this nonsensical bottom talk is hanging their hats on. Bottom line is the SP generally leads the market, long term. The Dow is just 30 stocks…and is always skewed to the upside as they simply remove stocks that are long term dogs and add new ones.

All I am saying is, I trust history, I trust the charts…they both tend to repeat themselves…day after day, month after month, and year after year. Take this bounce for whatever it is worth - but it is not the bottom, IMO. Again, unless this is the first time in history….

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