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Fed: .25 Cut As Expected, We Cleared Monday’s High, The Close is KEY Here…. Most Probable Now: We Will Close At The High, Or Negative, IMO

April 30, 2008 2:29 PM

We should either close at the high of the day or close negative. Why we are going higher is puzzling….the statement was not that great….IMO. It is possible traders are still going over the statement, so I am not 100%  convinced of direction yet….. If we get negative into the close, this could get ugly….If we are not going negative, we should close at the high of the day, IMO. But that is how new highs days USUALLY play out…not always…

 I know that isn’t much help. sorry….but trading post Fed is VERY difficult unless we have CLEAR direction and volume…

Close Update: This is why I never trade Fed day, or very rarely, and only if I am certain. Once we cleared Monday’s high, it appeared we were going to push higher all day. Wrong. It immediately sold down and we went negative. While I posted that we were either going to close at the high or go negative, it seemed unlikely that the Dow would lose 150 that quickly…so I wrongly assumed we would push higher. Fed days can be very erratic. They release the news…then traders read and digest the comments…then the dollar moves…etc. etc…. Point being, If I had had tried to trade today, I would likely have been crushed as I did not think we would make it to negative. 

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures 

Comments

9 Responses to “Fed: .25 Cut As Expected, We Cleared Monday’s High, The Close is KEY Here…. Most Probable Now: We Will Close At The High, Or Negative, IMO”

  1. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 2:50 pm

    The key is likely today’s high and low….If we get under 1394.25….or above 1407…we are going to move….until one of those happens, we are going to trade between those numbers it appears…

  2. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 2:58 pm

    This is looking shaky…there is obviously indecision….it could stay this way until 30 mins into the close….we cleared 1394.25…I diont like it…but this is hard to trade….but this doesnt look good…going negative is not out of the question now…

  3. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:03 pm

    Hmmm….This doesnt look good…but I am still uncertain….if we get under 1387, the rout should be on…

  4. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:09 pm

    If we cant make a reversal right here….1387 better hold…or the 1370-1372 level could be seen today… IMO…

  5. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:18 pm

    Ok, I forgot about 1384.25….that appears to be the last hope to stop us from heading to 1372….

  6. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:27 pm

    Post Fed is VERY difficult to trade, to say the least….and best left to the pros for the day, IMO….And I hate days like this where the only thing that matters is the close…because all…you know what…happens into the close…

  7. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:37 pm

    I think everyone is waiting to see if we are going to close positive…If we didn’t have 1384.25 from before, i would say this low is complete nonsense…we hit 1384.25 on the nose…

  8. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:48 pm

    Unusual day, to say the least…. There is obviously a big difference of an opinion in the market. We never made a reversal off the high, or we would be seeing more pressure I believe. The dollar has sold off…the statement is being viewed as not hawkish enough…

    It is always best to AVOID Fed days unless you are a pro…IMO… it can be far too difficult….

  9. Tom@StockBlade.com on April 30th, 2008 3:55 pm

    Hmmmm….It still looks like 1384.25 is key….I think if we can push through that into the close here, it would likely spell big trouble

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