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Charts Do Not Matter: IBM Selling Off Just Under $124.50 Was A Coincidence

July 15, 2008 12:54 AM

dontstressfluffyduck.jpgCharts do not matter, at all. I just take a wild guess and see what happens. Uhhh not.

IBM needed to clear $124.50 to even consider being long the stock in that area. Today’s high? $124.25. That’s a shock, like not at all. The problem is with IBM is there is a battle between $116.60 and $124.50 right now. This could ultimately break either way, but will likely take earnings to do it - one way or another.

Have i ever mentioned to NOT be the Lone Ranger in the market’s before? Uhh, like 348 times, at least. Why on earth would anyone buy IBM a $124.25 when it has to clear $124.50 to even have a snowball’s chance of being long? I don’t get it. Then again, I did not understand, as i mentioned, why anyone would buy RIMM at $122 when the long position was no longer supported. But they did it - two days in a row in fact. There must be far more Cramer listeners than even I had imagined.

Even if they opened the stock above $124.50 it would have been MUCH more believable if they opened it lower and THEN took it out. That would have been an indication of strength, IMO.

07/15 Update: If you notice, IBM hit EXACTLY $124.50 today. Normally i would say long if it clears. The problem is i believe we would need to hold above that for several days to convince the “moving average” believers that this is real. I cannot say long, even if it clears, but shorting it if it clears would not be wise either, to say the least as shorts may cover.

Two problems here: Moving Averages AND the overall market. I have zero belief on any level we have seen the lows.

07/16 Update: As expected $124.50 cleared after some weakness, and skyrocketed late. I figured this was almost a given. My comments were on whether this can hold. If IBM can stay above $125 for several more days, we may have a better handle on the long lasting strength of this move. I am not a “huge” sma believer, in general, but it is best to know what is going on with them to get more people on board with the move. We have two key points to be long IBM and zero points to be short. Key long prices are $116.60 and $119.90.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under IBM 

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