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Another Winning Call - Long CHK Today

March 24, 2008 9:36 PM

I mentioned last night to look to be long CHK today. Was an easy $1.00. Be far more careful tomorrow…..a checkdown is possible depending on where it opens…AND I do not like it up near $48… I also mentioned AGAIN pre-open the trade was long today…. I personally would have exited near $45.50 today as it was having an issue with an SMA that I watch on some stocks….and it couldn’t clear it all day…

If it clears todays high tomorrow….and even sniffs the opening price later in the day….EXIT if you happen to be long the stock…IMO. If it doesn’t close below the open, then the trade is still long….but be VERY careful up near $48….IMO.

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5 Trade Calls in Two weeks. Results? Up 22.8%. And All were at ALL time highs….

March 21, 2008 4:02 PM

I made 5 trade calls in the last two weeks. Here is a summary of them. I used “probable” points of entry and exit as many of them I just said to get short as high as possible…. For profit calculation, I am going to assume you did not short the highs but simply shorted the open or near where I said. For instance, on March 17th you could have shorted CHK far higher…

March 10th:

AEM: Short it. Profit 2.3% in one day.

 March 17th:

WLT: Short it. Profit 4.29% in one day

JOYG: Short it. Profit 3.31% in one day.

CHK: Short it. Profit 4.18% in one day.

March 19th:

CHK: Short it again. Profit 8.8% in 2 days.

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Commodity Based Stocks…

March 19, 2008 9:16 PM

I said last night that commodities looked like they were going to roll over here. They all got BLASTED today. I said roll over…they rolled over and died. But it is a worldwide commodity bubble, IMO, so the plunge didn’t surprise me. That led to the market slide today. The only thing that has held this market up….the only real market strength has been commodity based stocks…oil, gas, corn, etc.

That was another reason I said to get short CHK. I was simply waiting for the chart to confirm the entry point to short it (again) and this morning was it…

Cramer was jumping on the table earlier this week saying gold was going to $1600 and to buy gold stocks, etc. Long term, who knows….but I do not trade hype or hope.. (my theme song, if you have not noticed)… All I know is AEM is down 20% plus in two days and his lemmings are getting CRUSHED on that trade….. My earlier posts said to avoid it and wait for another chance to get short…. 20% in two days? That is a bad decade let alone 2 days…

I watch the market to see what is really going on….you can watch tv if you wish…

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CHK: Call to short it this morning at $47.50…

March 19, 2008 8:03 PM

Just after the open I posted to short CHK at $47.50 and said it should not clear $48……hmmm down a mere $3.70 ( 7.7% )…. I have mentioned since friday night that the trade on this stock was to wait for a chance to get short (again). I saw that chance this morning…. I also said to short on Monday for a 4% gain. Today was a little easier.

I also mentioned that if it stayed low that the pressure should be on later…BINGO. I smelled at least $44 on this stock sooner rather than later…but didn’t expect it today…ha.

Cramer’s roaring bull call on CHK Friday is beginning to grill…but is only medium rare thus far. I think the bull should be cooked to at least medium well…

If it gaps down tomorrow…look for any sign of going positive into the close. If it can get positive after a spike lower, you may want to take 50% off the board. If it opens higher, it is simply another chance to put another hammer to it…or should I say…BLADE

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CHK - There was $1.20

March 19, 2008 2:32 PM

There was a dollar plus on my short call on CHK at $47.50. I still believe we will see $44 at least in the coming days…. You could cover here at $46.30 - $46.50 and then short it again at about $47.00…if it gets there…but thats what I see… :o) It really depends on whether taking a swing or intraday trade… I am not a huge fan of holding positions overnight as I would rather see the open to be sure….but that’s me… But any and all strength should be shorted here…IMO.

$44 is in the this stocks future..or lower…IMO…. The only reason i thought maybe cover and short higher is that I thought the market would try and reverse near 1325 on the futures….possible it could lift CHK as well…

Update: at 11:50 EST It refuses to go up…the bounce after my post only got to about $46.85. Volume seems reasonably low thus far…

Again…if a swing trader…I smell $44 or lower… in the coming …days…so you would probably hold this $47.50 short until there is a reason to cover…

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CHK - Still an Avoid and/or Short

March 18, 2008 8:17 PM

I am still very negative on Chesapeake Energy here. It also looks like some commodities are rolling over certainly nat gas.

I said last night that I expected traders to short natural gas around $10 today. The high today was $10.085 and it closed at $9.10. Obviously it got crushed. I am not a “professional” trader, and have never traded commodities….but it seemed reasonably obvious what was likely to happen to nat gas today.

Nothing has changed on CHK. It is a short under $49.87 with a hard stop above that, IMO.

I still believe, obviously, that Cramers roaring bull call on CHK is going to be grilled to at least medium well…

The only way this thing is going higher here is if a massive continued rally lifts this sinking ship…which is always possible.

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Profit Protection - Exit Points

March 17, 2008 9:41 PM

Even if you do not short stocks or an active trader you should have an exit plan on a stock. Last I checked no stock in history has gone up forever, and many, if not most, eventually get crushed.

My profit protection calls were to exit VLO if it cleared $47.66. It crossed it early and immediately shot down to a low of $44.94. It closed at $46.69.

CHK:…down over 4% on the day from my call to consider selling and/or short.

WLT: Walter Industries was also down over 4% today. Said friday to consider exiting or shorting it.

JoyG: Down 3.31% today. Mentioned Friday to consider exiting or short it.

I also told friends that KLAC was long UNLESS $39.86 cleared, then exit. You could have exited that stock at $39.85 on 03/12. it is currently $35.62. Down 12% below where i said sell it in a matter of 4 trading days.

All 5 stocks COULD reverse, and go higher. But as I have said many times, I am not a believer in hope on a stock or the markets…. I let the markets tell me what to do…. If i have no firm number to trade off….I let others take that stock and look for another where I have more certainty.

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Winning Trades - WLT, CHK, and JoyG

March 17, 2008 9:18 PM

I had 3 stocks that I said were shorts and or sell from this weekend, Chesapeake, Walter Industries and Joy Global. All three were winners. Even if you simply sold the open on all 3, you were up 4.18%, 4.29%, and 3.31%.

Considering the Dow was up and the SP only down slightly, 4% in a day is nothing to sneeze at. If you would have sold bounces, you would have made more than that…but im simply using the % down for the day…

Ohh and all three were at ALL time highs on Friday….. :o)

Some may think that it was solely because of the market, but the Dow finished positive while both of these stocks got punished.

WLT - down $2.51 (4.29% ) off a high of $59.04. I said to get short this stock in the $60 area AND the low was $53.73. The high was made pretty early…so over $5 profit was possible on this trade today…. 8%.

If i were in this trade today, short term charts would have told me to cover it around $55….although it still looks weak here.

CHK: Also made the high early $47.20 and fell to a low of $45.19. Short term charts suggested to cover the trade around $45.50 if you were taking this as an intraday trade. Down 4.19% for the day.

I will look at the charts again and see if there is another short coming on these and where the number is….but both look lower right now…

I also mentioned that Cramer said long CHK on Friday…I said short it on Friday…. oddly enough…I was right, he was wrong. …so far anyhow. I was a little more cautious on CHK than WLT because I thought his lemmings might blindly buy it today and artificially push it higher…

But i wanted a clear head to head trade against him and was waiting to take him on…on a stock that was blowing and going….. and everyone alive said BUY, BUY, BUY…..I said SHORT it.

That was straight up…head to head…same day calls…on a stock at all time highs. That is what I wanted. My readers are cashing a check and his listeners are writing it.

It isn’t me…I just suggest doing what the market “might” be saying…….

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Winning/Losing Trade Calls

March 11, 2008 11:30 PM

I will keep a tab on my winning or losing (gasp) trading calls to give readers a better idea who is better, The Buss, Jim Cramer or Leonard the Monkey (who supposedly beats Cramer). I also just added that question to a poll on the bottom as well, lol.

Thus far, I have made 1 trading call, to short AEM if it cleared $71.93. I also said to cover the trade in the afternoon near the low. Profit $1.70 about 2.3%. You could have shorted it Monday far higher and made more, but lets use worse case profit here to leave no doubts.

This doesn’t count my intraday market calls, which I could keep track of, but probably won’t, of intraday calls on the general market. Like todays warning of not buying the open and then to go long later in the day….etc. etc.

I will put tabs on these posts that are Winning Trades and another for Losing Trades so they can be easily accessed in the archive. Also, if the times seem off on some of my posts, I go back and edit them sometimes so i do not appear like a moron as I am trying to type and watch the market and trade all at the same time and sometimes my grammar and/or typing is…well….a little off, lol.

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AEM: There was the "free" dollar

March 10, 2008 2:29 PM

As I said any break of $71.93 would be a free dollar or more. It opened at $71.89 moved slightly higher then spiked lower, and so far has hit a low of $70.15…. That was a free $1.70 (2.3% )in about 5 mins…

Update: it hit a high of $72.68. I was going to post that that area should be a short…but too late it is already falling again… Note: if it closes positive today it could challenge $75.25 tomorrow…but the trade today and possibly far longer…was short…

Update: There is a short term reversal at $75.06. I would cover near that area for today…primarily because i don’t think we will clear the Jan low today…just doesn’t feel like it…yet…

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