Stock Watch: IBM
July 22, 2008 12:01 AM
In “theory” if the market sells down, as is likely, IBM should reverse above either $119.90 or $116.60. There has never been a rejection of a high on this stock. I long ago mentioned that IBM was “likely” to eventually clear it’s high as it has never rejected a high. This is based on charts. Obviously, if they had warned the stock would be lower. News can and will destroy any chart. But they didn’t.
I am still VERY skeptical of the market here, to say the least. There should be an attempt to hold the line above the Dow low. If you believe the market will hold (I personally do not) then IBM should be long above those numbers. If the Dow low does not hold, then who knows. But IBM should fare better than most others if we do in fact clear the Dow low.
IBM: More Caution Tomorrow
July 8, 2008 11:19 PM
IBM was one of the 3 “trades” that I said long if you had to be long the market. It has done nicely as if you bought at the open yesterday you made $4 bucks. Not 90210 money, but that’s 3.5% in a tough market - in 2 days. That one trade alone put you ahead of almost all money managers for the YEAR- HA.
Tomorrow there needs to be more caution. If it clears $123.88 it HAS to close positive or there is possible trouble. So the easy money has been made on it, now you better know what you are doing. Leonard the Monkey could have traded it long the last 2 days. Going forward, Leonard could be in a bit of trouble. It will take a bit more brain power to ensure a profit here.
StockBlade Call To Sell UPS - Plunges Today
May 23, 2008 7:50 PM
Well our call to sell UPS has worked it’s magic - again. Down big today on huge volume. I mentioned that “I expected lower once $69.60 clears and that $68.36 is a MUST hold”. Once it pushed through $68.36 it plunged on big volume.
Never underestimate the power and significance of my numbers…. They allow you to not look like this on day end…
AEM Is Not Out Of The Woods By Any Stretch, Cramerica Sheep Take Another Beating
April 26, 2008 8:27 AM
How are the Cramerica Sheep liking his call to be long AEM AT THE HIGHS when I warned against it - repeatedly. AEM is STILL in trouble here. If it cannot take out the all time high, then testing the December 07 low of $45.55 is not impossible. That is the only key number to be long AEM above here. I have warned many, many times to avoid this stock. I feel bad for the guy that called in to Mad Money the day after AEM made it’s all time high, and Cramer’s advice was to “buy more”. That post is on here if you do a search of AEM. In that post I said buy more??? AEM is a SHORT …not a double down.
If you invest on what you “believe” is likely in the macro future, like Cramer’s call that gold is going to $1600, and ignore what the market is saying, you are gambling. it is that simple. AEM clearly was a short below it’s high and his advice to “buy more” is simple stupidity.
Stay Long Financials Here…But Avoid Area is Not Far Above…
April 17, 2008 10:51 PM
I would stay long my call on financials and XLF here. The avoid area is another 4%-5%. Once again, the the financial ETF XLF should be an avoid around $27.00 or slightly above that area. But we should trade higher before lower here…unless news dictates otherwise.
WLT: Opened Lower…I Warned It Was Too Early To Chase Down Or To Be Aggressive Short…But the Close Did Surprise Me…
April 8, 2008 7:07 PM
It looks like WLT is an avoid here on both sides of the trade since it closed positive. You could short it under $72.98 somewhere and see if it clears. The market maker was ahead of the curve and opened the stock low….they knew the shorts were likely to pounce if they they opened it at $69-$70. So they opened it low enough to take the easy short money out of the game at the open. I would need to watch tomorrow’s action and see where it is to be sure here. But anything near $72 is an avoid long here, IMO. The risk/reward long there would be very poor - at best. it looks to me it would need to stay below $70 for an extended period to maybe spell a little trouble…. Like i said yesterday…it “looked” a little early to get aggressive short AND I didn’t think the market would sell off BIG…. It just doesn’t “feel” like it wants to here….
Anyhow…we will chalk today up as a smart market maker…He knew trouble was brewing, just as I said…. You could have made a $1 or $2 today is shorted at either $69 or $70 as it fell off those highs to about $68 later…better than nothing, bu not what i was looking for here…. I will look at it again tomorrow and see where we are… But the bias is still avoid long, and look to short it….but the chart still looks early to take it down here…
At least my call to be very careful long AAPL near $160 is working dollars instead of pennies….down another $3.00 plus today… to close at $152.84…. .Thats $7.00 to the good on my warning to avoid $160.00 area…
Trade Call:Sell If Long/And/Or Short WLT at $69-$70
April 7, 2008 7:25 PM
I would sell Walter Industries right here if I was long the stock. $70 would be a gift short I believe with a hard stop above $$72.98 if short… This stock appears very extended anyhow, and $59-$60 is in the cards, it appears…Unless the market moves aggresively higher tomorrow, I do not think WLT will make it above $69.00…it appears a little early in the chart to get aggressive short here…but trouble is brewing on WLT…..I have been patiently waiting for this stock to peak….as it is extended….
If long WLT i would exit on ANY strenth here. If looking to short…look for strength under $72.98. I wouldn’t go crazy on it as the overall market still “feels” sideways until we see the earnings from financials. But long this stock here is far less than wise….
Note: it would need to clear $66.60 to confirm my opinion to short it here….and if the market appears vulnerable, and you want to get ahead of the curve…..this is the call.
Keep an Eye on CHK
March 24, 2008 1:39 PM
CHK needs to hold $42.15. If you can get long in the $43 range, you could trade it long on a risk reward trade here…. My exit point on anyhing long is below $42.15…. If it clears $44.37 it should pop up, at least temporariliy……I would rather buy cheaper here if possible…but unless the market slides overall…it looks like CHK won’t approach $43 today….maybe not even $43.50… I mentioned yesterday the trade on CHK was long today….
April 6, 2008 Update: It looks like $45.25 is near term key. If it can hold that here, it could make another run at $48 or so. If it cannot hold that, then another run at $42.15 appears likely. Natural gas price is probably key and it made a reversal off the high and then a run at the high failed. Therefore, the chart on nat gas looks shaky right now, at best. It looks like nat gas will make a run at $9.00 before $10.00, but that is what I see today…To convince me otherwise, I would need to see it get in the $9.75 range and hold for a few days.
Monsanto - Long Term High Appears To Have Been Reached
March 22, 2008 10:57 PM
I have warned against being long MON for quite some time. The short/get out point was up near $120, as I mentioned several times. I am not sure if it is going to plunge here or not, but it is certainly a possibility. The new reference point to be short appears to be $113.71. If it gets in that range again, expect selling pressure and or shorts.
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