Still Zero Bad Picks….We Aren’t Perfect, There Will Be Pick’s That Do Not Go Our Way
April 10, 2008 11:24 PM
We still have not made a bad choice where an actual loss occured after 3 days from our entry. However, we base everything on what we consider probability, not certainty. Probability implies that not all will go your way, but more will than not. I just wanted to be clear that just because we have been correct each time for two months that we are not perfect and this is not a system. It is taking advantage of probability as we see it… We did hit the overall market EXACTLY today however….literally…
Some of our choices have been better than others. Shorting WLT 3 days ago was probably the worst pick thus far, only down a couple of dollars from the entry target. Not bad, 2%-3% or so in a few days, but not what I was hoping for. But we also mentioned that the market was very likely to be flat this week, and it has been. So the 7% or 8% moves we have become accustomed to have dwindled and expectations of that sort in this market aren’t realistic. But stay tuned, volatility will be back……
Also, many of our trading opinions are not posted in stats. When we do not make an official call, but say “caution Goldman above $180 here” or “avoid AAPL near $160″, etc….although we were correct on both, and would have saved someone 5%-7% just on that cautionary note in a few days time, it wasn’t a trading call and doesn’t show up on the stats. But not making bad decisions is at least as important as making good ones… I am not concerned about making calls to show up in our “stats” to prove we are the best. I want to provide valuable insight to our readers. They will know.
Losing trades - None yet
March 18, 2008 1:10 AM
I just wanted to create a category for Losing Trades, so making this post. I will eventually have a losing trade, obviously. But I do give EXACT exit points in my style of trading…..it limits loss and eliminates guessing….and hope.
-
Recent Commentary
- Market Recap: Called Today’s Action On The Money Almost Literally
- Market Update: My Note On Caution at 1285 Has Proved Correct Thus Far
- Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real Strength
- Morning Call: Futures Move Higher On Durable Goods
- FDIC Report: 117 Financial Institutions In Trouble, One Big Problem, I Do Not Believe It
- Consumer Confidence Up? This Is Clearly An Indictment On Public Education
- Market Direction: While The Chart Still Says Long….
- Market Recap: 1261 Held once Again
- Market Update: Market Was Bought Early, 3:00 EST Is Likely Key
- Market Open: 1263.25 Early Low
- Morning Call: Futures Flat, New Home Sales At 10:00, FOMC Minutes Late
- Market Recap: My Gap Rule Ruled The Day
- Market Update: 1261 Should Hold - If Not We May See Panic
- Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important
- Morning Call: Decision Time
- Market Update: Typical Trend Day Higher Early As Predicted, Now The Outcome Is Clearly In Doubt
- Market Open: Watch The Gap Reaction
- Morning Call: Futures Up, Long All CheckDowns Early Should Be Play
Our Mascot Trading Goal: Ferrari 599
