Stock Watch: IBM
July 22, 2008 12:01 AM
In “theory” if the market sells down, as is likely, IBM should reverse above either $119.90 or $116.60. There has never been a rejection of a high on this stock. I long ago mentioned that IBM was “likely” to eventually clear it’s high as it has never rejected a high. This is based on charts. Obviously, if they had warned the stock would be lower. News can and will destroy any chart. But they didn’t.
I am still VERY skeptical of the market here, to say the least. There should be an attempt to hold the line above the Dow low. If you believe the market will hold (I personally do not) then IBM should be long above those numbers. If the Dow low does not hold, then who knows. But IBM should fare better than most others if we do in fact clear the Dow low.
IBM: More Caution Tomorrow
July 8, 2008 11:19 PM
IBM was one of the 3 “trades” that I said long if you had to be long the market. It has done nicely as if you bought at the open yesterday you made $4 bucks. Not 90210 money, but that’s 3.5% in a tough market - in 2 days. That one trade alone put you ahead of almost all money managers for the YEAR- HA.
Tomorrow there needs to be more caution. If it clears $123.88 it HAS to close positive or there is possible trouble. So the easy money has been made on it, now you better know what you are doing. Leonard the Monkey could have traded it long the last 2 days. Going forward, Leonard could be in a bit of trouble. It will take a bit more brain power to ensure a profit here.
StockBlade Call To Sell UPS - Plunges Today
May 23, 2008 7:50 PM
Well our call to sell UPS has worked it’s magic - again. Down big today on huge volume. I mentioned that “I expected lower once $69.60 clears and that $68.36 is a MUST hold”. Once it pushed through $68.36 it plunged on big volume.
Never underestimate the power and significance of my numbers…. They allow you to not look like this on day end…
On April 24th: “UPS: Sell Here, $74 Is A Short”
May 10, 2008 10:08 AM
We posted on April 24th to sell UPS and if it went to $74 it would be a short. On May 2nd, it went to a high of $74.14. Currently, it is $70.29 and likely headed lower.
(Update: We also posted to cover that short at about $70.00 on 05/12, but I still believe lower is likely once $69.60 clears. $68.36 is must hold)
AEM Is Not Out Of The Woods By Any Stretch, Cramerica Sheep Take Another Beating
April 26, 2008 8:27 AM
How are the Cramerica Sheep liking his call to be long AEM AT THE HIGHS when I warned against it - repeatedly. AEM is STILL in trouble here. If it cannot take out the all time high, then testing the December 07 low of $45.55 is not impossible. That is the only key number to be long AEM above here. I have warned many, many times to avoid this stock. I feel bad for the guy that called in to Mad Money the day after AEM made it’s all time high, and Cramer’s advice was to “buy more”. That post is on here if you do a search of AEM. In that post I said buy more??? AEM is a SHORT …not a double down.
If you invest on what you “believe” is likely in the macro future, like Cramer’s call that gold is going to $1600, and ignore what the market is saying, you are gambling. it is that simple. AEM clearly was a short below it’s high and his advice to “buy more” is simple stupidity.
CHK: Buy Further Weakness
April 24, 2008 10:46 PM
If Chesapeake Energy (CHK) trades much lower, weakness should be bought, IMO. $48.60 should try and hold here. if we clear $48.60, it could spike lower. I do not think that would be a reason to panic as $48.60 is not a “must hold”. If we have seen the highs in CHK, and I do not think we have here….they should be at least retested.
04/25 Update: CHK soared Friday…up 5.6% while the SP was up a meager .65%.
Stay Long Financials Here…But Avoid Area is Not Far Above…
April 17, 2008 10:51 PM
I would stay long my call on financials and XLF here. The avoid area is another 4%-5%. Once again, the the financial ETF XLF should be an avoid around $27.00 or slightly above that area. But we should trade higher before lower here…unless news dictates otherwise.
Today’s Call: Long The Market, Long Financials, Long XLF, Unlike Yesterday….Long If Gap “Fades”
April 16, 2008 8:59 AM
The market is likely to be bought today. It appears that any and all checkdowns, especiallyy early should be bought. Pick your favorite stock and be long if market checks down early today. Mid 1330’s should be bought on checkdowns on the futures here, but i don’t think we are going that low. I am long pre-open at 1345.50. I would rather be long lower here….but have to take what I see. Housing data was brutal again, but people are ignoring it. They think it’s a bottoming “process” in housing. There are 100% completely wrong…but who cares…for today.
The only way caution would be in order here today is if we had a late counter trend trade and threatened to close below the open….that would spell possible trouble for tomorrow…but I see nothing up top here to stop any rally… There could be an issue near 1352 from the previous gap down….and that is a reversal point…very careful there on the futures unless that clears late…I would rather not chase…. If the gap “FADES” today, the fill should be bought….IMO
Still Zero Bad Picks….We Aren’t Perfect, There Will Be Pick’s That Do Not Go Our Way
April 10, 2008 11:24 PM
We still have not made a bad choice where an actual loss occured after 3 days from our entry. However, we base everything on what we consider probability, not certainty. Probability implies that not all will go your way, but more will than not. I just wanted to be clear that just because we have been correct each time for two months that we are not perfect and this is not a system. It is taking advantage of probability as we see it… We did hit the overall market EXACTLY today however….literally…
Some of our choices have been better than others. Shorting WLT 3 days ago was probably the worst pick thus far, only down a couple of dollars from the entry target. Not bad, 2%-3% or so in a few days, but not what I was hoping for. But we also mentioned that the market was very likely to be flat this week, and it has been. So the 7% or 8% moves we have become accustomed to have dwindled and expectations of that sort in this market aren’t realistic. But stay tuned, volatility will be back……
Also, many of our trading opinions are not posted in stats. When we do not make an official call, but say “caution Goldman above $180 here” or “avoid AAPL near $160″, etc….although we were correct on both, and would have saved someone 5%-7% just on that cautionary note in a few days time, it wasn’t a trading call and doesn’t show up on the stats. But not making bad decisions is at least as important as making good ones… I am not concerned about making calls to show up in our “stats” to prove we are the best. I want to provide valuable insight to our readers. They will know.
WLT: Opened Lower…I Warned It Was Too Early To Chase Down Or To Be Aggressive Short…But the Close Did Surprise Me…
April 8, 2008 7:07 PM
It looks like WLT is an avoid here on both sides of the trade since it closed positive. You could short it under $72.98 somewhere and see if it clears. The market maker was ahead of the curve and opened the stock low….they knew the shorts were likely to pounce if they they opened it at $69-$70. So they opened it low enough to take the easy short money out of the game at the open. I would need to watch tomorrow’s action and see where it is to be sure here. But anything near $72 is an avoid long here, IMO. The risk/reward long there would be very poor - at best. it looks to me it would need to stay below $70 for an extended period to maybe spell a little trouble…. Like i said yesterday…it “looked” a little early to get aggressive short AND I didn’t think the market would sell off BIG…. It just doesn’t “feel” like it wants to here….
Anyhow…we will chalk today up as a smart market maker…He knew trouble was brewing, just as I said…. You could have made a $1 or $2 today is shorted at either $69 or $70 as it fell off those highs to about $68 later…better than nothing, bu not what i was looking for here…. I will look at it again tomorrow and see where we are… But the bias is still avoid long, and look to short it….but the chart still looks early to take it down here…
At least my call to be very careful long AAPL near $160 is working dollars instead of pennies….down another $3.00 plus today… to close at $152.84…. .Thats $7.00 to the good on my warning to avoid $160.00 area…
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