Browse > Home / Archive by category 'Stock Comments / XOM'

XOM: Value Trap

August 14, 2008 5:54 PM

Exxon has been trading sideways now for almost 2 weeks. My philosophy on this type of action is the trend is likely to continue. Some commodity type stocks did make firm reversals and took off, like MON, etc., but the action on XOM strongly suggests another push down. It is an avoid as I see things. I know the PE is exceptionally compelling and all value traps have that same thing going for them. But the dividend is only 2%, sentiment on oil is obviously negative, etc. I just do not like it here.

The short was way up at the high. Do you see why this should be a pay site? I would have seen that if i was spending 10 hours a day on this instead of working. It made a “CHK” type of a rejection off the high and down she goes. Speaking of CHK, it held my “must hold” point of $42.15 by a nickel on 08/11 and up $4 off that. Not a bad risk/reward trade. Lose a nickel or make $4. Opps, charts do not matter, my bad.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment 

Exxon: Has To Hold $85 And Clear $90.50

June 19, 2008 12:31 AM

confusedgraph.jpgIf you notice, XOM has traded sideways recently. The reason is it has to hold $85 or clear $90.50 to the upside and it is sitting here. There was a very clear “rejection” at $96.12 and it plunged off that high. I do not have any more insight thanthe market here. It is going to trade sideways until one of those numbers clears. Even if $90.50 clears, it will have to contend with $96.12, so the upside appears very limited for now.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment 

XOM: Exxon In A Range

June 9, 2008 10:41 PM

XOM should trade between $85 and $96.12 until one of them clears. The $85 low was somewhat predictable as I mentioned it had to clear $82.75 to cause real problems and could hold $84.26. It is difficult to understand the energy trade right now. Even with oil making fresh record highs, they have been pulling back. My guess is that long term investors are getting nervous of two possibilities: major backlash and long term damage.

Long term, there is no worse possible price of oil than higher for Exxon or any major oil. It brings into play a major push of alternative technologies that are no longer a “Green Dream”. They have economic viability. This will cause long term damage to these stocks. The Middle East is making a huge mistake by allowing prices to be at these levels.

The second problem is the possibility of both a political and economic backlash. If oil stays at these levels there could be some political unrest and people demanding action. In addition, it dramatically increases the odds of a severe recession which would lower demand.

This is a difficult trade here. The trade was long above the numbers indicated before, and that has proved correct. From here it becomes far more dicey and I would simply avoid it, IMO.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under XOM | 1 Comment 

$84 Area Should Be Floor On XOM

May 9, 2008 10:44 PM

I haven’t commented on Exxon lately because there really has not been much to say. The gap has never filled, so I am far less than enthusiastic about the stock. If the market pushes through 1383 next week, which appears possible, and XOM spikes lower along with the market, it will tryand hold the $84 area. The gap down as never filled, so I am NOT a fan here. Wait for a spike lower to be long XOM, IMO.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment 

XOM: Finally Cleared $90

April 16, 2008 12:21 AM

I have warned to avoid XOM near $90 many, nay times, each proving correct. It finally pushed through it with some force today. Chasing it would be late in the game as i said long XOM above $77.55 and it made a recent low of $82.75. That really was really where to be long. it has to clear the high here to be long up here….I am still not a fan, but it is likely to go higher before lower….but $95.27 is still an issue here…

 All commodity stocks, especially energy were very strong with oil setting yet another record. Oil WILL eventually reverse, just not sure when or how high. To trade all of these stocks you almost have to watch the dollar. All of these commodities and hence the stocks, are inverse dollar plays, for the most part. So it makes it a little more complicated than just looking at the stock….

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment 

Stock Updates: XOM, AEM, XLF, CHK, AAPL, JOYG, GS, GOOG

April 3, 2008 4:51 PM

Most stocks are set up to break either way consistent with the overall market.

CHK is long above $42.15, nothing has changed. I said over a week ago it would have an issue near $48, and it has, and also said it wa likely to trade between $43-48 for quite some time, and it has. It has been in about a $2.00 trading range for 8 trading days. My bias is still long above $42.15 and caution near $48. Same story, different day.

XOM: Exxon took out a couple of key levels, but it has has issues inthe $90 area, repeatedly and I am not a fan of it up here. There is no hard number to be leary of except the all time high however.

AEM: This stock will be sold the second the trend breaks or gold falls off. This stock is a little more difficult to predict as it is traded as a “proxy” for gold prices, which in turn trades inversely to the dollar. This is a short waiting to happen up top however….so better have a quick break pedal if you are long this…

XLF: Not a fan of the financials up here unless we clearly take out the $27.50 range…too many brokers/banks have key points up in that range, and is why i said sell XLF yesterday at $27.10. It dropped a quick buck off that early today.

AAPL: Apple technically is all clear once we took out $151.20. There is caution up here though as I mentioned. Plenty of people that have been long Apple for 4 months…and sweating bullets every day would love to escape even. i also think people are far too optimistic on the Iphone as a competing product against RIMM. It isn’t even in the same class. The IPhone competes against personal use phones - not business - and RIMM is coming out with a touchscreen soon…. But the chart still says long….but have a quick exit if trouble…

JOYG: JOYG is an avoid up near $70.00, IMO. It has to clear $72.00 to be long in that area.

GS: I mentioned to be very careful Goldman above $180 the other day….and it backed off $182 range yesterday and slid all the way to a low of $172.88 today. It has to clear $184.52…and even then I am not a huge fan as it will have more issues near $200.

GOOG: Goog was an easy short today. it had to clear $475.74 to be long. Going forward, if it clears $432.01 there will be additional pressure put on. I said the other day I am simply not a fan of GOOG and expected it to reverse. Bingo.

Written by · Filed Under AAPL, AEM, CHK, GOOG, GS, JOYG, XLF, XOM | Leave a Comment 

Dollar Bottom? Careful Long ALL Commodity Based Stocks

April 1, 2008 6:40 AM

The dollar may have put in a near term bottom yesterday and caution on all commodity based stocks here, IMO. Commodities have been an inverse dollar trade, not fundamental based. Any strength in the dollar should pressure commodities off their bubble highs.

Written by · Filed Under AEM, DE, MON, XOM | Leave a Comment 

StockBlade’s Numbers for CHK, AEM, JOYG, VLO, DE, XLF, GOOG, EK, AAPL, XRT

March 28, 2008 8:35 PM

Our numbers to be long or short/avoid long each stock were just updated. See Current SB Numbers on the main menu for the chart.

Written by · Filed Under AAPL, AEM, CHK, DE, EK, GOOG, JOYG, VLO, XLF, XOM | Leave a Comment 

XOM: Exxon Revisted

March 25, 2008 1:02 PM

As my readers know, I am not a fan of XOM in the $90 range. I have correctly warned to avoid that area on at least 4 or 5 occasions. The trade was to go long XOM above $77.55. Unfortunately, it only made a recent low of $82.75.

XOM looks like an avoid here on both sides unless scalping. It does not appear to be a short here, and I certainly wouldn’t chase it up near $88 either. Sideways appears likely here….

I am also not a fan of the commodity space, as I have mentioned, and believe traders are are rotating out of that sector and strength is likely to be a bounce to be sold in that sector.

Written by · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment 

XOM

March 18, 2008 1:20 AM

I am still not a fan of Exxon here. It could challenge the $90 range again…maybe. Todays low could be big going foward…I just see no trade here that I am certain of…If I am not reasonably certain with a firm number, my choice is always to simply avoid it.

It is similar to Walmart. I posted before I simply have no opinion on either side on WMT and therefore, I avoid it.

Written by · Filed Under XOM | Leave a Comment