XLF And Financials: Very Skeptical Long Term, But A Major Short Covering Rally Is Possible Here
April 26, 2008 8:04 AM
XLF and the market in general appears poised to possibly make a gap higher here. $27.17 is a key number on XLF and it is nearing it and it may take it out Monday or soon. If it takes it out and does not immediately reverse, then it appears that we could explode to the upside here. There really is nothing to stop the SP from moving higher here. (other than economic reality, that is, but let’s not let facts get in the way of making money)…..
Goldman cleared a key number on Thursday as I mentioned, and has led to the recent spike. I do believe GS will likely reverse near $200 however, so careful on this euphoria. If we get much over $27.17 and do not reverse, and certainly if we clear $27.37 on XLF, it appears that it could make a run to $30.00 on a major short covering push. There is MASSIVE short intererest in XLF and financials (for good reason) ….IF they ever begin to cover, it will make a major one day push.
XLF And Financials
April 24, 2008 10:52 PM
I am not sure why such strength in financials. I am still very skeptical of the group. GS did finally clear an important high today and caused a spike in it however. it took 2 months to clear it, but it finally did today. I shouldn’t get too much into the macro environment as the reality is near term - it simply isn’t relevant, the market’s can be dead wrong for a long time. Today’s strength did very much surprise me, both in financials and the general market. There was no clear cut direction for today, so I simply was not certain, and said so… Per usual, I would rather let other’s “guess”.
XLF: Call To Be Out …Good So Far
April 23, 2008 10:21 PM
I warned last week that the “avoid” area on financials was not far above and anything near $27.00 on XLF was likely an avoid or exit long. It reversed off the high made last Friday and has been sliding since. There are 2 numbers that need to hold here….$24.37 and $22.29. Look to be long above those areas and see if they hold. Therefore, sideways between the $27.00-$27.50 area and the $22.29 and $24.37 area seems very likely until we get news to break it out one side or the other.
If Still Long Financials and XLF From Our Call On the 16th….Should Have Been Mostly Out Friday At The Close
April 21, 2008 9:28 AM
I mentioned the night of the 17th that the trouble area was not far above on financials and XLF…and you should have been looking to take some off on Friday. There was no firm sign to sell until midday…but you should have been looking to scale down anyhow….as I warned that financials were nearing an avoid area….
AVOID Citigroup…As I Mentioned Early On Friday
April 21, 2008 8:36 AM
I mentioned early on Friday to sell C and if you wanted to be long financials, swap it out with XLF, and that the rally in C was complete nonsense. It proceeded to fall below it’s open the rest of the day. But you shouldn’t be adding to new positions here on XLF, you would be chasing, IMO. The trade was to be long in the high $24’s as I said pre-open on the 16th. If anything, you should be looking to take some off the table here.
If a trader, you could look to short the stock under $26.00 with a hard stop there…but not a huge fan of shorting a gap higher…but that is the only trade to be made on C here.
Another 8%-9% In 3 Days On Our Call To Be Long Financials
April 19, 2008 12:30 AM
Ok, the week ended strong. Another 8%-9% on our call to be long financials and the ETF XLF. We are still 100% on our calls. I would have to do the math, but guessing that our calls would have returned 30%-40% in 1.5 months. That doesn’t even count our indirect calls to “avoid” this stock here….etc….so far higher in reality. These are JUST the specific calls. We are printing money for our readers faster than “helicopter Ben” is printing the peso…errr…dollar. Not to downplay the “long term’ investors, but this is why i see zero point in a “long term” view, as I have mentioned. Our calls are up more than the entire return for 10 years on the SP 500….TODAY alone. I fail to see the importance or relevance of a long term view. Last time i checked, there is one reason, and one reason only to be be interested in the stock market, and that is MONEY.
We posted our call plain as day for EVERYONE alive to see pre-market 04/16. If we were wrong, we would look rather stupid. Point being, this isn’t the “Monday morning Quarterbacking” that Fast Money and other sites do. If we were wrong, we were wrong, period, and everyone would know it. But once again - we weren’t.
Like I have mentioned many times, we WILL be wrong…eventually. Probability makes being wrong once in a while a certainty. I am just getting concerned that people may think we are NEVER wrong and take too much risk. Just because we have been right every time for 2 months straight….do not think we will always be right…that isn’t possible. You have to mitigate risk in relation to returns, and we do that with our SB numbers…
It is ok to say THANK YOU once in a while…ha.
Citigroup Rally Is Complete Nonsense
April 18, 2008 9:36 AM
If you want to be long financials, I would exit C here and swap it out with XLF. This rally in C is total and complete nonsense, IMO. Their problems are not even close to over, and there is substantial risk still in the stock. SP also placed them on credit watch right before the open.
Stay Long Financials Here…But Avoid Area is Not Far Above…
April 17, 2008 10:51 PM
I would stay long my call on financials and XLF here. The avoid area is another 4%-5%. Once again, the the financial ETF XLF should be an avoid around $27.00 or slightly above that area. But we should trade higher before lower here…unless news dictates otherwise.
Financials Are ALL Still An Avoid
April 11, 2008 9:17 AM
All financials are still an avoid. They are going lower. Best case is probably to make a reversal attempt next week. Making one today is very unlikely.
Today’s Low On Financials, AAPL etc. Is Important. For The Market, It Is Not Critical.
April 10, 2008 9:04 PM
On 04/02 I said to sell financials, specifically the financial ETF XLF, at $27.10. Today’s low of $25.32 is reasonably important. If that clears, then $24.41 would be next support and below that is March 17th low. There is still BIG caution above $27.00…That has not changed, and likely will not change until financials release earnings…do NOT be long up there for now…..
AAPL needs to hold today’s low. I am still convinced that anything long going into earnings on AAPL is gambling, pure and simple. The worst space to be in, in the WORLD is US consumer discretionary….which is what AAPL is mostly in. Sideways here until earnings seems likely…
For WLT, it appears that $65.90 is trying to hol here. If we can push through that here could be a little more pressure. The up market saved it a bit today. My call to sell it and buy cheaper off $69-$70 is still valid, but the profit i was looking for. Better than being wrong, but $1.00 - $3.00 to the good…isn’t worth me writing about.
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