VLO and TSO: Long

July 17, 2008 1:41 AM

Both TSO and VLO, both refiners made important lows yesterday. This is likely because I think their margins are adversely affected by increases in oil, but not certain. This appears to be an inverse oil trade. At any rate, VLO is long above $29.70 and TSo is long above $16.11, IMO. If today’s highs do not clear first, the trade should be to buy all checkdowns and press these both to the long side.

Update: analyst commented on the refiners said that both TSO and VLO are likely to post losses. I think this is because of oil, as mentioned. High oil apparently crushes their margins. I wouldn’t hold these into earnings, for certain.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under TSO, VLO | 2 Comments

A Peak At VLO Again

July 2, 2008 1:03 AM

I haven’t glanced at VLO in a while. One reason is the stock “bugs” me because it rises when the chart says the lows “shouldn’t” hold. I have never figured out why this is, but it is what it is.

Anyhow, I missed the trade on this one, sorry about that. it was a short below $55.00 IMO and made an effort in that area on June 3rd. That attempt was clearly rejected and was an easy short. My bad, I have not looked at the stock in probably 2 months. I am still not a fan of the low, on any level, but this thing has moved up repeatedly with no reason, so not sure. But one thing has proved correct: the moves up that I considered not “warranted” have all eventually failed and it has made new lows each time.

I do not care if this reverses and goes to $100. I want a new low to be long.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under VLO | Leave a Comment

VLO And Our “No Opinion” Revisited

May 11, 2008 9:02 PM

I had a lot of questions about VLO when it went to new lows in March because of the low PE and “value” nonsense. It went up off the lows and I said “no opinion”. Well, it just cleared the March low. I said “no opinion” as it never gave a strong reversal buy off the low, IMO. I look at things a certain way. If I do not see what I like, I have no opinion on it, and people are simply gambling and “trend trading” at that point. VLO was a short under $55.00, but I had not looked at it in a while. Sorry about that, but we had not made any call on VLO and we cannot watch every single stock. It is the same as GE. I have no opinion on it, other than careful, as it never gave a buy signal off the gap low. It can go to $100, I do not care. Let others guess.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under VLO | Leave a Comment

VLO Looks To Be Long Right Here…But Don’t Marry It (see update)

April 10, 2008 9:19 PM

As I have mentioned many times, I wanted no part of VLO whether it went to $40 or $100…and basically said best of luck with that. However, today’s low is very important. The trade looks to be long right here above $47.94. The only issue is it has to clear $53.20 to be long in that range. So, like the market, anything long here appears to be a scalp. But if you have been looking to be long VLO, today’s action should provide an entry point, and exit point…AND I am wrong point.

04/11 Update: I said to not go long on anything today before the market opened…….so this possibilility of being long VLO I mentioned last night was voided out….

Written by · Filed Under VLO | 2 Comments

StockBlade’s Numbers for CHK, AEM, JOYG, VLO, DE, XLF, GOOG, EK, AAPL, XRT

March 28, 2008 8:35 PM

Our numbers to be long or short/avoid long each stock were just updated. See Current SB Numbers on the main menu for the chart.

Written by · Filed Under AAPL, AEM, CHK, DE, EK, GOOG, JOYG, VLO, XLF, XOM | Leave a Comment

VLO and TSO revisited…

March 24, 2008 10:20 PM

If you recall, I posted that anyone long either VLO or TSO was guessing, IMO. And I do not believe in guessing - ever. They promptly spiked up on the 18th and 19th. One of my brothers even asked me…buy VLO??? I said…do what you wish…I listen to the charts and do not guess ….and they say do not chase here. I also mentioned how high will VLO go? Where is the low? I had no idea….so, I avoid.

Well, I did know that VLO had to clear $52.41 to be long in that area today…and buying near $52 and being the lone ranger was not a great idea.

I still have no opinion on either of these stocks until the market gives me firm numbers that I can trade off…. it is as simple as that. But I personally wouldn’t be long here.

Written by · Filed Under TSO, VLO | Leave a Comment

TSO and VLO are two examples…

March 20, 2008 12:48 AM

TSO and VLO are examples of hope and guessing. As my newsletter points out, I do not guess. My number on VLO was $47.65. Once that is violated, I exit until I see a new number. It did plunge $3 once that was cleared, so my number was correct. Where is the high on VLO now? More importantly, where is the low? I have no idea and neither does the market. Therefore, I consider it an avoid until further notice.

People long those two today were guessing and hoping. If VLO skyrockets and goes to $70, then they guessed right and great for them…but they were guessing.

My call to short CHK today was not guessing. My exit number is $49.88. Period. The only reason I said to short $47.50 and not higher was that I had strong reason to believe it would not clear $48 today and that was probably the highest price I could get to be short.

If you guess and hope, you will make market returns or far worse unless you are an exceptionally lucky person.

Written by · Filed Under General Investing/Trading Commentary, TSO, VLO | Leave a Comment