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UPS: A Complete House Of Cards

August 11, 2008 6:50 PM

I mentioned that my opinion was to short UPS a while back. While that trade “worked” for my 3 day window, it has since cleared that point to the upside. My opinion of this stock is AVOID long, to say the least. It has been rising 100% on falling oil and the chart strongly suggests it is a complete house of cards. Once this thing turns, it could get ugly. Leave it alone.

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UPS: Avoid And or Short

July 31, 2008 1:34 AM

run.jpgThe UPS house of cards run may be over. It is a short and or avoid long here, IMO, with a hard stop above $64.85. This stock is a bit more difficult to predict than many as it has been rising on falling oil, obviously. It has zero points to be long, as I see things, and a clear short point, so that is the only trade here. I am not only not happy with the low on UPS on any level, I am not happy with ANY point to be long. It is a short here, IMO.

07/31 Close Update: Once again UPS held steady on drop in oil. It needs to get under $62.20 to probably apply some pressure here.

08/04 Update: Small gain on the call but SMA’s and drops in oil are holding the stock it appears. I would not be long this stock, on any level however, it is a house of cards, as I see things.

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UPS: $59.30 Held

July 2, 2008 1:09 AM

I mentioned the other day that UPS was long above $59.30 (much to my dislike). It held today and reversed just above it. Today’s low was $59.50. You HAVE to make that trade if you believe that is the number. You risk 20 cents and could win huge. If that wasn’t your number, then that’s a different matter.  It went to a high of $61.00 today before closing at $60.50. Could have only made $1.00 to $1.50 on it today, but that’s better than a kick in the rear. If we test that area again, I am not as confident. I view the markets far differently than many as you may have noticed. Many people, if not most, view “tests” as a sign of strength in that number. I view it that the more it is tested, it tells me the market wants to clear it, not vice-versa. But that is how I “view the world”.

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UPS: Getting The Hammer As Warned

June 26, 2008 12:19 AM

I have long questioned the valuation of UPS. I also said to short it at $74.00. I have also questioned why would anyone buy it in a weak economy with soaring energy prices. I rarely comment on so called “fundamentals” but sometimes they are just to overwhelming to ignore. If I recall, I said something not long ago like “if you are long UPS you are a moron”. Well, maybe not exactly, but I certainly alluded to it. My call to short it at $74.00 was a “supply and demand” call (some people refer to this as charts)…but the rest of my commentary has been about valuation and fundamentals. I just saw ZERO reason to be long the stock.

Oddly enough, UPS set a 5 year low today. Boy, I could never have guessed that in a million years. Wait, I did guess that and have been harping on this issue repeatedly for 2 months.  It is $61.40 currently and I see no sign of a low.

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UPS: Didn’t Get Hammered….Why? $65.01

June 21, 2008 12:19 AM

confusedgraph.jpgUPS had to hold $64.01. It made a low of $65.01 on Wednesday. This was not surprising at all as there “should” have been buyers above $64.01. UPS was only down marginally today in a beating of a market. Why? Because people are not going to short it unless both $65.01 and $64.01 clear. Period.

 Opps, I forgot, the market is an “efficient mechanism” based on earnings and valuation, what am I thinking…..ha. if you believe that college nonsense, Santa should be giving you toys this winter. For the rest of us, the market has NOTHING to do with reality. It is trading paper, pure and simple.

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UPS Gaps Lower

June 19, 2008 12:45 AM

I have long harped on UPS to be apparently grossly overvalued and the fundamentals simply do not support the sector. With that said, it gapped lower today. If it is going to hold the low of $64.01 it needs to hold $65.01. Watch $66.44 i believe. If it cannot get on top of that, UPS stock is in big trouble. Boy I could never have guessed that. Wait a minute, I said over a month ago to sell it and short it at $74, nevermind…ha.

I like to comment on this stock as I smell blood. $64.01 is last gasp hope for the stock.

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UPS: Someone Wake Me At $30

June 17, 2008 11:40 PM

I asked a very simple question a month ago about UPS. Why is the stock trading with a 157 PE? Unless there is a one time charge that i am not aware of, which is possible, this stock should be $20 or less. I simply do not understand the valuation and maybe someone can enlighten me on this. A delivery company with a 157 PE…gas prices plunging profits….weak economy hurting deliveries….. That smells like long to me - NOT.

With that said, it has to clear $64.01 to really get some pressure going. I did call the recent short at $74, but that was a chart call, not valuation. I rarely ever will make a valuation call for two reasons. i have seen the market be wrong for years and there may be something I do not understand or know. But being long this stock is somewhere between dumb and dumber.

Please post if you know why this stock has such a rich valuation. i am curious as to why.

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Why Is UPS at $68?

June 6, 2008 10:53 PM

run.jpgIf you value your money, and I suspect most readers do, why would you buy UPS with 152 PE and oil at all time highs? Unless I am severely missing something very important, the stock is an avoid, a sell, a get out, a run for cover, an exit - take your pick. There simply is no reason on any level to be an investor in the stock. I just cannot figure out why it is not $30 or far less. If you believe in “valuation”, compared to Fedex, the stock would be less than $10.

I like the truck. I get all that. I will also like the stock at $10 - maybe.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under UPS | 1 Comment 

StockBlade Call To Sell UPS - Plunges Today

May 23, 2008 7:50 PM

dontstressfluffyduck.jpgWell our call to sell UPS has worked it’s magic - again. Down big today on huge volume. I mentioned that “I expected lower once $69.60 clears and that $68.36 is a MUST hold”. Once it pushed through $68.36 it plunged on big volume.

 Never underestimate the power and significance of my numbers…. They allow you to not look like this on day end…

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The Recent Reluctance To Call Shorts

May 18, 2008 1:37 PM

lightbulb.jpgYou may have noticed i have said “caution” a number of times, most recently on AAPL, GS and XLF, but have not called for an outright short, other than UPS. The reason is i would rather be short going with the tide of the market. Shorting against an overall uptrend market can work, but the profits are more limited, in general, and you can get whipsawed.

 For instance, I saw trouble in both Goldman and XLF on 05/03, but never called the short. I should have, obviously, but I thought the market “may” hold them. It didn’t.  However, once the market turns the other direction, and we get short chart patterns like those that formed in GS and XLF, I will go back to outright short calls and remove the word caution. For instance, right now, if the market sentiment (particularly energy) was negative, CHK would be a short right here with a hard stop above $59.60. But I would rather wait until the tide turns a bit…..

You may think my “lightbulb” has been turned off, but I try and make calls where I am reasonably confident that I am correct and I would rather not paddle upstream.

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