VLO and TSO: Long

July 17, 2008 1:41 AM

Both TSO and VLO, both refiners made important lows yesterday. This is likely because I think their margins are adversely affected by increases in oil, but not certain. This appears to be an inverse oil trade. At any rate, VLO is long above $29.70 and TSo is long above $16.11, IMO. If today’s highs do not clear first, the trade should be to buy all checkdowns and press these both to the long side.

Update: analyst commented on the refiners said that both TSO and VLO are likely to post losses. I think this is because of oil, as mentioned. High oil apparently crushes their margins. I wouldn’t hold these into earnings, for certain.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under TSO, VLO | 2 Comments

VLO and TSO revisited…

March 24, 2008 10:20 PM

If you recall, I posted that anyone long either VLO or TSO was guessing, IMO. And I do not believe in guessing - ever. They promptly spiked up on the 18th and 19th. One of my brothers even asked me…buy VLO??? I said…do what you wish…I listen to the charts and do not guess ….and they say do not chase here. I also mentioned how high will VLO go? Where is the low? I had no idea….so, I avoid.

Well, I did know that VLO had to clear $52.41 to be long in that area today…and buying near $52 and being the lone ranger was not a great idea.

I still have no opinion on either of these stocks until the market gives me firm numbers that I can trade off…. it is as simple as that. But I personally wouldn’t be long here.

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TSO and VLO are two examples…

March 20, 2008 12:48 AM

TSO and VLO are examples of hope and guessing. As my newsletter points out, I do not guess. My number on VLO was $47.65. Once that is violated, I exit until I see a new number. It did plunge $3 once that was cleared, so my number was correct. Where is the high on VLO now? More importantly, where is the low? I have no idea and neither does the market. Therefore, I consider it an avoid until further notice.

People long those two today were guessing and hoping. If VLO skyrockets and goes to $70, then they guessed right and great for them…but they were guessing.

My call to short CHK today was not guessing. My exit number is $49.88. Period. The only reason I said to short $47.50 and not higher was that I had strong reason to believe it would not clear $48 today and that was probably the highest price I could get to be short.

If you guess and hope, you will make market returns or far worse unless you are an exceptionally lucky person.

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