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We Have To Hold Today’s SP Low, XLF Should Be Biggest Gainer If It Holds

May 27, 2008 10:50 PM

I believe we HAVE to hold today’s low going forward or the market will get into a panic mode and we will fall all the way to 1350. Look to be long off today’s low. If we clear it I smell huge trouble. Financials reversed today and if we are going up, the best percentage gain should be long that sector. Therefore, look to be long XLF but know your exit point. I still believe there are tons of bad debts not disclosed and the market is wrong longer term - but this trading not worrying about “long term prospects”.

Today’s action was VERY important for the market. We are very, very close to melting down. That is why I believe we have to hold today’s low. I was reading a trading site i have subscribed to for years a bit ago, and his commentary ws the same - we are close to a meltdown if we do not reverse. So we are on the same page here. Again, for a trade, look to be long financials. Buy XLF, buy Goldman, buy whatever. BUT if we clear lows…run for cover as this thing is bye, bye Miss America Pie…not buy, buy…

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under GS, XLF | 14 Comments 

Calls To Avoid AAPL, WLT and GS - Bingo

May 19, 2008 11:55 PM

I should have called the short on AAPL, my bad. I must be getting soft in my “old age”. I saw the short, had the number, but thought the Appleheads may try and pierce it in a lifting market. They couldn’t and down over $4.00 today and down over $5.00 today from the high. It really was an easy risk/reward trade, so I aplogize for not being more aggressive as it really was a gift to short it.

 As far as Walter Industries, it was merely a “hunch” that it was extended, over hyped, and way over valued. Bingo, down over 4.00 also. Unfortunately, it did not make a new high and then sell down, so i still cannot call a short here. The trade will be long, I am just not certain where yet. And i am NOT a fan of the valuation.

Goldman traded as high as $189.42 today and quickly sold off to close at $184.40.

But I was correct on all three. Just “lucky” yet  once again apparently since charts do not matter…., so you are welcome, lol.

Do you not yet see the market players do not guess? There are hundreds of millions of dollars trading - they do NOT guess. Joe Public guesses and hopes, professionals don’t. I am trying to provide clues here…. please follow along…

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under AAPL, GS, WLT, XLF | Leave a Comment 

The Recent Reluctance To Call Shorts

May 18, 2008 1:37 PM

lightbulb.jpgYou may have noticed i have said “caution” a number of times, most recently on AAPL, GS and XLF, but have not called for an outright short, other than UPS. The reason is i would rather be short going with the tide of the market. Shorting against an overall uptrend market can work, but the profits are more limited, in general, and you can get whipsawed.

 For instance, I saw trouble in both Goldman and XLF on 05/03, but never called the short. I should have, obviously, but I thought the market “may” hold them. It didn’t.  However, once the market turns the other direction, and we get short chart patterns like those that formed in GS and XLF, I will go back to outright short calls and remove the word caution. For instance, right now, if the market sentiment (particularly energy) was negative, CHK would be a short right here with a hard stop above $59.60. But I would rather wait until the tide turns a bit…..

You may think my “lightbulb” has been turned off, but I try and make calls where I am reasonably confident that I am correct and I would rather not paddle upstream.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under CHK, GS, UPS, XLF | Leave a Comment 

Avoid Strength In Goldman

May 17, 2008 3:16 PM

I do not like the recent lows on Goldman (GS) in any way. It “may” reverse near $180, on further weakness, but let other’s guess. It would have to clear $203.39 to be long up near $200. Strength in that range is to be avoided. If it goes higher before lower, then $200 is likely a short. Earnings are coming up in June, I believe, and that will dictate direction. Until then, be careful long. I would have said to simply shorted it back then, but as i mentioned on May 2nd, the market has to clear 1383 to apply pressure this month, and it tested that area once, and bounced off 1383.75 and has moved higher.

The financials as a group were also a short. But the same as GS, I did not say short because of the likely overall market direction. To be long XLF on any strength here, it would need to clear $28.17. If we get strength near there, it is a sell and/or short, until proven otherwise.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under GS, XLF | Leave a Comment 

GS: We Warned to Avoid Goldman on 04/01 Above $180…….

April 10, 2008 11:12 PM

Goldman is likely to try and reverse soon. It has to hold $162.85 here. Look for a spike lower to reverse soon. Our advice is about $12 to the good in a week in a very flat market…..Look for more updates on GS tomorrow…

Written by · Filed Under GS | 6 Comments 

Stock Updates: XOM, AEM, XLF, CHK, AAPL, JOYG, GS, GOOG

April 3, 2008 4:51 PM

Most stocks are set up to break either way consistent with the overall market.

CHK is long above $42.15, nothing has changed. I said over a week ago it would have an issue near $48, and it has, and also said it wa likely to trade between $43-48 for quite some time, and it has. It has been in about a $2.00 trading range for 8 trading days. My bias is still long above $42.15 and caution near $48. Same story, different day.

XOM: Exxon took out a couple of key levels, but it has has issues inthe $90 area, repeatedly and I am not a fan of it up here. There is no hard number to be leary of except the all time high however.

AEM: This stock will be sold the second the trend breaks or gold falls off. This stock is a little more difficult to predict as it is traded as a “proxy” for gold prices, which in turn trades inversely to the dollar. This is a short waiting to happen up top however….so better have a quick break pedal if you are long this…

XLF: Not a fan of the financials up here unless we clearly take out the $27.50 range…too many brokers/banks have key points up in that range, and is why i said sell XLF yesterday at $27.10. It dropped a quick buck off that early today.

AAPL: Apple technically is all clear once we took out $151.20. There is caution up here though as I mentioned. Plenty of people that have been long Apple for 4 months…and sweating bullets every day would love to escape even. i also think people are far too optimistic on the Iphone as a competing product against RIMM. It isn’t even in the same class. The IPhone competes against personal use phones - not business - and RIMM is coming out with a touchscreen soon…. But the chart still says long….but have a quick exit if trouble…

JOYG: JOYG is an avoid up near $70.00, IMO. It has to clear $72.00 to be long in that area.

GS: I mentioned to be very careful Goldman above $180 the other day….and it backed off $182 range yesterday and slid all the way to a low of $172.88 today. It has to clear $184.52…and even then I am not a huge fan as it will have more issues near $200.

GOOG: Goog was an easy short today. it had to clear $475.74 to be long. Going forward, if it clears $432.01 there will be additional pressure put on. I said the other day I am simply not a fan of GOOG and expected it to reverse. Bingo.

Written by · Filed Under AAPL, AEM, CHK, GOOG, GS, JOYG, XLF, XOM | Leave a Comment 

Goldman Sachs (GS): Caution Above $180

April 1, 2008 9:40 PM

We should have looked more at Goldman, being a lead financial. It is a long above $140.27 and now a modest long above $162.85. You have to be very careful up much higher here as it would have to clear $184.52 to be long in that range. In addition, the months long downtrend is not much further up. i am not a fan of trendlines, as i have mentioned MANY times….just need to know it is there….

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