Our Call At The Open: LONG Financials, SELL Commodity Based Stocks - Bingo
April 1, 2008 1:09 PM
I said right at the open…”financials should lead us higher today and are the “lead dog” today….AND to AVOID ALL commodiy based stocks…..
XLF up 7.12%
AEM down 4.59%. One of 13 stocks in the SP down today…and StockBlade called it…
That was about as precise as possible….Cramerica followers need to tune in to my site once in a while…they are getting CRUSHED on his raging bull calls on gold and to a lesser extent other commodity stocks…..
AEM: Trouble Brewing?
April 1, 2008 10:09 AM
Aem needs to hold this level today. It “could” be ok if it closes today above $65.40. If the close is below $65.00 today, it appears that the heat is likely to be on here… it has been back and forth near that level lately….we will see…If it wasn’t for a massively up market….it would be taken out to the woodshed today
Dollar Bottom? Careful Long ALL Commodity Based Stocks
April 1, 2008 6:40 AM
The dollar may have put in a near term bottom yesterday and caution on all commodity based stocks here, IMO. Commodities have been an inverse dollar trade, not fundamental based. Any strength in the dollar should pressure commodities off their bubble highs.
Stock Comments: CHK, AEM, AAPL, XLF. Financials Are “Lead Dog” Today
April 1, 2008 5:04 AM
Nothing has changed on most stocks I have discussed recently.
CHK is long above $42.15. I said CHK was likely to trade sideways between $44 and $48 for an extended period. It has been in that range now for 6 trading days. I would rather be long a little cheaper here as it likely will have an issue in the $48 range again.
AEM: AEM is not out of the woods by any means. It has to hold $63.99 or it will spike lower, IMO. An easy trade would have been to short it once $70.25 cleared, but that would have been just trade. It should attempt to hold that number here. But as mentioned, these stocks will trade with gold and inverse to the dollar, to a large extent. i still believe that commodities are rolling over, to some extent, and caution is in order on that sector, near term.
AAPL: I still would rather buy Apple cheaper here. I am not a fan of it this high as the easy money as been made and there are PLENTY of people with their finger on the “thank you I am OUT even” button up around $160-$170. There is no reversal yet, but the strength does appear to be waning a bit. I had called the long on Feb 28th and was negative on this stock for several months.
XLF: Financials could lead the market higher today. $24.41 is likely to hold today. The ISM could dictate direction today. If that cannot take us down, then it should be difficult to clear that number today and traders are likely to trade financials long today. This could be a tight range however as it will have an issue near $27.
Gold Stocks are Trades- Not Investments
March 29, 2008 3:41 PM
If you take the Cramer’s of the world advice and go long stocks such as AEM, NEM, GG, etc, you need to understand what you are doing. These stocks are “temporarily” priced on the gold euphoria and the implosion of the dollar. Therefore, if you buy these, you need to understand the dollar and gold. For instance, if the dollar ever puts in a bottom againt the Euro (it hasn’t as of yet, IMO) then gold related stocks will get crushed as the extreme views of gold at $2,000 an ounce will be gone. I had mentioned the day before the recent dollar plunge, that if the dollar breaks 1.4968 against the Euro, it is going to get crushed further….it did. Point being, that was when you had to be long gold and related stocks.
Let’s look at fundamentals. AEM has a PE ratio of 72. Assuming they can TRIPLE earnings, the PE would be about 23 - still a high valuation with possible downside risk. Now let’s assume they cannot increase profit’s by 300% going forward and long term. Well, you know what would happen - the stock would drop massively, probably by far more than 50%.
If you do not feel comfortable in predicting the price of either the dollar or gold into the future, these stocks should not be considered an investment. They are a trade.
StockBlade’s Numbers for CHK, AEM, JOYG, VLO, DE, XLF, GOOG, EK, AAPL, XRT
March 28, 2008 8:35 PM
Our numbers to be long or short/avoid long each stock were just updated. See Current SB Numbers on the main menu for the chart.
CHK - Caution up near $49, AEM could roll over here…
March 27, 2008 1:12 PM
CHK has run up about 10% since my call to be long several days ago. Be very careful in the next day or two long especially in the $49 area. It has to clear $49.87 to be long up there…. Commodites have been on fire because the dollar has been getting crushed again. I don’t see a bottom in the dollar yet….but I do not follow currency much…
AEM also could roll over today….I said careful long in the $80 range…it hasn’t even come close…If it clears $70.25 today rolling over is likely….
AEM Long is still likely here….avoid anything near $80
March 25, 2008 4:09 PM
The trade is likely long here today on AEM. I am not a fan of long on any bubble stocks, especially as an investment. If long, I would exit on any spike near $80. It has to clear $$83.45 to be long up there, and I believe there will be shorts up there…. Hard stop on any longs is below $63.99…IMO. So if you can be long above that, it may present a favorable risk/reward trade here…
Stocks that I have mentioned to be careful long….
March 24, 2008 1:12 AM
I have mentioned a number of stocks in the last two weeks to either avoid long, be VERY careful long, or to flat out short them. All have got crushed in recent days.
JOYG: I said short it the day after it made an all time high of $72. Today $62.04
WLT: I said short it the day after it made an all time high of $61.20. Today $54.10
CHK: I said short it (twice) after it made all time highs at $49.87. Today $44.29
MON: I have strongly said avoid, avoid, avoid a number of times….it has plunged to a low of almost $90 Thursday
AEM: I said it was an implosion waiting to happen and to wait for a short signal. It has plunged from a high of $83.45. Today $67.19.
These are all moves within ONE week…and shows why you will eventually lose “following the crowd”, especially the crowd that is making raging bull noises on tv…. If you had bought all of these, you would be down over 15%….in ONE week….not good.
That is why I said short, avoid…or both……….. and Cramer was screaming long on both CHK and AEM….hmmm
AEM: What Now?
March 22, 2008 7:44 PM
Agnico-Eagle Mines was crushed in the last 3 days, down from a high of $83.45 to close at $67.19 on Thursday. I am not a believer in buying what I consider bubble or hype stocks and holding them overnight is a risky proposition. They can and will gap up or down at opens and eliminate any stop you may have placed. If you are looking to trade this stock, I would avoid chasing shorts here. The trade is actually long here with a hard stop below $63.99, IMO.
This stock is likely to follow gold prices, to some extent. But keep in mind, the valuation is exteme, and if the wind is taken out of this balloon, it could plunge far lower.
If you happen to be a Cramer listener and bought this 2-4 days ago and want out, or looking to short it, The $80 area appears to be trouble here. People that bought this stock in that range are most likely scared and want out as close to break even as possible - and some will be looking to get out in that range. It is also a short near $80, if it get’s there with a hard stop above $83.45.
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