AEM: My Cramer Call Whipping Boy Revisited
July 31, 2008 1:23 AM
I have long been critical of Cramer’s call to be long AEM near the high. In addition, the stock was clearly a house of cards, to say the least. It hit a recent high of $80.29 on 07/15 and just 11 trading days later it is $55.60. This is EXACTLY why I repeatedly warn on stocks that have to clear points that are important. Why on earth would anyone be long AEM at $80 when it has to clear $83.45 to be long? Why?
Not to mention that this stock appears to be a massive bubble by any measure, but that is a different issue. Point being, If it had to clear $83.45 to be long, and you are long at $80, you are a complete knucklehead. and begging to donate your money. The stock has plunged over 35% in two weeks and there was simply no reason to even consider being long the stock in that range. This is what puzzles me about the markets. On 07/15 there was over 4 million shares traded between $75 and $80. There are buyers of 4 million shares near $80? It is mind boggling to me. If I had more time to look at 30-50 charts a day, I could warn about these. The problem is, as I have mentioned, I simply do not have time.
At any rate, AEM has to hold $52.95 here and the “trade” is long above it, IMO. I would never say invest in this silliness, but that is the trade, as I see it, if you just have to trade this bubble.
AEM: I Wouldn’t Buy It Here With Your Money
July 1, 2008 11:45 PM
I must be very confused on AEM. I understand that it trades with the price of gold and is almost a stock proxy for it, but please. It has a 72 PE and is up on pure speculation about gold. While i agree that it is possible for the dollar to be near worthless at some point, buying this here makes no sense and is extreme risk, IMO.
This is another case where if you make trades on valuation you will likely get crushed. Is AEM worth $75? I would almost say no chance, possibly not even half. Does it matter? Noooooo. People could bid this thing up to who knows what if gold clears its high. Someone will likely be left “holding the last card” on this someday. I would not touch it.
Today’s Rally In AEM Is Nonsense
May 8, 2008 11:43 PM
The stock that Cramer told a caller to “buy more” near the highs, AEM, rallied today. I suspect Cramer has not mentioned that stock call lately as he is getting crushed. I even mentioned that very night (see earlier posts) that he was dead wrong, and it was a short, NOT a double down. Anyhow, today’s move up is a sucker’s rally…and the short will come up higher on strength. This is an overhyped, grossly overvalued stock, and longs will be very fortunate to escape it on further strength. Today was a trendbreak, nothing more.
AEM: The Falling Knife Continues, Cramerica Is Geting Crushed, StockBlade Readers Win Yet Again
April 29, 2008 11:24 PM
Our favorite whipping boy Cramer stock AEM was hammered yet again today, settling at $58.50, down a mere $25 off it’s high when Cramer told a caller to “buy more” when he was down off the high. I had posted back then, “buy more??? it is a SHORT”. StockBlade is crushing Cramerica, yet again. I said back then that I felt sorry for the caller as I saw the stock was in big trouble and have repeatedly warned to avoid it.
He get’s millions for doing a gimmick show, I give readers REAL insight and make pennies….such is life. I wish EVERY Mad Money listener would check our site before making a Cramer trade/investment….but I can’t save the world.
CAUTION: XLF, WLT, CHK
April 28, 2008 10:36 PM
If not for the Fed on Wednesday, I would say short WLT, and CHk right here and extreme caution in this range on XLF. AAPL cleared the possible reversal attempt attempt early on and took out that play. it had to clear Friday’s low to “technicially” put a short on, and it never even came close. Not exactly sure where this strength in AAPL is coming from as their numbers do not support this strength, IMO. But you have the “AppleHeads” that want to own this stock. Volume has dropped dramatically in the last 2 days on Apple however, so this rally is weak, at best. AEM fell again, not a shock at all. The Cramer heads are going to be beat to BK on his call to be long at the highs. If the dollar firms, AEM could easily see $35. Big if, I know.
The Fed decision on Wednesday takes all plays off the board, basically, as it is going to move afterward, most likely. But be careful here.
AEM Is Not Out Of The Woods By Any Stretch, Cramerica Sheep Take Another Beating
April 26, 2008 8:27 AM
How are the Cramerica Sheep liking his call to be long AEM AT THE HIGHS when I warned against it - repeatedly. AEM is STILL in trouble here. If it cannot take out the all time high, then testing the December 07 low of $45.55 is not impossible. That is the only key number to be long AEM above here. I have warned many, many times to avoid this stock. I feel bad for the guy that called in to Mad Money the day after AEM made it’s all time high, and Cramer’s advice was to “buy more”. That post is on here if you do a search of AEM. In that post I said buy more??? AEM is a SHORT …not a double down.
If you invest on what you “believe” is likely in the macro future, like Cramer’s call that gold is going to $1600, and ignore what the market is saying, you are gambling. it is that simple. AEM clearly was a short below it’s high and his advice to “buy more” is simple stupidity.
AEM Is An Avoid On Both Sides Of The Trade Here
April 22, 2008 10:19 PM
As our readers have known, I have been VERY skeptical of AEM and Cramers raging bull on this stock, and have said short it, at least once, and avoid it a number of times. Was a little suprised it didnt have any strength today with the dollar hitting new lows. Probably because the stock is grossly over valued by any and all measures.
With that said, it is likely to attempt a reversal soon, unless the dollar spikes lower and makes a complete reversal. AEM needs a reversal here, or i am VERY skeptical of any and all moves higher. It may try and reverse near $64 range…maybe. i don’t really have a strong feel for the stock here as the move up off the recent low was not supported, IMO. I just not have a firm number to be long or short from here….other than the all time high, which was an obvious short.
Stay Cautious on ALL Commodity Stocks Until Further Notice….
April 20, 2008 5:09 PM
There could be at least a near term botton in the dollar here and that could really pressure commodity stocks near term, as I mentioned before the market opened on Friday. If you want to stay long the market, I believe extreme caution is in order here on all commodity stocks, especially gold and silver miners like AEM. There is a lot of talk overseas from foreign bankers about how to push up the dollar as it is hurting the Euro’s big time in exports, and leading to worldwide inflation as most everything is priced in dollars. Use caution here, on AEM, ABX, BRK, WLT, etc. AEM was a short in the high $70’s area anyhow and WLT and CHK are both an avoid in the area as well.
If you noticed, both AEM and ABX were actually down in a huge rally on Friday, as I said pre-open.
Stock Updates: XOM, AEM, XLF, CHK, AAPL, JOYG, GS, GOOG
April 3, 2008 4:51 PM
Most stocks are set up to break either way consistent with the overall market.
CHK is long above $42.15, nothing has changed. I said over a week ago it would have an issue near $48, and it has, and also said it wa likely to trade between $43-48 for quite some time, and it has. It has been in about a $2.00 trading range for 8 trading days. My bias is still long above $42.15 and caution near $48. Same story, different day.
XOM: Exxon took out a couple of key levels, but it has has issues inthe $90 area, repeatedly and I am not a fan of it up here. There is no hard number to be leary of except the all time high however.
AEM: This stock will be sold the second the trend breaks or gold falls off. This stock is a little more difficult to predict as it is traded as a “proxy” for gold prices, which in turn trades inversely to the dollar. This is a short waiting to happen up top however….so better have a quick break pedal if you are long this…
XLF: Not a fan of the financials up here unless we clearly take out the $27.50 range…too many brokers/banks have key points up in that range, and is why i said sell XLF yesterday at $27.10. It dropped a quick buck off that early today.
AAPL: Apple technically is all clear once we took out $151.20. There is caution up here though as I mentioned. Plenty of people that have been long Apple for 4 months…and sweating bullets every day would love to escape even. i also think people are far too optimistic on the Iphone as a competing product against RIMM. It isn’t even in the same class. The IPhone competes against personal use phones - not business - and RIMM is coming out with a touchscreen soon…. But the chart still says long….but have a quick exit if trouble…
JOYG: JOYG is an avoid up near $70.00, IMO. It has to clear $72.00 to be long in that area.
GS: I mentioned to be very careful Goldman above $180 the other day….and it backed off $182 range yesterday and slid all the way to a low of $172.88 today. It has to clear $184.52…and even then I am not a huge fan as it will have more issues near $200.
GOOG: Goog was an easy short today. it had to clear $475.74 to be long. Going forward, if it clears $432.01 there will be additional pressure put on. I said the other day I am simply not a fan of GOOG and expected it to reverse. Bingo.
Cramer: “Buy Anything But Banks”, StockBlade Yesterday: LONG Financials. Result? Financials Led The Market To Huge Rally
April 2, 2008 8:32 AM
We like to point out differences between us and the Talking Heads when there are clear differences of opinion. Cramer has been relentless in his mantra to avoid banks, buy gold, etc etc for weeks. What did we say? AVOID commodities, AVOID gold related, and LONG financials - the exact opposite.
StockBlade let’s the “market” tell us what is right and what is wrong, not the Heads. Financials were probably the number one sector yesterday up over 7% and we called it at the open saying “financials should lead the market higher and are the lead dog today”…..and AEM was one of only 13 SP stocks down on the day.
I think I want a raise….
-
Recent Commentary
- Market Recap: Called Today’s Action On The Money Almost Literally
- Market Update: My Note On Caution at 1285 Has Proved Correct Thus Far
- Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real Strength
- Morning Call: Futures Move Higher On Durable Goods
- FDIC Report: 117 Financial Institutions In Trouble, One Big Problem, I Do Not Believe It
- Consumer Confidence Up? This Is Clearly An Indictment On Public Education
- Market Direction: While The Chart Still Says Long….
- Market Recap: 1261 Held once Again
- Market Update: Market Was Bought Early, 3:00 EST Is Likely Key
- Market Open: 1263.25 Early Low
- Morning Call: Futures Flat, New Home Sales At 10:00, FOMC Minutes Late
- Market Recap: My Gap Rule Ruled The Day
- Market Update: 1261 Should Hold - If Not We May See Panic
- Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important
- Morning Call: Decision Time
- Market Update: Typical Trend Day Higher Early As Predicted, Now The Outcome Is Clearly In Doubt
- Market Open: Watch The Gap Reaction
- Morning Call: Futures Up, Long All CheckDowns Early Should Be Play
Our Mascot Trading Goal: Ferrari 599
