AAPL Gets Crushed As I Warned Tuesday
June 12, 2008 11:37 PM
AAPL got completly hammered today as i warned Tuesday in this AAPL post. I said then that “I do NOT like the lows, but i do like the highs” and being long AAPL “you were begging to donate your money”. It finally got the hammer as I thought was coming, down $7.55 or 4.18%.
I had also previous warned that “there was nothing to stop any fall all the way to $144.54″.
If you took heed to my warning then good job. If you are long, then well, next time perhaps listen, lol. It wasn’t me that was saying it was likely going to get torched, the market was saying it, I was just watching and listening - and letting you know what I believed the market was telling me.
AAPL Strength Surprising - But Likely To be Sold
June 10, 2008 11:42 PM
I do NOT like the lows on AAPL. I do like the highs. This stock you are buying at your own peril, IMO. The action today made zero sense. But we are still in “3G IPhone Fever” stage, so anything can happen. But buying in this range with no decent lows, you are begging to donate your money, IMO. Buying here I don’t like it, I don’t like it, and one more thing, I don’t like it.
If you are long AAPl here, best of luck, you are gambling, at best. I don’t gamble, and I don’t guess. It is an avoid. If it goes to a $1000, fine, they guessed right. But they were guessing. Good luck with that.
AAPL: Sold In Full Force As Expected
June 9, 2008 10:20 PM
The volume was huge today on AAPL and it sold down hard before trying to come back. This is what I expected. They announce the 3G IPhone today and the sellers have been waiting for the announcement to sell the stock. There is an old mantra on Wall St. - buy the rumor, sell the news. So as soon as the news was over there are players who will jump ship. We also would have to clear $192.24 to be long up here (even then I do not like it as you still have the high to contend with as I have repeatedly mentioned).
I still have no firm points to hold on AAPL except $144.54. This stock is an avoid IMO. But I have been playing that same song for a month.
StockBlade Call To Avoid AAPL And Goldman- Both Get The Hammer
May 22, 2008 12:23 AM
We warned to avoid Apple in this area and said we should have advocated to short it. It got crushed today. I just cannot imagine what people are thinking being long AAPL in the $190 range. The chart says no, common sense says no, the PE says no AND it is in the worst space to be in - in the world - US Consumer Discretionary. Ok, well, the worst space to be in is airlines, but let’s be real, anyone buying those may as well give me all their money now and save them time from watching their account plunge to nothing.
Anyhow, the Appleheads took a beating today. I am not down on AAPL, Jobs is brilliant ( and I have very high standards for brilliance, Gates is not in that category, IMO) . But the stock is overpriced and overhyped and more importantly the chart screamed to avoid it up here. On my other caution call on AAPL the reversal was not “confirmed”. The reversal was confirmed on 05/15. Not to get into what I consider a confirmation or not, but that reversal was never confirmed and it marched higher.
Oh, and I think Cramer JUST screamed long AAPL yesterday…uhhhhh wrong as I said.
Calls To Avoid AAPL, WLT and GS - Bingo
May 19, 2008 11:55 PM
I should have called the short on AAPL, my bad. I must be getting soft in my “old age”. I saw the short, had the number, but thought the Appleheads may try and pierce it in a lifting market. They couldn’t and down over $4.00 today and down over $5.00 today from the high. It really was an easy risk/reward trade, so I aplogize for not being more aggressive as it really was a gift to short it.
As far as Walter Industries, it was merely a “hunch” that it was extended, over hyped, and way over valued. Bingo, down over 4.00 also. Unfortunately, it did not make a new high and then sell down, so i still cannot call a short here. The trade will be long, I am just not certain where yet. And i am NOT a fan of the valuation.
Goldman traded as high as $189.42 today and quickly sold off to close at $184.40.
But I was correct on all three. Just “lucky” yet once again apparently since charts do not matter…., so you are welcome, lol.
Do you not yet see the market players do not guess? There are hundreds of millions of dollars trading - they do NOT guess. Joe Public guesses and hopes, professionals don’t. I am trying to provide clues here…. please follow along…
We Warned About Being Long Apple Up Here
May 7, 2008 10:06 PM
I have repeatedly said to chase AAPL up here was very likely a mistake. The risk/reward ratio up in this range is poor, at best. I have been head faked on a possible reversal on AAPL earlier. This time could be real. There simply is zero reason to be long AAPL above $180. My motto is, and always will be, let others be the Long Ranger and challenge highs. Let them assume the risk - it isn’t a good trade or investment.
It made a possible reversal today and EXTREME caution AAPL here. It has to clear $188.20 to be long, and even then we have $202.96 to contend with. There is simply zero reason to be long it here. You could short it under that number, but keep in mind, we have to get under 1383 to pressure the overall market, IMO. I also mentioned that is AAPL does not have another huge product in the works, this year, the stock is overvalued, and is going down. While that is always a possibility, I would rather never guess on the future. Let other’s guess, and let others be the Lone Ranger, and your returns should be better the market. Far better.
There is no firm number that has to hold on AAPL above $144.54. It may and try to hold around $160 here, maybe.
If Not For The Coming Release Of Iphone 3G, AAPL would be a short right here.
April 30, 2008 9:05 PM
If not for the Iphone coming release and the possible applehead euphoria, Apple would be a short at $175 with a hard stop above $180. Be very cautious long here, at the very least. If it does sell down here, and you want to be long, the $152 area probably won’t easily be exceeded, and $149.25 is likely to hold.
CAUTION: XLF, WLT, CHK
April 28, 2008 10:36 PM
If not for the Fed on Wednesday, I would say short WLT, and CHk right here and extreme caution in this range on XLF. AAPL cleared the possible reversal attempt attempt early on and took out that play. it had to clear Friday’s low to “technicially” put a short on, and it never even came close. Not exactly sure where this strength in AAPL is coming from as their numbers do not support this strength, IMO. But you have the “AppleHeads” that want to own this stock. Volume has dropped dramatically in the last 2 days on Apple however, so this rally is weak, at best. AEM fell again, not a shock at all. The Cramer heads are going to be beat to BK on his call to be long at the highs. If the dollar firms, AEM could easily see $35. Big if, I know.
The Fed decision on Wednesday takes all plays off the board, basically, as it is going to move afterward, most likely. But be careful here.
Caution On AAPL Here
April 26, 2008 7:41 AM
I do not like AAPL at these levels and it has to clear Friday’s high to be long here. The risk reward on AAPL up here seems marginal, at best. The easy money on this stock has been made off the low of which I said to be long. I am not big into analyzing sales/revenue and all that as i let the market tell me what they think of it as that is all that matters, but Ipod sales only increased 1% year over year. They have to come up with something new…and big….or the stock is overvalued, IMO. While Jobs seems to always come up with something huge…caution on AAPL up here.
If you are a trader, the trade is to short AAPL here with a hard stop above today’s high. My only concern about being short is that the market continues to show strength and the SP chart still says higher before lower. I would rather get a market reversal AND an AAPL reversal to really put some pressure on.
Perplexed Why We Said CAUTION On AAPL At $160?
April 17, 2008 1:28 AM
People wonder how did we made the correct call on AAPl and most any other stock, when there was no “chart” indication to avoid that area and wonder if we have some magical formula. This is rather simple. I knew that somewhere in that range, there was likely more supply than demand for AAPL, I just didn’t have an exact number, or I would have said to short it there. (I did say the stock was a likely short the next day after I was proved correct however). Reader’s of this site know that I am not cautious about my calls to short stocks - I have said to short stocks at ALL time highs several times….and all were proven correct….Why did I know or some may say “feel” this? I watch the stock on occasion and have a feel where problems are likely.
That is why trading and investing is far more of an art than a science. And why “seasoned” traders can beat the rookies… I was reasonably confident that AAPL would be in trouble up there, it was obviously extended anyhow, and…bingo…it fell $15 in about a week. Nothing to write home about, but that’s a 9% “gift” in a week’s time.
Other calls, I have a firm number to avoid. For example, I said to AVOID Goldman above $180 and to SELL the financial ETF XLF at $27.10. Both were good for another 10% plus in a week. That call wasn’t a “feel”, it was the SB number to avoid.
-
Recent Commentary
- Site Update: It Has Been Fun, But Closing It
- Morning Call: Open Sold
- Market Recap: GM News Was Not Really A Deal, Dow Low Cleared Late and Down She Goes
- Morning Call: Open Sold, Dow 7773
- Market Call Revisited: Sell Asia
- Market Recap: Not Good
- Market Update: Doesn’t Look Good, 818 and 826
- Market Recap: Buyers Above 818
- Morning Call: Open Gap Bought
- Market Recap: Buying On A Big Number, Now What?
- Morning Call: Still Uncertainty
- Market View: GM Holds The Cards
- Stock Charts VS Market Charts
- Market Recap: Somewhat Predictable, Low Came Where I Said Was Likely
- Morning Call: Unclear, Risk Is High
- Huge Rally: Now What
- Market Comment: Does News Even Matter?
- Market Recap: Close Day Craziness
Our Mascot Trading Goal: Ferrari 599
