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Cramer Believers: Post His Calls, I Will Go Head To Head

July 22, 2008 12:10 AM

thumbsup.jpgIf we have any Cramer followers that are readers and they are willing to post all his calls in comments, I will post my views on each stock and see who wins. I am just some amateur “making calls out of his garage” so to speak, but I believe I can beat him, head to head. Considering that Leonard The Monkey allegedly routinely beats him, supposedly, this may not be a great feat. But would be a fun challenge, nonetheless.

I would rather go against a “real” advisor or hedge fund picker to make things more interesting. If i was friends with any, I would see if they would give it a whirl. Then again, no “professional” is going to risk their stature by possibly losing to some amateur blogger. So that seems very unlikely. But boy would that get me fired up.

But the timeframe would have to be defined as my calls are generally for 3 days, not 3 years. I am not “smart enough” to predict 3 years into the future. Then again, who is. The SP could be 800 or 1600 in 3 years, I have no idea and do not much care. All I know is if the SP becomes “long above x”, then it is. If that long carries 3 days, or 10 years, I have no idea. News will dictate long term, and I cannot predict news long term. Well, I did on GM, FNM and homebuilders, well and energy stocks - but other than that….  

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | 6 Comments 

Talking Heads: Cramer On 06/26 “Buy RIMM, It Was Just A Bad Day”

July 11, 2008 10:01 PM

1sheep.jpgAfter the close on 06/26, the day RIMM gaped down, Cramer said on his show to buy RIMM here, that it was just a “bad day”. Now that the stock fell another $7.34 today alone, i am guessing a “few” of his followers are a bit concerned about this “insight”. Since I like to compare and contrast his calls in relation to my opinions when we happen to comment on the same stock, let’s review what I have said.

1. After the gap lower, I said to “leave it alone” and wait to see what is going to happen.

2. I then said, on several occasions that there was “only one trade and that was short below both $124.50 and $128.98″ and that you definitely could not be long the stock.

3. I reiterated my view last night that the chart “clearly says lower before higher here” unless news and that “the probability that we have seen the low on RIMM here is extremely small, unless news.”

4. I had also “mentioned” previously that to be long against a gap lower that was sold you would be a “total moron, IMO”. Ok, that was a bit harsh, but still.

The point being, once again, Cramer had his listeners long against an obvious short/avoid long chart pattern and they are getting crushed. Could it reverse here and skyrocket? Yes. Anything is always possible. But if the chart says either short or do not be long, why even consider buying it? Even if you are a so called “long term investor, would you rather not buy a stock when the chart says long and not short?

Everyone has their own view and opinion on the market and a stock. That is why the market trades - there are buyers and there are sellers. I did not have much of an opinion on RIMM for the first few days after the gap down as I thought it was “possible” it could reverse off a low and then take out the gap high. That is why i said “let it settle here”. Once I saw that the lows could not hold and it could not take out that high, then I started to mention that the “only trade was short below both $128.98 and $124.50, or simply leave it alone”. There was no trade or reason to be long, IMO. There was strength near $122 that was no longer supported. But that is how I personally view the markets. Obviously the buyers at $122 did not agree with my “view”. Unfortunately for them, they were wrong.

The stock could reverse Monday and put in a firm low. It may go much lower, it is hard to know for sure. But why guess? This stock may not reverse for another 20 points or it may reverse in another 2. points. I have no idea either way, but I certainly have no interest in guessing on it.

If you read my “Every Investment Should Begin As A Positive Trade” article, you can see the logic in this thinking. Even if an investor, wait until the “trade” says long and the odds of having a profitable investment is far, far greater. In addition, it will allow you to sleep at night not wondering if RIMM is going lower and lower and lower when you are long at $122 when I mentioned the chart “clearly said lower”. I even said in one article “why would anyone buy here at $122 when the chart clearly says short?. I just do not get it”.

To be fair, RIMM is probably getting punished here because of the rumors surrounding the delay of their new phone. If they do not release it for the holiday season, then obviously this is a big hit to earnings. And this rumor came out after earnings. But still, you do not buy into gap downs that are sold, ever, IMO. You WILL lose most of the time, IMO. This stock has extreme risk on both sides because of the uncertainty regarding the new phone. If they came out and said “new phone to be released on 09/01″ and you were short the stock, you would likely get demolished. It could, and probably would, go up $15-$20 that DAY, maybe more. On the other hand, if they came out and said “there is a delay and the new phones will not be released until next April” you would likely see ANOTHER big gap lower. The risk here is extreme. The only thing you can do with this uncertainty is intraday trade it, if you are very good, or leave it alone. Holding overnight positions in this stock involves extreme risk whether long or short, IMO.

If you consistently buy into gap downs that are  clearly “sold” because the stock is “cheaper”, you are begging to forfeit your money. It makes no sense on any level, IMO.

 Before earnings, the chart on RIMM looked great and it looked like it was going higher. But as I have mentioned many, many times, news will blow up charts and earnings is big news, or certainly can be,  and you have to react to the news as there is a new supply and demand chart based on the news. News WILL always happen on stocks. Always. You have to react when this happens and know if you should cut your loss or not based on the new information. And you should do it quickly. Then again, I have mentioned more times than I can count that having positions into earnings on a stock like RIMM, AAPL or GOOG is gambling. So I wouldn’t have been in the stock to begin with, on either side.

I think I said last night DO NOT BE A SHEEP. Point proven again. Cramer makes many millions giving this “insight” while his listeners routinely get slaughtered, and I make pennies on a personal blog expressing amateur opinions. Such is life.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | Leave a Comment 

Homebuilders Down 20% Since March 25th Call That “Cramer Was Wrong”

June 7, 2008 2:15 PM

dollarsignhouse.jpgOn March 25th, right after Cramer (and probably Fast Money, but not sure) was saying buy, buy, buy home-builders - we stated wrong - they are going lower. XHB was $23.38 that day and now is $18.81 and I believe headed far lower. The Toll CEO recently came out and said that housing was in a “depression”. Thanks for that insight as I could never have guessed that on my own. Housing and home-building is going lower, period. There are 1.1 million homes currently in foreclosure and another 3 million currently “at least” 1 month behind. All statistics related to housing are at record worse levels, both in numbers and percentages.

The call to avoid/sell home-builders and anything housing related was from a macro view. I do not often make calls based on a macro view and generally let the market tell me who is right and wrong - but sometimes the evidence is so overwhelming that it cannot be ignored. The numbers simply told a very compelling picture of big, big problems ahead. And it isn’t even close to over.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | Leave a Comment 

StockBlade Call On March 25th Revisited: “Cramer Is Dead Wrong. Housing And Homebuilders Are Going LOWER”

May 9, 2008 11:26 PM

wantedposter.jpgNot often will you see a site come out the SAME day as Cramer and say he is dead wrong. We do it often. On March 25th (you can search the post), we said Cramer is dead wrong, housing and homebuilders are going lower, this was nothing more than a short covering rally. Homebuilders have only fallen about 10% since, but more than 15% off the recent high. Down 10% is a good call, last I checked. 

Then again, if you are long AEM on Cramer’s call to “buy more” the day after it’s high and we said the stock was a SHORT…you would be down 20%…and counting. Or up 20% if you had listened to us and shorted it. So maybe “only” down 10% a month on Mad Money is good, not sure.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer | Leave a Comment 

This Is Why I Do Not Like To Watch Fast Money/Cramer

April 30, 2008 9:00 PM

I feel I need to watch Fast Money and Cramer periodically so I can comment on (read SAVE their listeners) stocks they are yelling bull on. Of course, Fast Money is saying long C, long the market, Dennis Gartmen saying market is going higher, bla bla bla. The reason that I would rather NOT watch it is that it skews what I see. People on TV making millions, add in a famous trader, and then mix in some Cramer (bull), and I begin to doubt myself sometimes.

But as StockBlade readers have seen, my thoughts are generally correct, and they are wrong more often than not, IMO.

They can yell their bull until they turn blue, my position does NOT change here. CAUTION is in order until we clear today’s high.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Fast Money | Leave a Comment 

AEM: The Falling Knife Continues, Cramerica Is Geting Crushed, StockBlade Readers Win Yet Again

April 29, 2008 11:24 PM

cutcrap.jpgOur favorite whipping boy Cramer stock AEM was hammered yet again today, settling at $58.50, down a mere $25 off it’s high when Cramer told a caller to “buy more” when he was down off the high. I had posted back then, “buy more??? it is a SHORT”. StockBlade is crushing Cramerica, yet again. I said back then that I felt sorry for the caller as I saw the stock was in big trouble and have repeatedly warned to avoid it.

He get’s millions for doing a gimmick show, I give readers REAL insight and make pennies….such is life. I wish EVERY Mad Money listener would check our site before making a Cramer trade/investment….but I can’t save the world.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under AEM, Cramer | Leave a Comment 

We Haven’t Paid Much Attention To Cramer and the Fast Money Boys Lately

April 17, 2008 11:38 PM

2stuffedsheep.jpgSorry, we haven’t paid much attention to Cramer and Fast Money lately to see if they are leading more sheep over a steep cliff. Like I mentioned, if someone would like a second opinion on one of their picks, post it. It is tiresome to watch the shows, but we do try and “save” a few people from getting slaughtered when we can. I could be wrong on the timing, but if i recall, Cramer was raging his bull on ONLY 3 tech stocks late last year….and i think they were GOOG, AAPL and RIMM. I know one was AAPl for sure. They all fell a mere 40% off their highs before recently recovering some of those losses. I agree with Cramer’s statement that “pigs get slaughtered” but so do most of his listeners because they blindly chase…

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Fast Money | Leave a Comment 

Cramer: “Buy Anything But Banks”, StockBlade Yesterday: LONG Financials. Result? Financials Led The Market To Huge Rally

April 2, 2008 8:32 AM

lightbulbbright.jpgWe like to point out differences between us and the Talking Heads when there are clear differences of opinion. Cramer has been relentless in his mantra to avoid banks, buy gold, etc etc for weeks. What did we say? AVOID commodities, AVOID gold related, and LONG financials - the exact opposite.

StockBlade let’s the “market” tell us what is right and what is wrong, not the Heads. Financials were probably the number one sector yesterday up over 7% and we called it at the open saying “financials should lead the market higher and are the lead dog today”…..and AEM was one of only 13 SP stocks down on the day.

I think I want a raise….

Written by · Filed Under AEM, Cramer | 1 Comment 

Our Call At The Open: LONG Financials, SELL Commodity Based Stocks - Bingo

April 1, 2008 1:09 PM

I said right at the open…”financials should lead us higher today and are the “lead dog” today….AND to AVOID ALL commodiy based stocks…..

 XLF up 7.12%

AEM down 4.59%. One of 13 stocks in the SP down today…and StockBlade called it…

That was about as precise as possible….Cramerica followers need to tune in to my site once in a while…they are getting CRUSHED on his raging bull calls on gold and to a lesser extent other commodity stocks…..

Written by · Filed Under AEM, Cramer | Leave a Comment 

Homebuilders - Short covering, as I said…Cramer is wrong

March 27, 2008 1:26 PM

I posted a few days ago that housing/homebuilders was nothing more than a short covering rally and to avoid. Cramer was roaring his bull on these…I said wrong, wrong, wrong. They got crushed yesterday. That is still the case and all are a a strong avoid, IMO. This is a bear value trap and Cramer is 100% wrong, IMO.

Written by · Filed Under Cramer | Leave a Comment 

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