Cramer Believers: Post His Calls, I Will Go Head To Head

July 22, 2008 12:10 AM

If we have any Cramer followers that are readers and they are willing to post all his calls in comments, I will post my views on each stock and see who wins. I am just some amateur “making calls out of his garage” so to speak, but I believe I can beat him, head to head. Considering that Leonard The Monkey allegedly routinely beats him, supposedly, this may not be a great feat. But would be a fun challenge, nonetheless.

I would rather go against a “real” advisor or hedge fund picker to make things more interesting. If i was friends with any, I would see if they would give it a whirl. Then again, no “professional” is going to risk their stature by possibly losing to some amateur blogger. So that seems very unlikely. But boy would that get me fired up.

But the timeframe would have to be defined as my calls are generally for 3 days, not 3 years. I am not “smart enough” to predict 3 years into the future. Then again, who is. The SP could be 800 or 1600 in 3 years, I have no idea and do not much care. All I know is if the SP becomes “long above x”, then it is. If that long carries 3 days, or 10 years, I have no idea. News will dictate long term, and I cannot predict news long term. Well, I did on GM, FNM and homebuilders, well and energy stocks - but other than that….

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | 6 Comments

Talking Heads: Cramer On 06/26 “Buy RIMM, It Was Just A Bad Day”

July 11, 2008 10:01 PM

After the close on 06/26, the day RIMM gaped down, Cramer said on his show to buy RIMM here, that it was just a “bad day”. Now that the stock fell another $7.34 today alone, i am guessing a “few” of his followers are a bit concerned about this “insight”. Since I like to compare and contrast his calls in relation to my opinions when we happen to comment on the same stock, let’s review what I have said.

1. After the gap lower, I said to “leave it alone” and wait to see what is going to happen.

2. I then said, on several occasions that there was “only one trade and that was short below both $124.50 and $128.98″ and that you definitely could not be long the stock.

3. I reiterated my view last night that the chart “clearly says lower before higher here” unless news and that “the probability that we have seen the low on RIMM here is extremely small, unless news.”

4. I had also “mentioned” previously that to be long against a gap lower that was sold you would be a “total moron, IMO”. Ok, that was a bit harsh, but still.

The point being, once again, Cramer had his listeners long against an obvious short/avoid long chart pattern and they are getting crushed. Could it reverse here and skyrocket? Yes. Anything is always possible. But if the chart says either short or do not be long, why even consider buying it? Even if you are a so called “long term investor, would you rather not buy a stock when the chart says long and not short?

Everyone has their own view and opinion on the market and a stock. That is why the market trades - there are buyers and there are sellers. I did not have much of an opinion on RIMM for the first few days after the gap down as I thought it was “possible” it could reverse off a low and then take out the gap high. That is why i said “let it settle here”. Once I saw that the lows could not hold and it could not take out that high, then I started to mention that the “only trade was short below both $128.98 and $124.50, or simply leave it alone”. There was no trade or reason to be long, IMO. There was strength near $122 that was no longer supported. But that is how I personally view the markets. Obviously the buyers at $122 did not agree with my “view”. Unfortunately for them, they were wrong.

The stock could reverse Monday and put in a firm low. It may go much lower, it is hard to know for sure. But why guess? This stock may not reverse for another 20 points or it may reverse in another 2. points. I have no idea either way, but I certainly have no interest in guessing on it.

If you read my “Every Investment Should Begin As A Positive Trade” article, you can see the logic in this thinking. Even if an investor, wait until the “trade” says long and the odds of having a profitable investment is far, far greater. In addition, it will allow you to sleep at night not wondering if RIMM is going lower and lower and lower when you are long at $122 when I mentioned the chart “clearly said lower”. I even said in one article “why would anyone buy here at $122 when the chart clearly says short?. I just do not get it”.

To be fair, RIMM is probably getting punished here because of the rumors surrounding the delay of their new phone. If they do not release it for the holiday season, then obviously this is a big hit to earnings. And this rumor came out after earnings. But still, you do not buy into gap downs that are sold, ever, IMO. You WILL lose most of the time, IMO. This stock has extreme risk on both sides because of the uncertainty regarding the new phone. If they came out and said “new phone to be released on 09/01″ and you were short the stock, you would likely get demolished. It could, and probably would, go up $15-$20 that DAY, maybe more. On the other hand, if they came out and said “there is a delay and the new phones will not be released until next April” you would likely see ANOTHER big gap lower. The risk here is extreme. The only thing you can do with this uncertainty is intraday trade it, if you are very good, or leave it alone. Holding overnight positions in this stock involves extreme risk whether long or short, IMO.

If you consistently buy into gap downs that are clearly “sold” because the stock is “cheaper”, you are begging to forfeit your money. It makes no sense on any level, IMO.

Before earnings, the chart on RIMM looked great and it looked like it was going higher. But as I have mentioned many, many times, news will blow up charts and earnings is big news, or certainly can be, and you have to react to the news as there is a new supply and demand chart based on the news. News WILL always happen on stocks. Always. You have to react when this happens and know if you should cut your loss or not based on the new information. And you should do it quickly. Then again, I have mentioned more times than I can count that having positions into earnings on a stock like RIMM, AAPL or GOOG is gambling. So I wouldn’t have been in the stock to begin with, on either side.

I think I said last night DO NOT BE A SHEEP. Point proven again. Cramer makes many millions giving this “insight” while his listeners routinely get slaughtered, and I make pennies on a personal blog expressing amateur opinions. Such is life.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | Leave a Comment

Fast Money “Trading School” - Dollar Cost Average

June 24, 2008 11:02 AM

Here is some “great” advice from a Fast Money “Trading School” spot on CNBC - Dollar Cost Average. Just simply buy more when it plunges and you will eventually come out ahead. Sounds simple. One problem, it is HORRIBLE advice. You do not buy more when you are WRONG. When you are wrong, you exit and wait, period. This is the type of advice from the Talking Heads that makes me cringe. This philosophy is good for only one set of people, people that have zero clue as to what they are doing. This begs the question, if you have no idea what you are doing, then why are you trading to begin with? if you do not know what you are doing buy mutual funds, do NOT trade. The professionals WILL take your money.

Do you see why I do this site. To help people avoid horrible advice like this. If you are wrong, then you are wrong. Throwing more money blindly at a mistake has to be the dumbest advice in investment history. If you are going to follow this nonsense, please just put all of your money in a bag and email me for my address. Then, send it Fedex. Morning delivery would be nice. Why give your money to some rich kid on Wall Street when you can just as easily give it to me?. I am still startled that this is “trading school”. It is ANTI trading school. There is not one trader alive with more than 12 cents that would give that advice. Unbelievable.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Fast Money | 1 Comment

Fast Money Boys Were Wildly Bullish Thursday Night. Result: Market Plunges

June 7, 2008 3:24 PM

Here is some commentary from Fast Money Thursday night. Guy Adami said the S&P 500 would blow through resistance and commodities and equities were on the move again higher. Jeff Macke also said that the markets were ready for a move higher. Pete Najarian couldn’t account for the huge move up.

Exactly. The huge move up was not warranted by either the charts nor economic reality. This is why I posted after the move that I was “skeptical - at best - of any move higher.” and repeatedly kept saying “I don’t like the lows, I don’t like the lows”. The result was down 400 points right after they were all screaming and raging bulls. More comedy, per usual. That is why I have repeatedly warned against watching TV shows for market advice for anything but entertainment.

Most of what they all have to say should be crumpled into a nice tight ball and swished.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Fast Money | Leave a Comment

Homebuilders Down 20% Since March 25th Call That “Cramer Was Wrong”

June 7, 2008 2:15 PM

On March 25th, right after Cramer (and probably Fast Money, but not sure) was saying buy, buy, buy home-builders - we stated wrong - they are going lower. XHB was $23.38 that day and now is $18.81 and I believe headed far lower. The Toll CEO recently came out and said that housing was in a “depression”. Thanks for that insight as I could never have guessed that on my own. Housing and home-building is going lower, period. There are 1.1 million homes currently in foreclosure and another 3 million currently “at least” 1 month behind. All statistics related to housing are at record worse levels, both in numbers and percentages.

The call to avoid/sell home-builders and anything housing related was from a macro view. I do not often make calls based on a macro view and generally let the market tell me who is right and wrong - but sometimes the evidence is so overwhelming that it cannot be ignored. The numbers simply told a very compelling picture of big, big problems ahead. And it isn’t even close to over.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Talking Heads | Leave a Comment

StockBlade Call On March 25th Revisited: “Cramer Is Dead Wrong. Housing And Homebuilders Are Going LOWER”

May 9, 2008 11:26 PM

Not often will you see a site come out the SAME day as Cramer and say he is dead wrong. We do it often. On March 25th (you can search the post), we said Cramer is dead wrong, housing and homebuilders are going lower, this was nothing more than a short covering rally. Homebuilders have only fallen about 10% since, but more than 15% off the recent high. Down 10% is a good call, last I checked.

Then again, if you are long AEM on Cramer’s call to “buy more” the day after it’s high and we said the stock was a SHORT…you would be down 20%…and counting. Or up 20% if you had listened to us and shorted it. So maybe “only” down 10% a month on Mad Money is good, not sure.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer | Leave a Comment

MSN Money’s Jubak: Our Review Of His Current Picks

May 4, 2008 2:05 PM

I think Jim Jubak is a rather reasonable guy with some sound advice and worth reading. This may sound odd from me, as i normally blast virtually all of the talking heads as complete nonsense and feed off market chasers who eventually get stuck holding the last card in a house of cards.

But , my opinion of Jubak is someone who is measured and reasonable. Therefore, let’s look at his picks.

CHK: He added CHK on 04/22/08 at $53.68. I said long CHK on March 26th just above $44.00, so StockBlade is way ahead of the game on this call. I also said CAUTION CHK on after the close 04/28 and it fell. I had just posted on CHK that sideways appears likely here.

USB: US Bancorp deserves some caution here as it needs to clear Friday’s high to be long up here, same as many stocks. If it slides down on no news, the range that is likely to be bought is probably just above $33.00. There are two numbers that I consider SB must hold numbers to be long, $30.19 and $31.16.

CGC: Well, Jubak is getting torched a bit on his call to buy Kinross Gold Corp.on 04/04/08 at $23.36, down 18.66% in less than a month. If you want to be long any gold plays or this stock, the trade on CGC is long right here with a hard stop below $18.00. While this appears to be a far better value than AEM, all of these gold stocks are at least mini bubbles and are trades and NOT investments, IMO.

FCX: Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold was added on 02/26/08 at $100.32 and he is up 8.8%. Ok, not great considering the volatility in these stocks. There are 2 SB numbers to be long FCX, $82.60 and $93.00. I am not a fan of it up here as there will probably be shorts under the high.

EXC: Exelon was added on 01/15/08 at $$84.61 and he is up 1.71%. Just above a money market return, so not great. The reason that the stock is trading sideways here as it has to clear the high to be long up here. It is likely to try and hold $81.61 on any checkdowns. The chart is mixed here, at best.

ITRI: Itron was added on 12/21/07 at $93.36 and is up 4.48% since. Considering the apparent risk in this stock, that is not good. It is in somewhat of a downtrend, trying to hold the $90 area. I do not know enough about the company to have much of an opinion.

ENB: Enbridge Networks was added on 12/18/07 at $38.32 for a gain of 6.97%. Not bad as the risk seems reasonable. However, it has reversed off the high area 3 times, so it is shaky here, at best. The SB number to be long ENB is $37.92.

PCL: Plum creek Timber was added on 11/16/07 at $43.22 and is down 3.63%. I am not a fan of this space because of the housing crisis. Home building is in a multi-year downward spiral i believe, and there is simply no reason to be long this from a macro look. The charts say it has to clear $44.71 up here to be long and even then $47 area is a likely short. It has to hold $37.65 to be long. Therefore, the stock has traded between those two numbers for over 2 months.

RYN: Rayonier was added on 11/09/07 at $46.02 and is down 6.56%. This is a similar space as PCL as it related to real estate. I don’t like it, and do not want any part of it. With that said, there are two numbers to be long the stock, $35.36 and $38.86. But I am NOT a fan of anything related to the U.S consumer and definitely not housing.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Jubak | Leave a Comment

This Is Why I Do Not Like To Watch Fast Money/Cramer

April 30, 2008 9:00 PM

I feel I need to watch Fast Money and Cramer periodically so I can comment on (read SAVE their listeners) stocks they are yelling bull on. Of course, Fast Money is saying long C, long the market, Dennis Gartmen saying market is going higher, bla bla bla. The reason that I would rather NOT watch it is that it skews what I see. People on TV making millions, add in a famous trader, and then mix in some Cramer (bull), and I begin to doubt myself sometimes.

But as StockBlade readers have seen, my thoughts are generally correct, and they are wrong more often than not, IMO.

They can yell their bull until they turn blue, my position does NOT change here. CAUTION is in order until we clear today’s high.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under Cramer, Fast Money | Leave a Comment

AEM: The Falling Knife Continues, Cramerica Is Geting Crushed, StockBlade Readers Win Yet Again

April 29, 2008 11:24 PM

Our favorite whipping boy Cramer stock AEM was hammered yet again today, settling at $58.50, down a mere $25 off it’s high when Cramer told a caller to “buy more” when he was down off the high. I had posted back then, “buy more??? it is a SHORT”. StockBlade is crushing Cramerica, yet again. I said back then that I felt sorry for the caller as I saw the stock was in big trouble and have repeatedly warned to avoid it.

He get’s millions for doing a gimmick show, I give readers REAL insight and make pennies….such is life. I wish EVERY Mad Money listener would check our site before making a Cramer trade/investment….but I can’t save the world.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under AEM, Cramer | Leave a Comment

We Haven’t Paid Much Attention To Cramer and the Fast Money Boys Lately

April 17, 2008 11:38 PM

Sorry, we haven’t paid much attention to Cramer and Fast Money lately to see if they are leading more sheep over a steep cliff. Like I mentioned, if someone would like a second opinion on one of their picks, post it. It is tiresome to watch the shows, but we do try and “save” a few people from getting slaughtered when we can. I could be wrong on the timing, but if i recall, Cramer was raging his bull on ONLY 3 tech stocks late last year….and i think they were GOOG, AAPL and RIMM. I know one was AAPl for sure. They all fell a mere 40% off their highs before recently recovering some of those losses. I agree with Cramer’s statement that “pigs get slaughtered” but so do most of his listeners because they blindly chase…