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Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real Strength

August 27, 2008 9:30 AM

Opening in the 1272-1273 range is actually good to be long. An open much higher would likely be sold. Be careful up top near 1285.50. We would have to clear that in order to make a run at 1302. I doubt we will challenge 1285 today, but anything is possible. The early action may be a grind until the SMA’s catch up.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 76 Comments 

Market Open: 1263.25 Early Low

August 26, 2008 9:43 AM

I mentioned yesterday that 1263.25 was likely the next level to hold. It is the early low. We need to reverse off this low with some force and take out 1272.25 to the upside to possibly put in a low as I see things.

I am long at 1268.50 early on, but we have to clear 1272.25.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 71 Comments 

Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important

August 25, 2008 9:30 AM

The open is 1285. 1282.75 is “reasonably” important. In addition, the market may try and bounce if we make a reversal low. Existing Home Sales 30 mins in. This is likely to be a difficult day to trade. The high should be near 1290 based on trends opening in this range. Friday’s high is key. We would have to clear that high and HOLD it to advance.

Closing Recap: Yes, it was a difficult day to trade IF you did NOT follow my gap rules - like I didn’t. I was convinced the market would try and reverse near 1275 and was long and got smoked there. I then reversed course and went short. I then got head faked off the initial low and was long above it. The bottom line is this. There was ONE trade and ONE trade only today if you follow my gap rules. The gap was SOLD. Period. When a gap down is sold, do NOT try and pick a bottom - ever.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 74 Comments 

Market Open: Watch The Gap Reaction

August 22, 2008 9:26 AM

We are going to gap higher at the open. Watch the gap reaction. If the gap is bought early, we shoould move up most, if not all, of the day. if the open is bought I believe we will close at or near, the high of the day. There is nothing to stop the move higher today that I see. We will likely have a resistance issue up near 1294. 1302.50 should be a lid for today. If we get above that shorts may panic. I am long before the open at 1285.50. That’s generally very unwise, but I am convinced we are going higher, but it is possible we may check down early before making a big push as soon as it checks down.  

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 55 Comments 

Market Open: 1263.25 and 1266 Early, First 5 Mins Was Bought

August 21, 2008 9:37 AM

I believe we have to reverse early, most likely in the first 30 minutes. If we cannot, then we are likely in trouble. Once again watch the gap. If the gap is sold, unlike yesterday, then we will have a firm high for the day to be sold against. Yesterday the open was bought and then sold down to make a low. Those types of actions are far more difficult and creates choppy trade. The first test will be 1260.50. If open here and take that out, the market HAS to reverse and take out the open high, as I view things, or we may finally get the big down day I have been looking for.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 56 Comments 

Early Market Update: It’s All About The Close

August 20, 2008 10:35 AM

All that matters today is the close. We have made a decent low and decent opening high early on. It appears that if we clear the opening high here we may go straight up.

1:00 Update: We did shoot straight up once we cleared the opening high, but backed off a new high of 1276.75. We now have a firm low and firm high…. one of them will likely clear before days end.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | Leave a Comment 

Market Open 1297: We Could Break Either Way, Watch Out For Reversal

August 15, 2008 9:31 AM

If we clear yesterday’s high I believe we HAVE to clear 08/11 high or the market may be in trouble and may signal a top. There is no trade at the open as I see things. Need to wait this out. Commodities are plunging this morning. This is a red flag IMO as traders believe the world is heading into a recession and the stock market is ignoring it - for now.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 65 Comments 

Watch The Gap Reaction Here

August 14, 2008 9:28 AM

I mentioned that I would like to see a lower low and reverse as I did not like Thursday’s low, at all. 5 minutes before the open we are about 1277. Yesterday’s low was 1274.25. If we are going to reverse this, it is likely to happen early, but could happen at any time. Obviously if we clear Friday’s low, then BIG problems are likely. If that happens today, which I find unlikely, we would have to IMMEDIATELY reverse and make a run to positive or the market should retest 1200.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 42 Comments 

Futures: Low 1270’s Should Be Lid If We Get There

August 13, 2008 9:11 AM

I believe Friday’s low should be a firm lid here on selling. That was about 1262. Obviously if we cleared that today, all hell is likely to break loose, but that seems unlikely. If we get in the low 1270’s early, watch out for a reversal. If we get there late in the day, it seems less likely. If we get in that area late, the reversal attempt would likely come tomorrow. If we get below Friday’s low, it appears that we have to reverse early on. If we cannot, then pressure could build late.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 38 Comments 

Market Open About 1301

August 12, 2008 9:32 AM

I believe the high will “likely” be reached early on today. I doubt we will clear 1305 or so to the upside here, we will see.

Written by Tom@StockBlade.com · Filed Under SP Futures | 73 Comments 

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