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Market Recap: It Closed At The Exact Low As I Mentioned At The Open

June 11, 2008 9:42 PM

movietake.jpgThe market was a typical gap trend day down. I warned at the open that if we cleared Monday’s lows that we should close at the low of the day, and that is exactly what happened. The only reason the market didn’t go down much farther was that the Dow low did not clear until less than 10 minutes before the close. It bounced just above 12100 over and over and was finally taken out, but too late to do any real damage. If the market would have been open another hour I believe the losses on the day could have easily doubled.

Once again, if we open higher tomorrow, it is a nonsense relief bounce, and the odds of any lasting strength would be very slim, IMO. We HAVE to make a new low to put in a floor, IMO. CPI is Friday. If that is ugly, I have no idea what will happen, but my first, second and third guess would be not good.

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Not Sure Where This Rally Came From Today

April 24, 2008 9:49 PM

I need to review some stuff tonight and see exactly where this rally came from today as it didn’t seem to make much sense. News was not great, to say the least, chart was very mixed at best…and yet we moved higher. Surprised me. I did mention early the other day that I was not sure of the market direction so really did not have an opinion either way…but still, it was suprising. My guess is the dollar gaining some strength and oil coming off it’s highs gave us a small relief rally…but still does not make much sense.

We have not had a short or long term reversal off a high however, andI I am ALWAYS skeptical of any highs or lows that are not clearly rejected.

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After The Bell: AAPL beats Big, But Outlook Was Weak

April 23, 2008 10:42 PM

I think the market really wanted to see what AAPl had to say to try and move higher here. They blew out the number, but profit forecast was rather weak. The market never reversed off any highs… and that is why the market has only been slowly sliding. There are reversal points in financials above however, as I warned, and that has  held the market from going higher.

With all that said, we still have a LOT of earnings to get through for some decent clarity of direction here. I still think the market is dramatically underestimating both the longevity and economic severity of the housing crisis however. Therefore, this market is still a buy the dips and sell the rips…as I mentioned about a billion times.

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Friday’s Recap: I Warned Pre-Open Do Not Go Long On Anything

April 14, 2008 6:57 AM

Well, I was right on target overall. I said preopen to not go long on anything. I also repeatedly said I was VERY skeptical of each new low we made, which all proved correct. It was an odd day though and somewhat difficult to trade. There was no force or real volume behind the moves, it was just a death by a thousand cuts. My guess is that is because of the large number of earnings releases next week. People want to see those numbers. My guess is they really, really do not want to see those numbers however…. More ugly numbers are on the way….

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Intraday Comment’s and Yesterday’s Recap: We Never Cleared Key Support

April 9, 2008 7:24 AM

I mentioned that key June futures support was 1360.25. Yesterday’s low was 1362.25. I also mentioned that any selling wa likely to be mild, and it was. This just doesn’t have the “feel” of earlier that they want to sell into this and take it down. It is likely going to take some very negative news to get the ball rolling down. Yesterday’s home sales were about as ugly as it can get, and still nothing. People are completely wrong that the economy will recover soon however, IMO,  and reality will eventually set in. But that may take some time, possibly months. So do not argue with the tape - but know the tape is likely wrong.

 Open Update: Open flat, caution long near 1373-1374 early on…and we also need to clear 1372.25…looks like a very mixed bag here…bias appears modestly long …if we get much under 1367..could be a little trouble…not sure where we are going yet….

9:43 Not good, we are 1366 and change….we need to get back above 1369 here…If we clear 1360.25. trouble appears very likely…

9:50 Chart is looking weaker rapidly…but we still have several support spots below here as mentioned….so still not sure exactly where we are going yet…but staying down here isn’t good…1362.25 was yesterday’s low…looks like we could challenge that here…but we still have 1360.25 below that….

9:58 Not good….1363.50 thus far….not sure exactly what will happen if we clear 1360.25, but my first and second guess is NOT good…

1:34 This low may hold here….be very careful short unless it clears…Low was 1352.75…It is a little early in the chart to know for certain if it is likely today’s low…or not…

1:46 Looks like if we can clear 1358.50 we could run higher here…but it backed off that big time at 1358.25…Today’s low appears important here…If we get under that, I have no idea how low we will go….My call on 1360.25 was correct at it spiked down 7 points once that cleared… Volume appears modest…so it doesn’t seem like the players are serious about selling this down…yet.

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Correct Call For Today’s Action, Alcoa Misses After The Bell…My Call Today on AAPL….etc.

April 7, 2008 6:41 PM

Well, today played out pretty much as expected…slow drift…slight up bias…said caution as we had to clear the April 2nd high on the Dow (we didn’t) and said extreme caution on AAPL near $160 (high was $159.69). I would like to be perfect, but that’s about as close as I can get……sorry folks… :o)

 Alcoa missed after the bell, but I personally do not see that as a big deal here. People will dismiss that, IMO, as commodities have moved up substantially in the last quarter. More importantly, the market is looking for direction from the financials, and that is coming next week. Everything else will likely be greeted by the market with a yawn. I do believe some  mild “profit taking” (Wall St. code for SELLING) is likely here as everyone wants to see the financials numbers next week…

AAPL should spike lower tomorrow if it clears $155.11. It “could” bounce at $153 early. It it clears that area and holds for an hour or so, then $149 is likely in the cards tomorrow. As mentioned, careful on AAPL here….

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This Week: Slow Grind Likely

April 6, 2008 11:03 PM

The “big” news was out last week, and failed to shake the markets even though the news pointed to a rapidly weakening economy. So now what? This week’s news isn’t as important, so more of the same appears likely. Until the market finally realizes the news WILL get worse, and that reality sinks in their brains, they will refuse to sell, IMO. Most traders are somewhat convinced that we have seen the lows, and if so, the risk of selling outweighs the risk of holding or buying. The market’s are not about reality - they are about relative performance. Money managers get paid to beat their opponents - NOT to make you money. If the market loses 10% and they ONLY lose 5%, they will likely get big bonuses. That is the simple reality of Wall St.

 With that said, this is still a trader’s market, IMO. The economy is getting worse, rapidly, and hope is not something to invest in. Let others hope, take the rally’s and let the “salmon swim upstream” after. 

 The market will likely trade sideways with an upward bias until financials release earnings next week. From what I have seen, we have likely seen FAR less than half of the write-downs - but nobody knows for certain. If that is the case, a bank failure at some point is not out of the question. I have been wondering about Washington Mutual going under for some time…. If Countrywide collapsed and gave customers higher rates, in general….WM has to be under pressure, I would guess. The big drop in WM on huge volume on Friday also “smells” funny… That is why I have mentioned on several occasions that if you want to be long financials, I would STRONGLY consider an ETF to avoid the possibility that you just bought the next Bear.

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Today’s action and Tomorrow….

April 3, 2008 4:26 PM

Well, I called the market early and often…I said about 30 mins in it looked like we had seen the low….and it was….I said if we cleared 1367.25 we would challenge the highs and possibly challenge yesterday’s high…it went all the way to 1378 before backing off….Yesterday’s high was 1380. (This is all the June futures). I was a little surpised at the selling in the last 30 minutes. People are definately leary of tomorrow’s nonfarm number, especially since initial claims came in high this morning….

 The chart is set up to where it could break either way now. It is probably all going to be based on the nonfarm number pre-open. If we clear todays low, trouble is very likely…and 1345 area would seem like a likely target early on. If the number is good, and then take out 1380…I don’t see anything up top thats an issue…and all the way to 1400 seems likely.

We will know pre-open where we stand….

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Todays Market and My Call to be Long CHK

March 24, 2008 9:02 PM

Well, the market played out pretty much how I thought all day….but I warned late in the day in my intraday comments that the futures volume seemed VERY light up top and smelled it rolling over a bit at the close.

 It didn’t seem like selling pressure, but rather a lack of buyers as it sat in a very tight range for over 2 hours before sliding late.

CHK was a free buck on my call to be long today….tomorrow will be a little more dicey. I don’t like it up around $47-$48 for certain. I think there is a general consensus to rotate out of commodities and bonds right now…and that trade will probably last unless the dollar gets crushed again.

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After Hours: Healthcare stocks crushed

March 11, 2008 4:34 AM

Wellpoint (WLP) missed and warned after the bell and all of the healthcare stocks are getting crushed. (WLP-$11 to $54.60). Normally I am not a fan of trusting after hours trades as it is mostly amateurs - but after hours volume is already 2.7 million shares. Obviously not Mom and Pop selling…..

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