Site: I May Let Other Amateur’s Be Guest Writer’s On Here
July 3, 2008 12:36 AM
I have been considering having “guest” writers on here if I find people that know what they are doing, and would like to write periodically. I think people will find it interesting to get another “take” on what they see and how they see it rather than my normal “long above X” commentary. We are all amateurs (or we wouldn’t be here, trust me, lol), so it might be interesting. Personally, I think my “opinions” show that my views are largely correct, but we can always learn from other viewpoints. I will update if and when that happens.
Oil Direction: I Still Smell Trouble
June 17, 2008 11:32 PM
Tomorrow should be a big day for oil and related stocks. I mentioned that I have never attempted to trade oil (and I am not a professionally trained trader), but if we can clear my number of $130.75 that i mentioned before, the rout “should” be on in oil. We have oil inventory tomorrow. If we cannot take out the all time high tomorrow, I smell trouble. The real comedy will be the “news” if oil plunges. Last time I said “if oil clears $130.50 it should trade lower before higher”. It fell to about $122 before reversing. CNBC was on the floor asking traders why oil was plunging on “no news” and they had “no idea”. Uhhhh yeah, they had a firm idea, the chart said so. I thought it was hilarious, but maybe only a market geek would find it funny.
If We Can Clear Today’s High The Market Should Explode Higher
June 17, 2008 11:07 AM
Key word here is IF. I believe if we can clear today’s high, the market is likely to explode the upside, especially if it happens late in the day. 1358.25 has been today’s low on the SP futures and it appears that has to hold as I mentioned in my intraday comments. GS conferance call is going on.
We do have the 1370 area above, but i do not think that area will cause problems if we clear today’s high late in the day. If we clear it early, there is still risk of a reversal - so when it happens - if it happens - is key here.
Bond Call Has Been Wrong - So Far
June 8, 2008 5:33 PM
I warned to get out of bonds because they are trading significantly below inflation. The problem has been that people are ignoring the real inflation and trading off the reported numbers which have been almost universally discarded as grossly inaccurate. How long this can last I am not sure. In addition, I noted that there was an indication of significant fear in the market still as bonds rally on any fall in the market even in the face of skyrocketing oil. This is a massive fear trade and those are generally very temporary.
This outlines the difficulty of making a “macro” view call. The market can, and often is, wrong for a very long period of time. However, with inflation easily over 6% and more likely over 8%, I cannot see any possible logic in buying a 10 year TBill south of 4%. It just doesn’t make any sense.
But that is the risk of making a trade call on a long term view. Long term could take long term to prove correct. But the chart also said to sell bonds, IMO. The problem is the market has more fear than people realize I believe.
Current Views
June 7, 2008 4:53 PM
Here is a summary of our current views on particular sectors of the economy and market. I am not sure you can “trade” it as the markets can be wrong for a very, very long time.
- Economy: Very Negative
- Market: Negative*
- Bonds: Long Term Negative
- Housing: Very Negative
*the market needs to make a fresh rejection of a new low to be long anything
Sorry, I wish reality warranted a different view, but it doesn’t. I have warned for at least a year that I believed housing was going FAR lower - and was correct. I have warned that the fundamentals in the economy are far worse than people realize and data has been rolling in to prove me correct. It would obviously be far easier for me to make the average investor money if things were better. But just as important is capital preservation. In addition, I have to call what I see or believe - good, bad, or ugly.
It reminds me of the last year of watching Kudlow on CNBC. I appreciate the flag waving, go USA mentality, but his comments that the USA will prosper, all is great, etc for the last year are just flat out wrong. Every day for the last year i would watch as a parade of “experts” called bottoms in housing, the economy, the market - you name it. I would sit there and say to myself - you are wrong, you are wrong and you are wrong.
I simply cannot ignore reality or the site would have no value.
Not Yet A Believer In Numbers? Then How Did I Call The Top Of The SP The Same Day It Happened….
May 25, 2008 12:04 AM
The call is not on this site, so I cannot prove it as it was before the site was started. But the night after the SP made it’s high, I sent an email to probably 20 or so co-workers and friends and warned that “the reaction and rejection of the high was the most forceful that I have seen since the Bubble. I believe that this is ominous and could have lasting effects and this could be a long term top. Do not be long on anything until further notice” or something very similar to that. Did i email many of these on other market falls? No. This appeared to me to be far different.
Why did I take the time and trouble to email everyone that night? Because I saw a very strong rejection in price that was reflected in the numbers. I looked back 10 plus years in charts and believed it was the strongest rejection since the Bubble and did not have any matches other than that and it appeared to be a big problem. While news “could” have pushed the markets higher, it was obvious to me that we had possibly reached an area that people were more than willing to sell.
Coincidently, I also called the top on APPL and told a friend of mine who trades AAPL to “short AAPL here at $200″. What did he do? He bought 2,000 shares against my STRONG advice after it fell to $190. It plunged 40% and finally has recovered and he got out even. I need to borrow his rabbit’s foot as he was extremely fortunate.
Point being, outside of strong news to change the dynamics of supply and demand, a trained eye can see what is going on and is reflected in the charts. That will always be the case. Always.
I Called Early Low: If that Is Today’s Low, We Are Going Positive…IF
May 23, 2008 12:07 PM
I called the low and said watch out for a reversal attempt here….bingo…. It is a little early to know yet…but I smell an attempt at finishing the day positive…There are two likely possibilities here…either we will take out todays low late and this may get very, very ugly…or we are going positive…
StockBlade Call Revisited: “We have To Clear 13191 On The Dow”
May 21, 2008 12:10 AM
I mentioned more times than Exxon has billions in profit that we had to clear 13,191 on the Dow to be long up there. it failed, and we are down huge from that area in two days. Dismissing the numbers is a mistake, in general. Know the numbers, know the risks, and limit risk. You may have had a different number than I, or you may not even care about numbers (mistake), but that was my call and has proven correct.
Right now my call is 1383, 1383, 1383. I have said this repeatedly for almost 3 weeks running. We HAVE to clear 1383 to really apply some pressure going forward. Period.
Buffett This Morning: Credit Crisis Is Not Over
May 19, 2008 9:21 AM
Buffet reiterated this morning what I have been screaming for 2 months, the credit crisis is not over and rippling effects will be felt throughout the world. While i think this is reasonably obvious to anyone with a brain larger than a walnut, the market still doesn’t “get it”. If you think the market is “rational” and “well thought”, newsflash, it isn’t. It is driven by greed and fear, nothing more.
Very Weird Day
May 16, 2008 5:34 PM
We made the high in the first 5 minutes and sold down from there. Normally there will be more pressure late following a reversal near the high. Today there wasn’t, which very much surprised me, and probably most everyone. Consumer sentiment was merely the worst in nearly 3 decades…yawn.
As I have said, the optimism in the market has become scary. It will take another big event to shake them up. We are getting recession like data almost daily, and the market seems to think the troubles are behind us. I do not agree, in the least. Consumer credit is the next shoe to drop and will shake up the financials. I just do not know how long before that happens. Consumers are building credit card debt at an alarming rate - and this time, they will not have their home to pay it off.
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Recent Commentary
- Site Update: It Has Been Fun, But Closing It
- Morning Call: Open Sold
- Market Recap: GM News Was Not Really A Deal, Dow Low Cleared Late and Down She Goes
- Morning Call: Open Sold, Dow 7773
- Market Call Revisited: Sell Asia
- Market Recap: Not Good
- Market Update: Doesn’t Look Good, 818 and 826
- Market Recap: Buyers Above 818
- Morning Call: Open Gap Bought
- Market Recap: Buying On A Big Number, Now What?
- Morning Call: Still Uncertainty
- Market View: GM Holds The Cards
- Stock Charts VS Market Charts
- Market Recap: Somewhat Predictable, Low Came Where I Said Was Likely
- Morning Call: Unclear, Risk Is High
- Huge Rally: Now What
- Market Comment: Does News Even Matter?
- Market Recap: Close Day Craziness
Our Mascot Trading Goal: Ferrari 599
