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Site Update: It Has Been Fun, But Closing It

Hello everyone. I am going to shut down the site as I just do not have the time to put into it and I have done the site just for fun anyhow - and the bear market makes it not fun, to say the least. I do not have many readers anyhow, so doubt it matters much, lol. Anyhow, I hope my readers found the site interesting and God Bless and good luck.

Morning Call: Open Sold

I said yesterday that I am going to take a break from watching the markets on a daily basis and still am. But couldn’t help myself this morning to watch the comedy of a higher open. Why even one person was long near today’s open high is beyond my possible comprehension. At any rate, it is possible we have already seen today’s high. In fact it is probably likely. New lows and a gap higher at the open the next day and people are long? Ha.

12:18 EST Update I forget to mention that “unless” we clear 747. We cleared that later. Today is now far different. We have a low of 741 and a high of 773. If one of those clears in the last hour… all hell is going to break loose, most likely.

Market Recap: GM News Was Not Really A Deal, Dow Low Cleared Late and Down She Goes

Well, I said near the open that holding the Dow low by pennies seemed a bit fake. Then there was swirling news about a possible GM deal on a bailout and the market spiked. Then, once people realized that there really was no deal, that temporary pop didn’t last. I just do understand how they can possibly let GM go under in with this economy, but whatever.

Anyhow, I smelled a late selloff and said “my first, second and third guess here is a closing rout”. Pretty much what happened. No deal on GM was the last straw. The 2002 SP low has cleared as well. Once 768 cleared the selling really got going into the close. The 2002 Dow low was 7177. We may bounce above that, but the more everyone talks about “dow 6000″, the more it may come true. I said before that I agree with Cramer in that if GM fails Dow 6000 is probably a given. Amazing they would let this happen.

Anyhow, I am going to take a break from watching the markets on a daily basis until this settles down. I just have no interest in reading about bad news every day. It simply isn’t fun. It also is not fun trying to catch a plunging market and trying to pick a temporary bottom for a short covering rally.

I have said about 100 times that almost all, if not all, of the huge moves we have seen have come in bear markets and never last. Shorts cover on any whiff of a possible bottom and it goes crazy. I also said that history has a weird way of repeating itself in the markets and I would side with history.

Anyhow, good luck with this if you watch it on a daily basis, you will need it, lol. I will be on once a while, but daily isn’t going to happen. It just isn’t fun anymore and I started this site for FUN.

Morning Call: Open Sold, Dow 7773

We are getting very close to the Dow low as it is currently 7784. It appears that the low will be taken out. This appears to be a gap trend day down. If we did not have the Dow low below, I would say definately. If the Dow low is taken out, we would have to close positive in order to maybe try and stop the selling, but I find it very unlikely.

If we clear the low, people long better be very, very careful. There is nothing to stop this except maybe the 2002 low of 768 on the SP. That “may hold”. I have long asked the simple question “why are we above the 2002 lows?”. The economy is in far worse shape so I simply see no logical explanation why we are this high. So I remain very skeptical of any strength.

11:57 Update: Dow low has held - thus far - by less than one point. I have no idea what will happen now. This seems a bit fake to me, but we will see. We also have the 2002 SP low of 768 that is probably important. The true direction is likely to come into the close today.

I was watching Cramer last night, which I rarely do, and man was he negative on tech. Would have been a bit better if he was negative months ago obviously, but he tries to call things as he sees them I believe. So have to give him credit for that.  He has a lot of critics, but I honestly think he actually tries to help people. Whether he does, I am not sure.

Market Call Revisited: Sell Asia

I said in this post on Nov. 5th to sell Asia especially the Nikkei and to “wake me when it goes below 8000″. It was 9521 then. Let’s see, the Nikkei is at 7976 as of the last night. Therefore, I thought I would “wake up” and take another look. To say that I am still skeptical is an understatement. But I do not look at the Nikkei charts and really have no interest in doing so. 6994 needs to hold, IMO. But it is obviously far above that.

At any rate, it has fallen about 15% from that call, and we likely will see 20%  tonight AND it never approached 9521 again as it fell the next day. Sometimes common sense does prevail in the markets. Not often, but once in a while. I guess I was just lucky once again. Nobody is right all the time and i am just some average joe “typing opinions out of his garage” as I like to say. But at some point you have to use common sense. Up 30% off the low in a week? I mean come on. That was short covering driven on a massive scale. Those that bought at 9521 were far less than wise.

Market Recap: Not Good

Well, I said that if we cleared 826 then 818 would be put into question and yesterday would be “off the board”. 826 cleared, it tried to reverse late and ran up to about 838. I was long at about 830 and knew we had to close positive on the day. I should have exited with a profit, but was going for the “close day” homerun. We had 45 minutes left, so positive was still possible, and I knew it would likely break big - one way or another. Once again, I got the other. You have to be correct on close days. Win big or lose big, there generally is little if anything in between.

At any rate, I am not sure were we are going now, but today was not good. New lows on the SP, but we still have the Dow low left at 7773. That is basically all that is left to defend here, other than the 2002 low of 768 on the SP. Risk is still very high, rather obviously. GM has to get the bailout or I see little, if any, chance of any low holding. I believe it is really as simple as that. Unfortunately, guessing on what Congress will do on that is going to be difficult, at best.

At least I was correct that yesterday’s move higher “just didn’t feel right”. The conviction just didn’t feel like it was there. No real explanation other than that.

All I know is I wish Obama was president as in right now. Letting GM fail is a big, big mistake, IMO, and he has stated he supports a bailout.  I 100% agree with this. I understand all the reasoning with the critics - they may fail anyhow, bad management, etc. etc.. I get all that. But failing in 2 years is a LOT better than failing now. The economy may be far better off then and they may make it. They need to get off this ideology and be pragmatic about this. If GM fails, we are going to likely see 10% unemployment. If $25 billion will keep all three afloat for 2 years or more, they have to do it. The country will lose a ton of that in lost sales taxes and unemployment benefits alone. I just don’t get it. I dislike bailouts as much as anyone. But at some point, you have to forget ideaology and just say - which outcome is worse?

The troubling part of the arguing over GM and the Big Three is this. Everyone is a skeptic about the motives of anyone that supports a bailout. Namely a payback for union support. When are we going to simply get back to doing what is in the nation’s best interest? Isn’t it possible that Obama supporting a bailout is because he is simply being pragmatic about whether allowing GM to fail is good or not? People need to stop being so skeptical about everything.  I just think any reasonable person has to conclude that it is worth $25 billion to maybe keep the Big Three afloat. Just add up the potential lost tax revenue, the unemployment benefits, etc, etc. They need to put politics aside here and make prudent choices. At some point, the big picture has to come into play. Whether you supported Obama or not, whether a democrat or republican, the economic issues facing the country right now are the worst since the depression, IMO, and now is not a time for politics.

Market Update: Doesn’t Look Good, 818 and 826

It just tried to reverse and failed at 830. It is possible it could reverse above 826, yesterday’s low. If 826 clears then traders will likely get very nervous whether 818 can hold today. Like I mentioned last night, yesterday just did not “feel” convincing, and it made no intraday low.

The rest of the day may get very interesting, and possibly very volatile. If we clear 818 the market is probably in big trouble today. It just seems unlikely they are going to plunge this until GM is resolved, but it certainly is possible.

The way I view the market is if we clear 826, then yesterday did not matter - it is taken off the board. What that means is we once again need to close the day positive for it to have any meaning, IMO. So 826 is important here, as I see things.

Market Recap: Buyers Above 818

I mentioned today that there should be buyers above 818 and there was. The only thing I did not like is that it never made a firm low on the day. This was simply buying above 818, simple as that. The only question has been, can they hold 818 and if so, how low before there are buyers. 826 was today’s low, the risk/reward is simply too compelling to ignore at that level. This is why I said days ago that I wanted to wait it out and be long above 818. I was not around late today, so did not have the chance.

At any rate, today was a bit unconvincing. Not sure what to make of that other than volume may continue to be very low until the GM issue is settled, one way or another. It just doesn’t seem like they will take this down with force until they get the news. I said early on that “today likely will be like a fed day” with shorts on the sidelines until the news breaks. The chart clearly looks very similar to a fed day. This appears to be far more like a lack of shorts than actual conviction of buying. Actual buying we should have seen a forceful move off a low. We did into the close, kinda, but that is because it was a “close day” and if they sniff positive, shorts will cover at the close. The move just looks a little shaky to me.

Today’s low is likely important now, even though it never made a clear low on an intraday chart. I still believe however the market will probably be in a holding pattern until congress decides what to do with the Big Three. We will see.

Update: I looked at the volume and it appears that the volume was actually pretty good but most of the volume came in the last hour. Not surprising as I said - close day.  There is something about this move today that just doesn’t feel right. Maybe I am getting used to huge powerful moves that seem convincing. It didn’t feel like that today.

Morning Call: Open Gap Bought

The gap down this morning was bought. This appears to be a trend day higher, thus far. I said yesterday that I expected a gap down today to be bought. Exactly what happened at the open. Currently it made a reversal off the high, but this is likely more sma related. The moving averages may slow the advance down early today and strength will likely grow with time as long as this low holds. This is what i consider a close day. Therefore, if this low holds, I expect that the high will not be seen until the last 15 minutes of the day.

11:54 update: I just looked at the chart again. The open low had cleared and we do not have a firm low, as I view the markets. This is a little more shaky than it appeared at first glance. This is a close day however, and we will likely see a move - one way or another- into the close. We have to close positive. My guess is here the shorts will remain on the sidelines until GM is resolved, one way or another. So we may have one sided trade today to the long side, I am not sure. I still believe the market is in a holding pattern until GM is resolved. The clear problem is that any GM news may come out when the market is not open. The shorts or longs, depending on how it goes, will likely get crushed. So I expect more days of very low volume.

Market Recap: Buying On A Big Number, Now What?

Well, the market was all over the place today. Was far less predictable than Friday, for certain. The lows strongly appeared nothing more than buying on a “big number” 850, and simply was not very belieavable. I am still very skeptical of the market unless we make a firm low above 818, which is probably likely. They certainly will try. Therefore, if we gap down tomorrow, there should be buyers. If we clear today’s low, then it will be what I personally consider a “close day” and will likely get very volatile into the close - one way or another.

There are a lot of issues to be concerned with right now, obviously. Citi apparently is going to lay off another 50,000. This is just brutal. I have got to the point lately that I literally may just stop watching the market again for a while. The economic news that we get on a daily basis would make Santa Claus grumpy, and I have to look at it everyday to keep up, lol. It is just getting very tiresome. This would be a LOT more fun if we had good news after good news and buying checkdowns made sense. Watching and reading bad news is really not that enjoyable, lol. I need a new hobby maybe. Perhaps cooking or something.

On another note, I would not get concerned about the change in leadership. People tend to look at the market’s poor performance when the Democrats control all three houses. After some thought, I do not agree that it matters. In fact, short term, I believe it is a net positive. The reason for this is simple - “more of the same” would have likely dashed many hopes of well, something different and better.  I think more doom and gloom would have set in. And in many ways, the economy is a self fulfilling prohecy. So hope is important. The reason I believe that history says it is not good for the markets is that they probably took control of all three because of an economy already heading south. Like they say at election time, it’s the economy stupid. So, my personal view is that these concerns are grossly over stated and Democrats taking control of the white house is very likely a positive. The economy is all that matters. Whether the change in leadership can turn it around and how soon is the issue. This will likely take a long time to fix as I see things.

Anyhow, back to the market. Tomorrow “might” be a key day. It really will depend on whether we open up or down. I would consider a gap down to maybe be a positive, depending on what happens. If we open slightly positive, I will remain very skeptical.  If we open higher, my guess is it will likely be short lived. We have no firm lows on either intraday or daily charts all the way to the low of 818. If it goes up, then it does, but once again they will be leaving the port without me.

Lastly, I still believe that GM will dictate the direction here, possibly short and long term. If they file bankruptcy then I think the market and very likely the economy is in serious trouble. The prudent thing may be to wait this out and see if they get money or do not. I think it is rather obvious that they cannot make it without a bailout. I personally doubt any of the three can. I am taking a wild guess that a few more million people out of work is probably not a good thing. I feel sorry for the workers if that happens as it certainly is not their fault. This is a direct result of poor management for at least two decades. So hopefully they all can survive somehow. We will see.  Boy, I am starting to almost sound like a Democrat, lol.

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