If Not For The Coming Release Of Iphone 3G, AAPL would be a short right here.
April 30, 2008 9:05 PM
If not for the Iphone coming release and the possible applehead euphoria, Apple would be a short at $175 with a hard stop above $180. Be very cautious long here, at the very least. If it does sell down here, and you want to be long, the $152 area probably won’t easily be exceeded, and $149.25 is likely to hold.
This Is Why I Do Not Like To Watch Fast Money/Cramer
April 30, 2008 9:00 PM
I feel I need to watch Fast Money and Cramer periodically so I can comment on (read SAVE their listeners) stocks they are yelling bull on. Of course, Fast Money is saying long C, long the market, Dennis Gartmen saying market is going higher, bla bla bla. The reason that I would rather NOT watch it is that it skews what I see. People on TV making millions, add in a famous trader, and then mix in some Cramer (bull), and I begin to doubt myself sometimes.
But as StockBlade readers have seen, my thoughts are generally correct, and they are wrong more often than not, IMO.
They can yell their bull until they turn blue, my position does NOT change here. CAUTION is in order until we clear today’s high.
Today’s Action In Two Words, NOT GOOD…Extreme Caution Until Further Notice
April 30, 2008 5:07 PM
Caution on virtually everything is in order. Making a new recent high and reversing and finishing negative appears to be big trouble. Do not go long on almost anything unless we get on top of today’s high. Today is why I never trade Fed day - I would have got whipsawed BIG time. Way up, then way down, in a very short period of time. I thought we would not go negative, so expected to close at the high…but negative we went… It just seemed like too far to go down to get there….I was right that if we cleared 1394, trouble was very likely….and could go negative, and we did. But still, would have been extremely difficult to trade it. Best to let others gamble on days like this and wait for clarity with firm numbers.
Anyhow, EXTREME caution on anything long….this looks like trouble….IMO. 1370 area should try and hold on any initial selling…..If that doesnt hold we “might try” and hold 1360 range. But being long the market here is less than wise…IMO.
Fed: .25 Cut As Expected, We Cleared Monday’s High, The Close is KEY Here…. Most Probable Now: We Will Close At The High, Or Negative, IMO
April 30, 2008 2:29 PM
We should either close at the high of the day or close negative. Why we are going higher is puzzling….the statement was not that great….IMO. It is possible traders are still going over the statement, so I am not 100% convinced of direction yet….. If we get negative into the close, this could get ugly….If we are not going negative, we should close at the high of the day, IMO. But that is how new highs days USUALLY play out…not always…
I know that isn’t much help. sorry….but trading post Fed is VERY difficult unless we have CLEAR direction and volume…
Close Update: This is why I never trade Fed day, or very rarely, and only if I am certain. Once we cleared Monday’s high, it appeared we were going to push higher all day. Wrong. It immediately sold down and we went negative. While I posted that we were either going to close at the high or go negative, it seemed unlikely that the Dow would lose 150 that quickly…so I wrongly assumed we would push higher. Fed days can be very erratic. They release the news…then traders read and digest the comments…then the dollar moves…etc. etc…. Point being, If I had had tried to trade today, I would likely have been crushed as I did not think we would make it to negative.
If We Are Going Up Post-Fed XLF HAS To Lead…Or Big Trouble Is Likely…
April 30, 2008 1:42 PM
I am not sure which way we are going post Fed - and I am guessing nobody does yet. If we do have a big rally, financials HAVE to lead the way. As I have mentioned, there is massive short interest in that sector, and if they cover, it would explode. I am not saying there WILL be a huge rally, but the charts certainly say it is possible here. If the financials rally, then the commodities will lag, and vice versa….the statement and how the dollar goes is the key… If financials cannot rally…the market is in trouble……IMO…
Laslty if we DO rally….we should close at the high of the day…so if we are obviously in rally mode after, do not take profits, we will close at the days high. IF, IF, IF….. We will know SOON…. Let’s get this going…
Flat All Day Is Likely Until Fed At 2:15, But Shorts Will be Cautious Prior…
April 30, 2008 9:31 AM
The chart is very mixed at the open, and no movement is likely until the Fed announces at 2:15. Most expect .25 cut. I am not certain what the reaction will be after. We will see. Avoid Monday’s high, obviously. other than that, we might stop above yesterday’s low to the downside, but I am not a huge fan of that low.
Join Us For Fed Day Tomorrow, Should Be Interesting
April 30, 2008 12:23 AM
We will be provide “live” insights as to what we see once the Fed announces tomorrow. It should get very interesting, very quickly. Careful long the market unless we clear Monday’s high, but even then, we will need to see where we are going. The rate cuts are at or near an end, and that false support for the market will be gone, and we will see the real resolve of the market if they want to take this higher - or not.
AEM: The Falling Knife Continues, Cramerica Is Geting Crushed, StockBlade Readers Win Yet Again
April 29, 2008 11:24 PM
Our favorite whipping boy Cramer stock AEM was hammered yet again today, settling at $58.50, down a mere $25 off it’s high when Cramer told a caller to “buy more” when he was down off the high. I had posted back then, “buy more??? it is a SHORT”. StockBlade is crushing Cramerica, yet again. I said back then that I felt sorry for the caller as I saw the stock was in big trouble and have repeatedly warned to avoid it.
He get’s millions for doing a gimmick show, I give readers REAL insight and make pennies….such is life. I wish EVERY Mad Money listener would check our site before making a Cramer trade/investment….but I can’t save the world.
Caution on CHK And WLT Proved Correct Call, They Both Got Hammered
April 29, 2008 10:35 PM
As i said last night “if not for the Fed meeting coming, both CHK and WLT should be a short right here”. Both got hammered today. Should have just made the call to short it with a hard stop at the highs as I smelled trouble. My only concern was the fed meeting and the market direction is not certain after, and I like to make calls where i believe there is a high degree of probability. I have repeatedly said to avoid WLT here in the last 3 days however, and that call proved correct. WLT was down 4.84% and CHK down 4.55%. Not a bad day’s “work” as that is higher than an entire YEAR return in a money market…. in about 8 hours…..
While it is difficult to know the direction here, extreme caution is in order. We have to clear Monday’s high in the SP to be long the market here, and the highs on both CHK and WLT are an issue, until proven otherwise. WLT has earnings May 1, so best to let that play out first, IMO.
If we sell down after the Fed, it looks like we need to clear the 1370 area to the downside to put pressure on the market. I will update once I see the reaction.
Morning Call: Mixed Bias, Careful long near 1399 early…. Consumer Confidence at 10:00
April 29, 2008 9:33 AM
The charts are mixed this morning. Opening here could be trouble unless we hold here and move up. Careful long near 1399 early…
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Recent Commentary
- Market Recap: Called Today’s Action On The Money Almost Literally
- Market Update: My Note On Caution at 1285 Has Proved Correct Thus Far
- Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real Strength
- Morning Call: Futures Move Higher On Durable Goods
- FDIC Report: 117 Financial Institutions In Trouble, One Big Problem, I Do Not Believe It
- Consumer Confidence Up? This Is Clearly An Indictment On Public Education
- Market Direction: While The Chart Still Says Long….
- Market Recap: 1261 Held once Again
- Market Update: Market Was Bought Early, 3:00 EST Is Likely Key
- Market Open: 1263.25 Early Low
- Morning Call: Futures Flat, New Home Sales At 10:00, FOMC Minutes Late
- Market Recap: My Gap Rule Ruled The Day
- Market Update: 1261 Should Hold - If Not We May See Panic
- Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important
- Morning Call: Decision Time
- Market Update: Typical Trend Day Higher Early As Predicted, Now The Outcome Is Clearly In Doubt
- Market Open: Watch The Gap Reaction
- Morning Call: Futures Up, Long All CheckDowns Early Should Be Play
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