I called Today On The Money Almost Exactly

March 31, 2008 7:50 PM

I called today exactly early on. It went to the 1330 area on the futures…as I mentioned hours earlier…backed off…and never saw it again. I said careful long early pre-open…it sold down to just below yesterday’s low before moving up…and backed off where I said…That was the end of the month and end of quarter. Hard to say what will happen from here. But I have made it clear many times, history strongly suggests we have not seen the bottom, regardless of the talking head hype.

Lehman has caused some concern after hours in that they sold 3 million shares of preferred to raise money. While that isn’t a reason for the market to panic, it certainly does raise questions. Did they need the money because of liquidity issues…. I would say most probably yes. I don’t think it is a huge issue for now….as they did raise the money.

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Careful Long here..

March 31, 2008 11:33 AM

We made a reversal off the high at 1330.50…I said early today that I “smelled 1330…bingo. This could break either way here…. It looks like if we clear the high we should accelrate to the upside here…

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Once Again, If We Clear Friday’s Low, Then The Close Is Key…

March 31, 2008 6:13 AM

If we clear Friday’s low today, one again be careful of a last second countrend trade if we sniff positive… If we open positive and do not clear Friday’s low, I am very skeptical of the sustainability of any move higher forward…

9:08 EST Futures still relatively flat. Some markets overseas got hammered. NIKKEI closed - 2.3%, FTSE is pretty flat currently… Europe had big inflation numbers…. European Downgrades of UBS and Morgan Stanley …. I always LOVE downgrades after stocks have dropped 50% plus. Once again, thanks for your timely professional advice…ha.

9:47 Reversal off the low…we need to hold this low of 1313.50 today…careful around 1326…

10:41 It only made it to 1323.50. The low.high here appears important. If we can hold the low and clear the high, it looks like we could make a run to 1330 area…it could back off 1326 range…but if we get any volume…I would guess 1330 would be more likely… If we clear the low, it appears that 1295.75 is a critical low…. but 1306.25 would likely be the next hurdle before that….

11:30 It backed off 1324.25…this is timing i believe and I smell 1330 area…

11:55 There is some resistance in this 1327 area…i am not a huge fan of resistance…unless I see the market clearly reject it…this appears to be more timing still….if we finish 12:00 under 1324.50…be very careful long unless 1326.50 is taken out…thats what I see here…

12:32 Dont see anything to suggest we wont go higher here…thus far…I thought 1322 area would be long…right on top of it…but it’s lunchtime :o) It appears to be far too early in the chart to exceed 1330 area…i would be careful up there long for now…IMO

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Morning Call - Futures Flat at 7:51 EST Same Story Different Day: Careful Long Early

March 31, 2008 4:57 AM

We have Chicago PMI out at 9:45 and that’s about all the news for today. There could be some news about new regulations on the investment banks, but that doesn’t seem to be a market mover, most likely. Today is end of month, end of of quarter, and this could result in moves that do not seem to make sense, chart wise. It is called “window dressing”. This is where the mutual funds load up on certain sectors/stocks so they can show their “clients” that they are making the right moves - when they have to disclose their end of quarter positions. Yes, another Wall St. headfake for the consumer, but that is the game. Pre-open low was 1309.50… Once again, be careful long early….

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Risky Market? Consider Exchange Traded Funds Instead Of Stocks

March 30, 2008 8:38 AM

As many investors in Bear Stearns would probably now attest, a little risk avoidance is probably a good thing right now with the uncertaintly surrounding the financial sector. One way to eliminate ” company collapse” risk is to invest/trade in ETF’s as opposed to specific stocks. In the “old days” there were only 4 (QQQ, SPY, DIA and SMH), but now there are more than you could possibly read about. They have them for very specific sectors like financials (XLF), retail (XRT), etc.

There are three basic types of ETF’s - Index, mathematical model based, and leveraged. QQQQ is an example of an index based ETF and should mimic the Nasdaq top 100 index. PowerShares use their own mathematical model and are not simply the underlying index. Lastly, ProShares Ullta ETF’s are highly leveraged and will move significantly more - in both directions - than the index. The leveraged ETF’s are generally a factor of 2 to 1. So make sure you undestand each before investing in them.

Here is a list of PowerShares ETF’s and you can also find the link on our home page.

PowerShares http://www.powershares.com/products/tickers.aspx

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If You Think We Are In A Bear Market…..

March 30, 2008 6:53 AM

If you believe that we are in a bear market (there is nothing yet to suggest we aren’t), then to make above average returns will require more of a trader mentality - do what they do. This means “buy the dips and sell the rips”. Basically this means enter at certain price points, take the 5% or 10% profit and exit - and wait for the next one.

This is what I believe the traders have been doing to the market for past few months. There is no confidence in sustained moves higher as evidenced by the lack of volume after rallies fade… That is why I consistently said last week….wait, wait, wait.

Look for our SB Numbers (or your own) and look to take profit early and often. If you had taken all the SB numbers thus far in March, both long and short, you would be up somewhere between 20% to 30% for the month. Not a bad return and certainly better than the Cramerica’s “buy and hope” followers. CHK alone was about 10% in a week on the long side in a bear week….

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Gold Stocks are Trades- Not Investments

March 29, 2008 3:41 PM

If you take the Cramer’s of the world advice and go long stocks such as AEM, NEM, GG, etc, you need to understand what you are doing. These stocks are “temporarily” priced on the gold euphoria and the implosion of the dollar. Therefore, if you buy these, you need to understand the dollar and gold. For instance, if the dollar ever puts in a bottom againt the Euro (it hasn’t as of yet, IMO) then gold related stocks will get crushed as the extreme views of gold at $2,000 an ounce will be gone. I had mentioned the day before the recent dollar plunge, that if the dollar breaks 1.4968 against the Euro, it is going to get crushed further….it did. Point being, that was when you had to be long gold and related stocks.

Let’s look at fundamentals. AEM has a PE ratio of 72. Assuming they can TRIPLE earnings, the PE would be about 23 - still a high valuation with possible downside risk. Now let’s assume they cannot increase profit’s by 300% going forward and long term. Well, you know what would happen - the stock would drop massively, probably by far more than 50%.

If you do not feel comfortable in predicting the price of either the dollar or gold into the future, these stocks should not be considered an investment. They are a trade.

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Every Good Investment Should Begin As A Good Trade - See Charts

March 29, 2008 11:12 AM

In another post I mentioned that every good investment should begin as a good trade. If you are correct on day 1 and day 3, it increases the odds that you will be correct on day 100 and vice versa. That is why we post our SB Numbers and also the Opinion History above for reference. We do not give opinions on the timeframe someone should hold the stock, that will depend on what they are trying to accomplish. We are trying to give good entry/exit points for a stock to begin the trade/investment on a positive note.

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StockBlade’s Numbers for CHK, AEM, JOYG, VLO, DE, XLF, GOOG, EK, AAPL, XRT

March 28, 2008 8:35 PM

Our numbers to be long or short/avoid long each stock were just updated. See Current SB Numbers on the main menu for the chart.

Written by · Filed Under AAPL, AEM, CHK, DE, EK, GOOG, JOYG, VLO, XLF, XOM | Leave a Comment

The Week Ending: My Call For Patience Paid Off….

March 28, 2008 1:04 PM

Today was pretty ugly…Monday could get very volatile…last day of the month and quarter… I believe 1330 is key on Monday….If we can get above that we “might” have a chance for further gains….

I have said many times I do not agree with all the talking heads about we have seen the “BOTTOM”. At the very least I am VERY skeptical of it… As I mentioned history says it is not the bottom….. I said to avoid longs recently because there was zero volume up top on the rally…no conviction = no real buyers….which means short covering bs rally….

On 03/24 after the close I said ALL financials were an avoid, sell, short. They fell 7.7%….

I also said I could not make many long calls all week as I simply didn’t believe in the rally….Correct, as it fell all week. Slow, painful to watch grind down, but it did fall.

Monday should be interesting….

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