Stock Comment
WLT Get’s Crushed As I Have Been Warning - Cramer Listeners Get Hammered Yet Again
I have been warning about chasing WLT higher as I viewed the move higher as marginally or not at all supported. In addition, I personally view being long a coal stock with a 50 PE as complete foolishness, but that is my opinion. I posted over a month ago that I believed energy stocks were trades and not investments, and nothing has changed my view on that. In fact, most have got completely crushed since that view was posted.
On 07/31 Cramer apparently was blowing his bull horn on WLT and mentioned more coal capacity for them or something like that. What did I say - NO. I may have looked dumb when it ran up after earnings but look a little bit smarter when it plunged over $18 today and it reached a high of $109.42 on Friday. Like I have long mentioned, WHY would you be long a stock at $109.42 when it has to clear $111.99 to even consider being long? It makes no sense and today proved that view. About time the market cooperates and does as “it should”.
08/4/08 9:59 PM
Past Picks
5 Trade Calls in Two weeks. Results? Up 22.8%. And All were at ALL time highs….
I made 5 trade calls in the last two weeks. Here is a summary of them. I used “probable” points of entry and exit as many of them I just said to get short as high as possible…. For profit calculation, I am going to assume you did not short the highs but simply shorted the open or near where I said. For instance, on March 17th you could have shorted CHK far higher…
March 10th:
AEM: Short it. Profit 2.3% in one day.
March 17th:
WLT: Short it. Profit 4.29% in one day
JOYG: Short it. Profit 3.31% in one day.
CHK: Short it. Profit 4.18% in one day.
March 19th:
CHK: Short it again. Profit 8.8% in 2 days.
03/21/08 4:02 PM
Cramerica
Cramer Believers: Post His Calls, I Will Go Head To Head
If we have any Cramer followers that are readers and they are willing to post all his calls in comments, I will post my views on each stock and see who wins. I am just some amateur “making calls out of his garage” so to speak, but I believe I can beat him, head to head. Considering that Leonard The Monkey allegedly routinely beats him, supposedly, this may not be a great feat. But would be a fun challenge, nonetheless.
I would rather go against a “real” advisor or hedge fund picker to make things more interesting. If i was friends with any, I would see if they would give it a whirl. Then again, no “professional” is going to risk their stature by possibly losing to some amateur blogger. So that seems very unlikely. But boy would that get me fired up.
But the timeframe would have to be defined as my calls are generally for 3 days, not 3 years. I am not “smart enough” to predict 3 years into the future. Then again, who is. The SP could be 800 or 1600 in 3 years, I have no idea and do not much care. All I know is if the SP becomes “long above x”, then it is. If that long carries 3 days, or 10 years, I have no idea. News will dictate long term, and I cannot predict news long term. Well, I did on GM, FNM and homebuilders, well and energy stocks - but other than that….
07/22/08 12:10 AM
Stock Watch
Stock Watch: IBM
In “theory” if the market sells down, as is likely, IBM should reverse above either $119.90 or $116.60. There has never been a rejection of a high on this stock. I long ago mentioned that IBM was “likely” to eventually clear it’s high as it has never rejected a high. This is based on charts. Obviously, if they had warned the stock would be lower. News can and will destroy any chart. But they didn’t.
I am still VERY skeptical of the market here, to say the least. There should be an attempt to hold the line above the Dow low. If you believe the market will hold (I personally do not) then IBM should be long above those numbers. If the Dow low does not hold, then who knows. But IBM should fare better than most others if we do in fact clear the Dow low.
07/22/08 12:01 AM
WELCOME TO STOCKBLADE
StockBlade.com: Every Investment Should Begin As A Positive TradeMany people think of “trading” in the markets as risky and a bad idea. The reality is that every investment begins as a trade. The only difference in the semantics is a perceived timeframe to hold the position. A “trader”... Read more »
TRADING SITE REVIEWS
Trading Site Review - I Have Been a Member Of This One For Years (watch video)There are probably hundreds, maybe thousands, of paid trade services that supposedly can make you money trading. I am normally very skeptical of them but there a small handful that I find very good. It is difficult to find a service... Read more »
TRADING CLASS 101
Trading Class 101: Understanding Gaps - A Very Important LessonProbably the most difficult thing in trading to understand is “gaps”. When the market or a stock makes a huge gap move from the previous day, where is the trade? If a stock gaps lower, should you sell and get out or buy... Read more »
Trading “Indicators”, MACD and Stochastic Debate
I would guess that at least 90%, probably over 95%, of all traders/investors that are not professionals look at a myriad of indicators. The most common are the MACD and Stochastic. There are at least 25 or 30 so called indicators that... Read more »
PRE-OPEN STOCKBLADE INSIGHT
Market Recap: Called Today’s Action On The Money Almost LiterallyI mentioned pre-open that the trade should be long but real strength may take some time. It took about an hour and we really got going to the upside. I also mentioned at the open that we HAD to clear 1285.50 on the futures to move... Read more »
INTRADAY SP FUTURES COMMENTARY
Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real StrengthOpening in the 1272-1273 range is actually good to be long. An open much higher would likely be sold. Be careful up top near 1285.50. We would have to clear that in order to make a run at 1302. I doubt we will challenge 1285 today,... Read more »
MOST RECENT STOCK COMMENT
Financials: Held Important LowAfter the close of 08/07 I said I expected a reversal attempt on ”further weakness” and it skyrocketed. I had also mentioned that I expected XLF to hold $19.25. Today it tried it again and got to a low of $19.61 before... Read more »
READER INTERACTION
Intraday Comments: Will Be Cutting Back On Intraday PostsHello readers, I am probably going to be posting less but still posting. The reason is that I started this as a fun blog, primarily for friends. Then readers came, and I felt more and more of an obligation to post more. The problem... Read more »
LATEST TALKING HEAD HYPE
Cramer Believers: Post His Calls, I Will Go Head To HeadIf we have any Cramer followers that are readers and they are willing to post all his calls in comments, I will post my views on each stock and see who wins. I am just some amateur “making calls out of his garage” so to speak, but... Read more »
INVESTMENT AND TRADING THOUGHTS
FDIC Report: 117 Financial Institutions In Trouble, One Big Problem, I Do Not Believe ItToday the FDIC came out with their report of possible troubled financial institution list. it counted 117 as possibly troubled, up from 90 the previous quarter.one small problem, I believe this nonsense like not at all. The only reason... Read more »
STOCKS TO WATCH
Stock Watch: IBMIn “theory” if the market sells down, as is likely, IBM should reverse above either $119.90 or $116.60. There has never been a rejection of a high on this stock. I long ago mentioned that IBM was “likely” to... Read more »
LATEST CALL
On April 24th: “UPS: Sell Here, $74 Is A Short”We posted on April 24th to sell UPS and if it went to $74 it would be a short. On May 2nd, it went to a high of $74.14. Currently, it is $70.29 and likely headed lower. (Update: We also posted to cover that short at about $70.00... Read more »
ARTICLES OF INTEREST
Trading: Managing RiskTrading is very difficult and I have mentioned before that most of the people that attempt it should not as they do not understand what they are doing. Most people largely guess. Therefore, they cannot possibly manage risk because... Read more »
DAILY TRADING RESULTS
Daily Trading ResultsI am going to start posting my SP futures end of day trading results in this section. As I have mentioned, I generally just trade paper - for now. The reason for this was that I lost $15,000 2.5 years ago when I first attempted it.... Read more »
CURRENT VIEWS
Current ViewsHere is a summary of our current views on particular sectors of the economy and market. I am not sure you can “trade” it as the markets can be wrong for a very, very long time. Economy: Very Negative Market: Negative* Bonds:... Read more »
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Recent Commentary
- Market Recap: Called Today’s Action On The Money Almost Literally
- Market Update: My Note On Caution at 1285 Has Proved Correct Thus Far
- Market Open 1272: Trade Should Be Long Checkdowns, But May Take Some Time For Real Strength
- Morning Call: Futures Move Higher On Durable Goods
- FDIC Report: 117 Financial Institutions In Trouble, One Big Problem, I Do Not Believe It
- Consumer Confidence Up? This Is Clearly An Indictment On Public Education
- Market Direction: While The Chart Still Says Long….
- Market Recap: 1261 Held once Again
- Market Update: Market Was Bought Early, 3:00 EST Is Likely Key
- Market Open: 1263.25 Early Low
- Morning Call: Futures Flat, New Home Sales At 10:00, FOMC Minutes Late
- Market Recap: My Gap Rule Ruled The Day
- Market Update: 1261 Should Hold - If Not We May See Panic
- Open: 1285, 1282.75 Still Important
- Morning Call: Decision Time
- Market Update: Typical Trend Day Higher Early As Predicted, Now The Outcome Is Clearly In Doubt
- Market Open: Watch The Gap Reaction
- Morning Call: Futures Up, Long All CheckDowns Early Should Be Play
Our Mascot Trading Goal: Ferrari 599
